Safest NFL Picks for Week 15 of the 2021 Season
Week 14 was the last week of byes, while Week 15 gives us a ton of games to bet on. As we know, the NFL is an extremely tough thing to predict. You can feel so confident in a pick and everything can go wrong.
With that being said, it is important to make safe bets in order to give yourself a chance at winning some money back. You always need a couple of bets that you build your bet sheet around and these bets are a great place to start.
Here are 4 of the safest picks of Week 15 of the 2021 NFL season.
Buffalo Bills -10.5 (-110)
The Bills will be coming off a tough overtime loss to the Buccaneers in Week 14. They came into this season as the favorite to win the AFC East, but the Patriots are starting to distance themselves in first place.
The final. ? pic.twitter.com/5v6OY8Tae2— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 13, 2021
This becomes crunch time for the Bills, making every week a must win from here on out. They have to prove they were worth the hype coming into this season. The Panthers are a very beatable team and a win here can give them some confidence heading down the stretch.
The Bills can be a very dangerous team when they play to their full potential. They have a high flying offense and a top tier defense that keeps them in every game. They have some things they can improve on as every team does, but they can beat any team in any week.
Something that stands out when looking at the Bills is their tendency to pass more than they should. They are actually averaging 4.8 yards per carry, which ranks 4th best in the entire NFL. You would think they would run a decent amount since they have success doing so, but they rank 18th in the league with 329 rushing attempts this season.
Complementary football is a must have when you want to compete at the highest level. You can’t just throw it deep with Josh Allen every play and expect that to work. NFL defenses know how to force you to do stuff you don’t want to. The Bills need to be able to run the ball more in order to keep defenses off balance.
The Bills defense has been playing at a very high level again this season. They allow a quarterback rating of 67.7 (lowest in NFL), have 16 interceptions (3rd most), and allow a 58.8% pass completion rate (3rd lowest in NFL). Buffalo faces a Panthers’ offense this week who is prone to turning the ball over and being very inconsistent. They should be able to have a great day on the defensive side of the ball.
Jets vs. Dolphins Under 42.5 (-115)
We have an AFC East matchup between the Jets and the Dolphins this week. This will be their second game of the season, as the Dolphins won the first one 24-17 in Week 11. Just looking at the score from that game, you can see that the under would hit this total as well.
The Dolphins are coming off their bye and are currently on a 5 game winning streak. They should be able to make it 6 in this one, but the 8.5 point spread seems risky to me. I like the under here more than I like the spread or moneyline (-385).
Both of these teams average under 20 points per game, ranking 25th (Dolphins) and 29th (Jets). Neither of them can effectively run the ball (Dolphins 3.3 yards per carry, Jets 3.9 yards per carry). They are also comparable in passing yards, ranking 17th (Dolphins) and 18th (Jets).
If this game doesn’t feature any crazy big plays like kick returns or defensive touchdowns, this game should be able to hit the under.
Dallas Cowboys -10.5 (-105)
Another team I like against the spread this week is the Cowboys. They are coming off a 27-20 point win over the Washington Football Team and will now face the Giants. The Giants are one of the most frustrating teams in the NFL and the Cowboys should be able to beat them for the second time this season.
The Giants don’t have a lot of things going for them. They are better on defense than they are on offense, but aren’t in the top 10 in run or pass defense. There is also speculation that Daniel Jones’ season is over with a neck injury. They are constantly battling injuries in New York and this season will go down as another disappointing one.
I am a bit surprised by the spread for this week’s game considering how the Cowboys dominated them in their first matchup. Even if the Giants played better than their first game, I still trust the Cowboys to win by 11 or more.
Titans vs. Steelers Over 41.5 (-110)
This game between the Titans and Steelers has potential to be very hard to predict. The Titans have been inconsistent since the Derrick Henry injury, while the Steelers are very hot and cold. I think the point total for this game is very low considering how these teams have played this year.
The Steelers run defense has been absolutely terrible this year, giving up 5.0 yards per carry (worst in NFL). We just saw Dalvin Cook run for over 200 yards against them last week and the Titans love to run the ball. I like the Titans to win this one for that reason too, but I think the over is a safer bet.
The Steelers are very inconsistent, but if they get behind the Titans like they did last week to the Vikings, they can put up some points. The Steelers actually score the 10th most points per game in the second half this season. This can be a very similar game that we saw last week between the Steelers and Vikings, where the score total was a whopping 64 points.
A realistic score for this game could be 24-20, which would make the over by a few points. I expect this one to be a higher scoring matchup despite the low point total line offered right now.
Safest Picks for the NFL Week 15
With how hard it is to predict NFL games, you have to make sure you are placing reliable bets. Thes 4 bets have a high chance of hitting in their games this week. I would strongly recommend building your betting sheet around these bets, because you never want to risk too much.
If you are interested in what the rest of the NFL betting lines are, check out our Week 15 Breakdown and Advice.