New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Wild Card Prediction – NFL, Saturday (2022)

| January 12, 2022 12:33 pm PDT

The second Wild Card game of the week will be the Patriots taking on the Bills. These two teams have played each other twice this season and this is shaping up to be their best one yet.

They have split the regular season series at one game a piece, so this will be an appropriate tie breaker. The Bills were able to win the AFC East with a record of 11-6, which means they get home field advantage.

The Patriots were a very good team this season and finished 10-7. I don’t think a lot of people expected them to be good again this fast with a rookie quarterback at the helm.

Let’s take a look at the odds for this exciting AFC Wild Card matchup between the 3rd seed Bills and the 6th seed Patriots.

Odds for Patriots vs. Bills

New England Patriots +4-110
Buffalo Bills -4-110
Over 44.5-110
Under 44.5-110

The Patriots are rarely ever underdogs and with good reason. Since 2003, the Patriots have an underdog record of 27-25. The Steelers are the only other team during that time with a winning record as an underdog (49-48).

Buffalo is certainly a good enough team to be one of the few favored over the Patriots in forever. They have Super Bowl hopes, but the Wild Card is not going to be easy for them.

The public is about 2/3s on the Bills’ spread and moneyline, while about the same is on the over. Patriots’ games have gone over in 9 out of 17 games (52.9%), while the Bills have hit the over 8 out of 17 (47.1%).

You can find these exact odds on BetOnline, so head over there to place your bets.

Why the Patriots Will Win

I would strongly recommend betting against the Patriots as little as possible. Bill Belichick has been a playoffs wizard and it would not be too big of a surprise for him to make another deep run.

His team this season has a bit of a twist to it than it’s usual postseason look. The biggest difference will be the quarterback position. Mac Jones has been great this season, but the playoffs are another animal, especially for a rookie.

The Patriots were able to beat the Bills the first time this season, but the weather played a major role in that game. Mac Jones just threw 3 passes (2 completions), but New England was able to win 14-10.

The second time around, the Bills were able to win. Jones struggled mightily against the Bills top tier defense, throwing for 145 yards on 32 pass attempts. He only completed 14 of those attempts, which made for his worst game in the completion percentage department (43.75%).

Jones also threw 2 interceptions and fumbled once as well. Luckily for the Patriots, they were able to recover the ball. The Bills will be looking to repeat their success against Jones and the Patriots’ offense again, so he has to make adjustments.

You can’t just run the ball every play and expect to win despite them doing exactly that in Week 13. Jones has to take care of the football and just keep the offense moving. If he does that, New England’s rushing attack and defense can lead them to a win.

This game is going to be in Buffalo and under 30 degrees as well. The Patriots might be better off playing with hazardous weather conditions if they want to beat the Bills again.

Why the Bills Will Win

Buffalo proved themselves in their second game against the Patriots. Their first game was just terrible and they also gave up a 64 yard touchdown that could have been the difference. In their latest win over the Patriots, Josh Allen led them to a win and their defense played great too.

Allen completed 30 out of 47 passes for 314 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also added 64 more rushing yards on the ground, which also helped them hold on to the ball. The Bills dominated the time of possession (35:09 to 24:51) and will be looking to repeat their success in the Wild Card round.

I already mentioned the Bills success against Mac Jones, so another game like last time would do wonders for this team. Jones has a bright future, especially in New England, but he still could struggle mightily in this game.

The Bills’ defense has very few holes. They have suffocated opposing quarterbacks to just 163 passing yards per game, which is 24.1 yards better than the next team (New England, 187.1). They have also allowed just 17.0 points per game, which ranks first in the NFL.

The Bills have definitely had their low moments this season, but they remain one of the most well rounded teams in the NFL.

Josh Allen is an MVP caliber player, while they have an elite defense and great playmakers.

Don’t be surprised if the Bills take care of the Patriots and make it all the way to the Super Bowl this season. They certainly have the capability to do so.

My Pick for Patriots vs. Bills

If you caught the NCAA Football Championship game, you would have seen Bill Belichick’s friend Nick Saban lose a big game he often wins. The Alabama dynasty is much like the Patriots, so it would be a fitting ending to their 2021-22 season for the Patriots to lose this game.

I didn’t see enough from Mac Jones in his recent game against Buffalo and I think he struggles again in this one. I will be taking the Bills to win, but the spread is a bit too tricky for me.

If you want to get better odds, you can take the Bills -4, but you have to sacrifice that risk. I will be taking their moneyline to play it more safely. I also like the under with the amazing talent these teams’ defenses possess.

Head over to the best NFL betting sites to place your bets.

Also be sure to check out our NFL picks page for more recommended bets.

  • Bills to Win
Anthony Haage

Anthony is a sports writer for covering the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and more. He also covers other various topics such as entertainment, general sports betting tips, and more.

His favorite teams are the Chicago Bears, Bulls, Cubs, and Blackhawks. He also will be a temporary fan of any team if it means winning him bets.

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