Upset Picks for NFL Week 9, 2020

My NFL upset picks didn’t crush last week. I mean, for a second there, the Lions, 49ers, and even the Cowboys all seemed like they had a shot.

Alas, the only underdog play that panned out was the Steelers. But hey, I will take a +160 price in a hostile environment against a rival to stay perfect.

That’s a significant win, and one we can hang our hat on.

I like some more value picks going into the new week, and you can get a broader sense of how I feel about this slate in my early week nine NFL betting lines breakdown.

If you’re ready to jump in and place some bets, head over to the best NFL betting websites.

For value I really want to attack specifically, you can check out my NFL upset picks in week nine.

The Atlanta Falcons have played better football ever since firing head coach Dan Quinn. They even beat the Panthers last week, and will be favored at home in week nine.

Unfortunately, the Falcons will probably be without Calvin Ridley.

Calvin Ridley has been ruled OUT for the game with an ankle injury pic.twitter.com/fjbpPXypal

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 30, 2020

I also still don’t really trust their defense, which prior to the Quinn canning was dreadful. They also are historically bad at closing games, and after Denver just completed a miraculous comeback last week, worlds collide and give me a fun value bet.

Drew Lock is a guy a lot of people are on the fence about, but I like his moxie, his arm talent, and his supporting cast. He’s got enough to work with here to stage the upset, and trusting in the Falcons in any capacity just isn’t something sports bettors should be doing.

Denver should be booming with confidence after winning last week, and at 3-4, their playoff hopes are still alive. I think they get a big road win to creep back to .500, and they can return nice value for bettors in the process.

It looks as though the Miami Dolphins may have a defense. They shut out the New York Jets not too long ago, and this week they slapped around the Los Angeles Rams.

The @MiamiDolphins now have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the NFL at 18.5 points per game.

— Travis Wingfield (@WingfieldNFL) November 1, 2020

I don’t really see Miami stifling the Arizona Cardinals, of course. In fact, one of my week 9 NFL locks is this game pushing over 48 total points.

We can have two bets to fall in love with, though. The first bet to target is the Over, but Miami should be up to the challenge.

Tua Tagovailoa didn’t have a particularly easy matchup for his NFL debut, but in this one he might. Arizona’s pass defense can be good, but on the year, this defense as a whole is still giving up a lot of production.

Russell Wilson torched this defense two weeks ago, while Arizona could be a little vulnerable after taking a break on their bye this past week.

Miami has some momentum, they have the defense, and they have the young quarterback ready for an iconic duel. They offer solid value at +185 and are in position for a playoff push at 4-3, so there’s all of the incentive in the world for them to get the job done.

One of my favorite week nine NFL bets is the Bears to beat a 6-point spread, and it has everything to do with a soft matchup against the Tennessee Titans.

Tennessee is very good offensively, but their upside could be canceled out a bit against the Bears. Chicago has a rock-solid defense, and it tends to tighten up in the red-zone.

More specifically, the Bears might be able to slow down Tennessee’s explosive nature, and once/if the Titans get close to scoring, Chicago may force them to kick more than they’d like.

Yes, Chicago’s offense has left a lot to be desired, but this Titans defense could help them out. They just got carved up by the Cincinnati Bengals, after all.

The Bears are the least safe bet of this week’s NFL upset picks, to be sure. However, they have a terrific price, and they’ll want to get back on the winning trail now that they’re a game behind the Green Bay Packers in the race for the NFC North division.

The goal of my weekly NFL upset picks is to point out values that not only are appealing and are worth targeting, but also have a really good chance of converting.

The New York Jets were an insane price last week, and in a sense, were worth betting on. But were they truly good bets to take down the Chiefs? Of course not.

Going into week nine, there are a handful of NFL underdog picks that really look like great bets, and the three above slide into that category for me.

If you plan on betting online this week and want to throw caution to the wind, these games look like a good place to start.

For more week 9 NFL betting advice, check out the following posts.