Philadelphia 76ers vs. Denver Nuggets – March 30, 2021

By Dean McHugh in NBA
| March 30, 2021 7:57 am PDT

The 76ers take on the Nuggets in this highly anticipated heavyweight NBA basketball matchup. Philadelphia leads the pack in the Eastern Conference, but the Nets are snapping away at their heels, and therefore they need to win tonight to maintain their advantage. The Nuggets sit fifth in the West, but with an automatic playoff spot looking assured, they only have their sights set on the teams above them.

These two teams have alternated wins over the previous six meetings, which, if that continued tonight, would mean the 76ers would leave Denver with the win. However, the Nuggets won their most recent encounter only two months ago, and therefore it will be fresh in both teams’ minds. The Nuggets dominated the game from the middle of the second quarter on their way to an impressive 12-point win. They shot particularly well from field goal range, and they will be hard to beat tonight if they can replicate that shooting performance. It is worth noting that the 76ers had a seriously depleted lineup that night due to injuries and quarantine.

The Nuggets will also take encouragement because they have won the previous two games played in Denver between these two.

Here are the game odds, my team analysis, and betting prediction.

76ers vs. Nuggets Match Odds

76ers +4.5-110
Nuggets -4.5-110
76ers To Win+170
Nuggets To Win-190
Over 220.5 Points-110
Under 220.5 Points-110

I am amazed that the 76ers are the underdogs here, let alone have a 4.5-point lead! The points total has been cut by a couple of points since the betting opened but still looks a couple of points on the high side.

The 76ers have a terrible record as the underdogs this season; having lost seven of the 11 games, they have been considered the outsiders.

76ers News

The 76er’s four-game win streak came to an end last time out against the Clippers. The last time they had a winning streak ended, they didn’t take too kindly to it and won the next four games, and the time before that, they won six in a row. They haven’t lost back-to-back games since the middle of February, and they will be hoping to uphold that here tonight.

Philadelphia has a solid record on the road this season, having won 13 and lost ten of their 23 Road trips. The defeat against the Clippers also ended a run of six straight wins on their travels. The last time they lost a game on the road following a winning streak, they lost the next three games.

Here are the latest betting trends for Philadelphia:

Bet Type Trend
ATS Philadelphia is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games.
Total Five of their previous seven matches have gone under the betting total.
SU They have only lost two of their last 12 games.
ATS The 76ers have won six of their previous eight matches against the Nuggets.
ATS Philadelphia has only lost one of their last 11 games in Denver.
ATS They have won six of their previous seven games against teams from the west coast.
Total Seven of their last eight games against teams based in the Northwest Division have gone over the points total.

This shows what great form the 76ers come into this game in and how well they have done against the spread when facing the Nuggets. It also confirms the question I posed earlier, how are they the outsiders to win this game?

The 76ers have a very good offense this season that is a match for most teams in the league. However, they haven’t performed as well in attack on the road and have averaged three points less per game.

For a team that is doing as well as they are this season, you would imagine that they would use the ball better than they do as they make a high number of turnovers per night. However, this hasn’t become too much of an issue due to their fantastic defensive rebounding and many steals made per game.

Their defense has similar abilities and would be considered marginally better than their offense. They have reduced their opponents to an average field goal percentage of 45%, highlighting how well they have marked and covered them.

They are also amongst the best defensive rebounding teams in the league, averaging 36 rebounds per game. Their offensive rebounding isn’t too bad either, making them the fourth-best unit in the NBA this season.

The 76ers are also making the most blocks per game in the league this season.

Here they are, preparing for tonight’s game.

The 76ers are still missing star player Embiid, while new acquisition Hill is missing with a thumb injury.

Nuggets News

The Nuggets are also in good form, having only lost three of their previous 14 games. They come into this match on a two-game win streak. The last time they won back-to-back games, they went on to win a third against the Bulls.

They have a good record at home that is almost identical to Philadelphia’s away record as they have won 13 and lost nine of their 22 games played at the Ball Arena. Denver has won four of their previous five games, with their only loss during that period coming against the Pelicans. That was a tight game that could have gone either way and ultimately, it was the Nugget’s bad rebounding that let them down on the night.

Here are the latest betting trends for Denver:

Bet Type Trend
Total Four of their previous five matches have gone over the betting total.
SU The Nuggets have only lost one of their last nine games against opponents from the Eastern Conference.
ATS They have lost five of their previous six matches against teams based in the Atlantic Division.
Total The total has gone under in four of their last five games played on a Tuesday.

There aren’t any trends to follow, unfortunately, as they all contradict each other.

The Nuggets have one of the best offenses in the league this season, predominantly down to their sharpshooting. They are ranked second in the field goal rankings and fifth in the three-pointer rankings, proving they can hurt you from all over the court.

They use the ball much better than the 76ers as they have amassed the third-highest number of assists this season. This could certainly be their key to victory tonight.

They also have a good defense that matches up to the 76ers defense pretty well. This is despite allowing their opponents to score at a field goal rate of 47%.

Denver looks strong this season, and the addition of Aaron Gordon could see them go deep in the playoffs this season. Gordon was the subject of great interest as we approached the trade deadline, but the Nuggets won the race for his signature. He has been impressed with his teammates and believes they have what it takes to go all the way this season.

The 76ers will miss Morris for tonight’s game, while Whittington faces a late fitness test.

76ers vs. Nuggets Betting Pick

Pick
  • Under 220.5 Points
    -110

 This is a tight game that could certainly go either way. Although the 76ers are missing Embiid, they have fared well without him when he has been missing this season. The Nuggets rely heavily on their accurate shooting, and if the 76ers can shave a couple of percent off of their figures, which they have done against most teams this season, they could nullify their attack. However, they will have to cut down on the number of turnovers they are making against a side that uses the ball so well and creates many scoring opportunities. On paper this matchup is next to as close as you can get and therefore, I have to side with the team who is given the lead. Take the 76era with the handicap to win this one.

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