New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Thursday Night Football Prediction and Pick (Week 11)

By Dan Vasta in NFL
| November 16, 2021 12:00 pm PDT

The New England Patriots are catching fire in the AFC thanks to controlling the line of scrimmage and playing outstanding football.

Bill Belichick is the most accomplished coach, and many wondered if his franchise would get back into contention this season. Well, there may not be another team that has more momentum than New England.

Their defense has played outstanding, and the Falcons are coming in without any momentum. Dallas demolished Atlanta, and now they are searching for answers.

This nationally televised clash between the Patriots and the Falcons starts the Week 11 statement. Here are your latest odds at

Patriots vs. Falcons Odds

Patriots (-6.5)-112
Falcons (+6.5)-108
Patriots to Win-265
Falcons to Win+225
Over 47-110
Under 47-110

These two squared off at Super Bowl 51. The post-Tom Brady era has been a challenging start for New England, but they have now covered in four straight games.

The Patriots have had their struggles in their past ten games as the road favorite. They have gone 4-6 against the spread, but that is similar to Atlanta.

The Falcons have been losing a bunch as the home underdog. ATL has lost six of their past seven games outright with a 3-4 against the spread.

For those that enjoy gambling, check out our complete guide to understanding prop bets. It is time to dissect the latest keys to victory for TNF between the Patriots and Falcons.

Why the Patriots Will Win

Quarterback Matt Ryan is a polished veteran, and he has had an impressive career thus far. Mac Jones is up there as one of the top rookies in 2021. Jones has orchestrated an exceptional offense in the past four games.

The ability to run downhill with a bevy of different backs has been vital for their success. New England has a few studs that have been able to dominate. Rhamondre Stevenson toted the rock 20 times for 100 yards with two touchdowns.

  • Week 7: 551 yards against Jets (54-13 win)
  • Week 8: 352 yards against Chargers (27-24 win)
  • Week 9: 273 yards against Panthers (24-6 win)
  • Week 10: 452 yards against Browns (45-7 win)

The ability to run downhill with a bevy of different backs have been vital for their success. New England has a few studs that have been able to dominate. Rhamondre Stevenson toted the rock 20 times for 100 yards with two touchdowns.

Brandon Bolden dominated when he had the limited touches as well. Kendrick Bourne even made plays running the ball and made plays down the field, hauling in a few passes.

Jacobi Meyers and Hunter Henry raised their game and showed up against the Falcons on occasion. Every skill player has stepped up perfectly to contribute to the master plan of Bill Belichick.

New England is a solid road favorite, but deservedly so. There may not be a better team playing in the conference these days. The ability to get off the field on defense has allowed their offense to have a great field position. The squad has made the most of their opportunities. They will likely grind the game out on the ground against a defense that has struggled against adversity.

Why the Falcons Will Win

Matt Ryan carved up the Patriots in Super Bowl 51. He is capable of doing the same in clutch situations. On paper and with momentum, it could get ugly.

However, Kyle Pitts is one of the more unique tight ends in the NFL. As a rookie, he has been off the charts and will be the top target for Ryan in the Falcons passing attack. In the four wins by Atlanta, their star passer played his best games in terms of yards and touchdowns.

  • In Losses: Seven total touchdowns, 202 yards per game, 64.3% completion
  • In Wins: Nine total touchdowns, 316 yards per game, 71.5% completing

Atlanta goes as their signal-caller performs. When he is under duress and behind the sticks, the team becomes predictable and easy to defend. Even without Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Cordarrelle Patterson, they are an NFL offense capable of exposing solid defenses.

Another reason for optimism for the Falcons is the lack of explosive weapons in New England. They have been productive, but the offense has moved the ball methodically.

Atlanta may need to come away with a few turnovers, but a rookie quarterback could cough it up a few times on the road. We have seen upsets with much higher point spreads, so this could be the upset of the week.

If you are unsure where to place a wager, check out our site on the top NFL betting sites.

Patriots vs. Falcons Prediction

The Falcons are going to need to play one of their best defensive performances of the season. New England is the better-coached squad that rarely makes crucial mistakes.

Jones is going to continue taking care of the ball and allowing the game to come to him. Bank on the Patriots sweating one out but finding a way to grab another victory.

The season has been wacky, but they are far too dominant on the defensive end to let this one go by the wayside. New England may not make it look pretty, but they will find a way to get the job done on TNF by staying balanced on offense.

Patriots vs. Falcons Pick

  • Patriots to Win

New England is laying nearly a touchdown, and their ability to win the battle of the trenches has made them an AFC contender. New England is the better team on both sides of the ball, and they will be leading most of this game.

Atlanta should put up a better performance against New England than they did against Dallas. However, it won’t be enough, and the Patriots will come out victorious with their fifth straight win. Take the moneyline and avoid getting burned with the points.



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