Orlando Magic vs. Memphis Grizzlies – NBA, April 30, 2021

By Dean McHugh in NBA
| April 30, 2021 7:44 am PDT

The Grizzlies host the Magic in Memphis as they chase down the Mavericks in the hunt for Divisional glory. Memphis finds themselves three wins behind Dallas in the Southwest Division, and if they stand any chance of catching them, they cannot afford a slip up here.

The Magic are routed at the foot of the Eastern Conference, but a win in this one could potentially lift them above the Pistons so they will have their own agenda.

And they should be confident of obtaining that win tonight as they have beaten the Grizzlies on six of the last seven occasions they have met, including winning the previous three.

However, the games in Memphis have tended to be much closer as they have alternated wins over the last four encounters. If that trend continues tonight, then the Grizzlies will come out on top here.

Over the previous ten battles between these teams, the Magic have averaged six more points than the Grizzlies.

Magic vs. Grizzlies Odds

Magic +12-110
Grizzlies -12-110
Magic to Win+750
Grizzlies to Win-900
Over 223 Points-110
Under 223 Points-110

The spread is two or three points bigger than I thought it would be here and makes for exciting reading.

However, it’s the points total that interests me most here as it looks like a good five to six points on the high side.

The Grizzlies have an excellent record of 10-4 as the betting favorites against teams from the east.

Matching Up the Magic

The Magic’s win over Cleveland last time out ended a run of six straight defeats. Although they appeared to have forgotten how to win as they blew a 23-point lead in the fourth quarter, but pulled away with 45 seconds remaining to pick up the win.

The win came out of the blue as they had lost their previous four matches by margins of 16, 35, 19, and 11.

Orlando has a treacherous away record, having won nine and lost 20 of their 29 games on the road this season. However, their form has picked up recently as they have picked up four of those nine wins in their previous eight away matches.

Here are the latest betting trends for Orlando.

Bet Type Trend
ATS Orlando is 1-5-1 in their previous seven matches.
Total Eight of their last nine games have gone over the betting total.
ATS They have won five of their previous seven matches against the Grizzlies.
Total Only one of their last seven games on the road has failed to go over the points total.
SU The Magic have lost 15 of their previous 18 visits to Memphis.
SU They have only won two of their last 14 games.
Total All of their previous seven matches against Western Conference opponents have gone over the betting total.
ATS Orlando has lost four of their last five games against teams based in the Southwest Division.

Orlando has one of the worst attacks in the league, predominantly down to their horrific shooting. They are ranked bottom of the league from the field goal range as they have an abysmal success rate of only 43%. Their three-point shooting is only ranked marginally better, so it’s clear there is a lack of ability within this area.

However, their lack of creativity and decisiveness with the ball hasn’t helped. This is highlighted by the fact they have made a low number of assists and turnovers this season. Again, this appears to be an issue with ability rather than coaching, as they are an exceptionally well-drilled and disciplined team, and that has to come from their training regime.

Hopefully, the recent addition of the well-travelled Moritz Wagner can help their attack. Wagner has played for both the Wizards and the Celtics this season, but he has failed to find a permanent home. He has until the end of the season to prove his worth to Orlando, and their fans will be hoping the ex-Wizard has the Magic required to unlock defenses.

Their defense is better, but it is still sub-standard as they are conceding on average 112-points per game.

The Magic have a long list of absentees, which has crippled them this season. For this game, they will miss Porter Junior, Isaac, Fultz, Okeke, and Cannady. As well as these, Ross is listed as doubtful and Carter-Williams as questionable.

Matching Up the Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have alternated back-to-back wins with back-to-back defeats over their last eight games. They will be hoping that trend continues as it will mean they slide back into the win column here.

However, they will be concerned about how they lost their previous two games as they got thumped by 24-points against the Nuggets and 21-points by the Trail Blazers last time out.

Their record at home has been poor as they have won 13 and lost 17 of their 30 games played in Memphis this season. They have lost three of their last four home games, including losing the two most recent matches. This is the first time they have lost back too back home games since the beginning of March.

Here are the latest betting trends for Memphis.

Bet Type Trend
ATS Memphis is 13-5 in their previous 18 matches.
Total Four of their last five games have gone under the betting total.
SU They have only won two of their previous six matches.
Total Only two of their last six games against the Magic have failed to go under the points total.
ATS The Grizzlies have won ten of their previous 13 home matches.
Total Six of their last seven games against teams from the east coast have gone over the betting total.
SU They have won all of their most recent seven matches against teams in the Southeast Division.

The Grizzlies have a good offense that is bordering on the top ten attacks in the league. If they can improve upon their poor three-point shooting, I’m sure they would move into the top ten.

Their biggest asset is their rebounding which is exceptional at both ends of the court and has undoubtedly been their key to victory on many occasions this season. Jonas Valaciunas has been a critical player in this department for the Grizzlies, and he has been described as an elite rebounder this season, which is why he is getting more and more minutes each game.

Unlike their opponents tonight, the Grizzlies do use the ball well, and they make a lot of assists per game. However, where they are similar is they like to hold on to the ball, and whoever does this best could win the game.

However, their attack has flopped at home this season, and they are averaging four fewer points per game. It would appear that their shooting completely deserts them at home for one reason or another.

Their defense is lacking and needs some work, especially if they want to try and topple the Mavericks for the top spot in the Division.

They have been relatively good at defending against teams who like to shoot from deep but going up against the Magic; you don’t feel this will come in to play much. This has resulted from their good full-court pressing game, which has led to the most number of steals in the league this season.

The Grizzlies have a fully fit team tonight, which is a rarity at this stage of the season.

Magic vs. Grizzlies Betting Pick

There is no doubt in my mind that the Grizzlies will pick up the win here tonight. However, given their recent performances, I couldn’t back them against the spread with any confidence.

I am going to stick with my original train of thought and go with under the points total. Both teams like to hold on to the ball, which could hinder the number of points scored.

Also, over the last ten meetings between these two, they are averaging a combined total of over ten points fewer than the total set here. They are also averaging a combined total of five points less per game this season.

Pick
  • Under 223 Points
    -110

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