Upset Picks for NFL Week 5, 2020
Last week was a disaster as far as volume goes with my weekly NFL upset picks. Until Sunday Night Football arrived, of course, and the Philadelphia Eagles made it all worth it with a sick road upset over the San Francisco 49ers.
New York couldn’t beat the Broncos. Chicago couldn’t compete with Indy. And the Jaguars handed the Bengals their first win of the year.
But Carson Wentz and co. rescued hopeful bettors in the end, capitalizing on 49ers turnovers and returning elite betting value at a sweet +250 price tag.
Hopefully, you hopped on that pick and saw some profit on the week. We aim high again, as we take a look at the top underdogs to target in our week five NFL upset picks.
Cleveland Browns (+125)
Don’t look now, but the Browns are positively on fire right now. Cleveland has rebounded nicely from a devastating blowout loss in week one and has ripped off three wins in a row.
Just like that, the once floundering Cleveland franchise is 3-1 and looking like a real playoff threat.
Cleveland can halt their progress and take a step backward as underdogs against the Indianapolis Colts this week, but I don’t see it happening.
Indy’s defense is legit, but the Browns are an attractive home dog, and their offense is clicking with 30+ points in each of their last three games.
We do have to pay mind to the absence of top running back Nick Chubb, who is out for multiple weeks with a knee sprain.
Browns' RB Nick Chubb is being placed on IR with an MCL injury, per Kevin Stefanski.— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 5, 2020
That said, the Browns brought back Kareem Hunt for a reason, and their dynamic offense appears to be in a groove.
I think they keep clicking at home in this spot, while their defense forces Philip Rivers into some of his vintage turnovers en route to a hot 4-1 start.
Minnesota Vikings (+270)
The Vikings are pretty steep underdogs as they head to Seattle to battle the Seahawks in week five. I actually have them beating a 7-point spread as one of the top week five NFL locks, but I think willing bettors can go the extra mile and bet on them to get the win.
Seattle, as good as they are at 3-0, is still a one-man show. They allowed the Miami Dolphins to hang around last week, and the week prior, they barely beat the Cowboys.
Minnesota is tough to peg, but their offense has come to life over the last two games, and in week four, so did their defense.
The Vikings are as talented as anyone. Kirk Cousins can manage games, Dalvin Cook can control them, and the duo of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson can break them wide open.
Minnesota still has its back against the wall at 1-3, but they could be turning the corner. This is a tough spot, but if you like them to beat the spread like I do, going all-in at +270 has to be pretty tempting.
Philadelphia Eagles (+280)
The Eagles worked out swimmingly for us last week, so why not just try them again? More than that, however, Philly really showed their resolve, as going into the Bay Area and taking out the 49ers shouldn’t be seen as a small accomplishment.
Philadelphia still has a lot to prove, but people may not be giving them enough credit. After all, a once stout offensive line had been severely banged up, and Carson Wentz has been forced to play with a seriously depleted supporting cast.
That unit is slowly on the mend, of course, and Philly’s desire to get big wins doesn’t die out come week five.
Doing so on the road against the Steelers won’t be easy, but Pittsburgh is probably due for a letdown after a big upset. The Eagles don’t have to travel very far, either, as they get to stay in Pennsylvania to play this game.
Pittsburgh could also be a tad rusty, as they didn’t play in week four due to a COVID-19 scare. It all adds up to the Eagles once again being a very tempting upset bet in week five.
Last week we got saved by one big hit, and when you’re betting on NFL upsets, sometimes that’s all it takes. Getting that one big upset to deliver can be the whole point of chasing elite betting value, but obviously, the goal is to nail as many as possible.
The three NFL upset picks above give us a good chance in week five, with the Browns feeling like a somewhat safe home dog, and both the Vikings and Eagles offering sweet value as road underdogs.
Whatever you decide to do, hopefully, my week five NFL underdog picks help you in some manner. Good luck, and happy betting!