Best Bets for the 2021 Open de España – European Tour Predictions

| October 4, 2021 3:46 pm PDT

The European Tour is off to Spain for a three-week stay. First on the docket is the 2021 Open de España, returning to Club de Campo Villa de Madrid for a second straight year.

Installed as low as +200 as some of the top sites, Jon Rahm is a massive favorite to be the last man standing. The #1-ranked player in the world aims to win this event for the third consecutive time; he torched the field by 5 at this same venue the last time he was here (2019).

If you’re banking on Rahm getting it done in Madrid and simply want to find his best price, you can latch onto Jon at +260 at MyBookie. Those of you snooping around for additional Open de España picks, I’ve got some names in mind.

Top Picks for the Open de España in 2021

Rahm’s undoubtedly the top pick, although a +260 price tag in a full field event doesn’t get me excited. The good news is Rahm’s presence has created such a large gap on the betting sheet that all sorts of value has emerged.

How often are you going to see just five players priced under +5000 at a professional golf tournament?

I can’t think of any other occasions quite like this. 

Guido Migliozzi (+4000)

After hitting one of the luckiest golf shots of the year on the final hole of the last week’s tournament, it’s safe to say that Guido Migliozzi is riding some positive vibes. Not only should Guido expect to play well at this week’s event – he’s one of four players in this field ranked in the top 75 in the OWGR (Rahm, Victor Perez, Bernd Wiesberger) – but the 24-year-old Italian has been knocking on the door for nearly six months.

Migliozzi has posted four top-10s since the middle of May. This includes two solo seconds and a T4 at the US Open.

Fresh off a T17 in Scotland, Guido sits 2nd on the European Tour in stroke average in 2021.

Matthias Schmid (+5000)

Forgive me for sounding like a broken record; I can’t help but tout Matti Schmid at this price against this field. Coming off another solid showing at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, Schmid has registered top-11 finishes in four of his last five starts. This includes a 9th-2nd-9th burst upon arriving in Spain.

How hot is Matthias?

The German sensation has racked up 44 birdies and two eagles over the last two weeks.

It’s been an incredible start to his professional career, having just turned pro in July. I’m looking to ride this wave all the way to the finish line.

Sleeper Picks for the Open de España in 2021

We’ve seen under-the-radar names emerge at this event plenty of times throughout history. Jon Rahm won here in 2018, but check out who won this tournament the two years before that.

Winners of the Open de España
Year Winner OWGR Entering the Week
2016 Andrew Johnston 224
2015 James Morrison 290

*event canceled in 2017 and 2020

Scrolling the odds sheet looking for European Tour picks with a significant amount of upside, here’s what I found.

Alejandro Cañizares (+11000)

  • OWGR: 342

Sitting at +11000 at some of the best golf betting sites, Alejandro Cañizares will be right at home this week. Born right here in Madrid, this 38-year-old Spaniard is in the midst of a seven-year drought since his last European Tour victory.

Having said that, Cañizares has a couple of T3s on his recent game log and knows this golf course well. Alejandro made just five bogeys at this venue in 2019 en route to finishing T17.

Jeff Winther (+12500)

  • OWGR: 287

Among the indicators that hint toward a good performance, recent form and past results at the golf course at hand are at the top of the list. If you applied this process before locking in Open de España predictions, surely you would have landed on Jeff Winther.

The 33-year-old Danish golfer finished T4 at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid in 2019. He posted red numbers in all four rounds, including firing a tournament-low 63 in the final round.

In terms of the “what have you done for me lately” department, Winther tallied a T14 at last week’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

It’s certainly a shot in the dark, but his +12500 odds set up for an awfully nice return.

Are you ready to shift gears and fire some bets into the PGA Tour action in Vegas?

Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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