Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 16 of the 2021 NFL Season

| December 23, 2021 9:57 am PDT

Last week was a tough break for the player prop bets. My first two hit easily, and Aaron Rodgers likely would’ve hit if his game went into overtime. Then, we had that weird Sunday night game where a few big stars left with an injury.

That’s just a reminder that there aren’t any locks. No matter how confident you feel in a bet, anything can happen. Hopefully, our luck turns in Week 16.

Here are my top player prop bets.

Tee Higgins Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

All season, we’ve heard about how great Ja’Marr Chase has performed. While the rookie is on his way to superstar status, you could argue that Tee Higgins is having just as good of a season.

Chase has a big lead in touchdowns, but Higgins is right behind in receptions and targets, despite missing two games. Higgins came back to Earth last week, but he was on an impressive three-week tear.

  • Week 12: 114 yards
  • Week 13: 138 yards
  • Week 14: 114 yards

When in the lineup, Higgins has more targets than Chase. That’s why I trust him over Chase for this prop.

This week, the Cincinnati Bengals will face the Baltimore Ravens. Chase stole the show in their first matchup with 201 yards, but Higgins had a good game with seven receptions for 62 yards. He also saw a season-high 15 targets.

A few weeks ago, Baltimore lost their best corner, Marlon Humphrey, to a season-ending pectoral injury. That leaves them vulnerable on the perimeter.

Despite the injuries, the Ravens always find a way to keep things close. Combine that with a less than 100 percent Joe Mixon, and we’ll likely see the Bengals go pass-heavy.

Aaron Jones Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (EVEN)

The Green Bay Packers backfield has shifted towards a committee throughout the season. Aaron Jones opened the season as the primary back, but AJ Dillon has steadily taken on a bigger role in the offense.

Now this seems like an opportunity to fade Jones, but his low projection gives me confidence in him.

Green Bay’s opponent, the Cleveland Browns, rank top 10 in pass and run defense. However, their run defense hasn’t been as strong lately.

Let’s check out their numbers from their last seven games.

  • 22 carries per game
  • 100 yards per game
  • 4.5 yards per carry

If Dillon wasn’t in the picture, Jones would clear this projection no problem. Even with him in the fold, I like Jones’ chances.

He’ll likely need around 10-14 carries to clear 49.5 yards. That’s a mark he has cleared in four of his last six games.

In my breakdown of the Browns vs. Packers matchup, I mentioned how the Browns defense has been struggling lately. Because of that, I believe the Packers will control this game and cover the spread.

Those factors will contribute to Jones clearing his projection.

Carson Wentz Under 209.5 Passing Yards (-115) 

When I initially saw this projection, I thought it was an obvious opportunity to hit the over. As I looked at the numbers, I realized the under was the right play.

Carson Wentz was almost always over 220 passing yards in the first half of the season. His passing yards have gone downhill following a Week 9 victory over the New York Jets.

  • Week 10: 180
  • Week 11: 106
  • Week 12: 306
  • Week 13: 158
  • Week 15: 57

That one big performance came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Indianapolis Colts played from behind against a team that struggles against the pass. I’m not sure that’ll happen this week.

The Colts will take on the Arizona Cardinals. Last week, the Cardinals had an embarrassing performance, losing 30-12 to the Detroit Lions.

Jared Goff had a strong performance against Arizona, but he only passed for 216 yards. Arizona has held five quarterbacks under 209 yards, including Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson.

Perhaps the most important thing is the Cardinals run defense ranks mid-pack. We should see a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor. It should be another low-volume passing day for the Colts.

Stefon Diggs Under 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

It seems like Stefon Diggs has had a down season, but I feel like that’s because of his high expectations. He ranks just outside the top 10 in receptions and yards.

The biggest difference between last season and this season is his big games. Last season, he had seven games over 100 yards. This season, he only has two.

Diggs doesn’t need 100 yards to clear this projection, but his matchup makes it tough to clear 70.5.

The Buffalo Bills will face the New England Patriots for the second time in four weeks. Let’s check out Diggs’ numbers from their first matchup.

  • 4 receptions
  • 7 targets
  • 51 yards

New England has the third-best passing defense. A big reason for that is J.C. Jackson.

Jackson has been one of the best corners in the league. He typically shadows the opposing teams’ number one option, including Diggs in Week 13.

The Patriots are notorious for taking away the opposing teams’ number one option. It’ll be even more challenging for Diggs with Cole Beasley out with COVID. There’s also a chance Emmanuel Sanders misses his second straight game.

That Patriots defense is tough to pass on. I think we’ll see the same this week.

My Top NFL Player Prop Bet for Week 16

  • Jerry Jeudy Under 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Jerry Jeudy’s season has been a disappointment. He missed time with an ankle injury and hasn’t found the end zone.

Jeudy is coming off a zero-catch game against the Denver Broncos. This week, Jeudy will face a Las Vegas Raiders team that is one of the best against opposing wide receivers. He’ll likely see a lot of standout rookie Nate Hobbs.

Check out some more NFL picks with the articles below.

Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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