NFL Upset Picks to Target for Week 2 in the 2021 Season
If you were with me last week, you would know that I was three of four on my NFL upset picks.
Not bad, right?
My only miss was the Cleveland Browns (+215), who had a very close game with the Chiefs and I nearly went perfect. Let’s try to repeat that success this week, and try to be a perfect four for four.
There have been some performances in Week 1 that were underwhelming and overwhelming, as well as some injuries that could play a factor in Week 2 and moving forward.
You will want to factor in everything possible. I did that, and it led me to these NFL underdog picks for week two. See what I have to say, and if you agree, feel free to back these bets wherever you bet on sports online.
Philadelphia Eagles (+155)
I’m rolling with the Eagles again in Week 2.
They were able to steamroll the Falcons to a score of 32-6. Jalen Hurts had a big game on the ground and in the air in Week 1, throwing for 264 and three touchdowns, while adding another 62 yards on the ground.
He hooked up with rookie WR DeVonta Smith for a touchdown, as well as throwing two more to Jaelen Raegor and Dallas Goedert.
Miles Sanders also had a solid game with 74 yards rushing and 39 yards receiving. This Eagles offense looks to be underrated this season, even though the Falcons don’t exactly have a top tier defense.
The 49ers, on the other hand, had a huge lead on the Lions, but almost blew it at the last second.
They were up 31-10 at halftime, before the Lions pulled within one possession and had a chance to tie it late in the game. The final score was 41-33 and was the highest scoring game of the week.
This proves a couple of things, one being the 49ers’ ability to score, and the other being the inability to stop a bad offense. Former defensive coordinator Robert Saleh earned the head coaching job for the Jets, and it looks like the 49ers want him back already.
In this game, I expect the 49ers to try and plug away at the run as they always do, but the Eagles defense should put up a fight.
That will force the 49ers to throw more, with either Jimmy Garropolo or Trey Lance. When you don’t have a surefire quarterback, they probably don’t want to rely on the passing game. That will fall into the Eagles favor in this game and Jalen Hurts can provide enough points to sneak out a win.
The Eagles have to stop the run in order to win, but they have a capable defense to do that.
Dallas Cowboys (+134)
Dallas proved a lot of people wrong in the NFLs season opener game. They took it to the champs and nearly pulled out a victory, before Tom Brady led the offense down the field for a game winning drive and beat the Cowboys 29-31.
Dak Prescott was specifically sensational in that game.
Although it was a loss, the Cowboys proved themselves to be a worthy competitor for this season.
A lot of people thought the Bucs (-450) were going to smoke them out of the water, but the Cowboys almost pulled off a huge upset until the last second field goal by Ryan Succop to give the Bucs a 1-0 record to start the season.
The Cowboys’ stellar receiving core behind Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb led the way for the offense and should do so in Week 2 against the Chargers.
Michael Gallup is banged up and will miss the game, but they should be fine, long-term.
Ezekiel Elliott did not have a great Week 1 on the stat sheet, but that is because of his ability to protect Dak.
There were multiple times where he picked up a blitzing linebacker and saved Dak from a sack, but he should be more involved in the rushing and passing game this time around. This offense can put up big points, but the defense will have to step it up.
The Chargers had a tough matchup themselves in Week 1, going against the Washington Football Team. It was an ugly defensive game, but the Chargers pulled out a victory 20-16.
The key to the Chargers offense is the passing game led by second year quarterback Justin Herbert. This game is going to be all about the offenses, and if the Cowboys are going to win, they are going to have to shut down Keenan Allen and Justin Herbert.
This game could realistically be in the range of 31-27, which would hit the over by three points. This game could be an offensive slugfest and the Cowboys have the firepower to pull off the upset.
Cincinnati Bengals (+128)
Andy Dalton revenge game? Probably not.
Dalton did not have a great showing in Week 1 against the tough Rams defense, with Justin Fields scoring a touchdown in just 7% of snaps compared to Dalton going scoreless in the other 93% of plays.
The Bengals don’t have Aaron Donald or Jalen Ramsey, but they aren’t terrible, either. Dalton hasn’t shown any flashes of greatness in a Bears’ uniform yet and he likely won’t before Justin Fields wins the starting job. I doubt Bears’ head coach Matt Nagy pulls the trigger on it this week.
Another bad aspect of the Bears season opener on Sunday Night Football was the secondary.
They were toasted on multiple plays, including this 56-yard touchdown to Cooper Kupp. The Bengals have a talented receiving core, who could expose the Bears’ secondary if they don’t fix their issues.
The Bengals #5 overall draft pick, WR Ja’Marr Chase caught a deep ball for a touchdown in his big debut, so the Bears need to fix that issue before Chase does it again in Week 2.
After the game, Chase had this to say to his critics.
The Bengals gave Joe Mixon a ton of work (29 carries and 4 touches), so he will probably get a lot of work again against the Bears. The Bears gave up 70 yards on 16 carries (4.37 yards per carry) to Darrell Henderson in Week 1, so they also need to improve there too before Mixon gets hot.
If the Bears were to surprise me and start Justin Fields this week, I would feel a little worse about the Bengals this week, but even if he did start, he could struggle with growing pains and the Bengals can still win.
Miami Dolphins (+135)
Buffalo will find themselves in a hole out of the gate in 2021 if they lose to the Dolphins, which is possible.
The Bills weren’t able to beat the Steelers in Week 1 and the Dolphins have a tough defense like the Steelers. If Josh Allen can’t pick up the pace again, the Dolphins can sneak out a win and be firmly ahead of the Bills in the division race to the records of 2-0 to 0-2.
The Dolphins slugged it out with the Patriots in Week 1, and had a low scoring win (17-16). The Dolphins defense is good enough to hold any offense to a low point total, despite facing rookie Mac Jones in Week 1.
They are also scrappy on the offensive side of the ball. They like to mix it up a lot, which could be hard for a defense to stop throughout the length of the game.
The Bills can totally win this game easily, especially if Josh Allen gets hot. But if the Dolphins strong defense can keep him locked up for the second week in a row, they could pull off the upset.
My Favorite NFL Upset Pick for Week 2
My favorite week two NFL upset pick is the Dallas Cowboys (+134) to beat the Los Angeles Chargers.
The thing that worries me, is the defense for the Cowboys, but their offense is electric and can put up huge points on any given day.
I think Dak is extremely motivated right now since he was out almost all of last year and he is dying to get in the win column. The Cowboys have also had some extra rest since playing on Thursday’s home opener, so that could play a factor as well.
These picks do offer risk, as they are upset picks after all. With that being said, I think these teams have realistic chances to pull off upsets in Week 2 of the NFL season.
For more week two NFL betting insight, check out the posts below.