Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 12 of the 2021 NFL Season

By Nick Sterling in NFL
| November 25, 2021 9:54 am PST

I’m not sure I want to look back at Week 11 because it was a struggle. We were on a bit of a hot streak, so I guess it was only a matter of time before we had a bad week.

Week 12 is here and I feel pretty confident about bouncing back. Let’s see my top player prop bets for the week.

Tom Brady Over 315.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Tom Brady continues to play at an MVP level. He leads the league with 29 passing touchdowns and ranks second with 3,177 passing yards.

We’ve yet to see anything that indicates the 44-year-old is slowing down.

Brady has been airing it out all season. He has four games with over 370 passing yards, including two over 410. His only “down games” come in blowouts where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers don’t need to pass.

I don’t think we’ll see something like that this week because the Buccaneers go on the road to play the Indianapolis Colts. The early betting lines only have the Buccaneers as (-2.5) point favorites.

The sportsbooks are expecting a close game, which bodes well for Brady’s passing yards. Only twice this season has Tampa Bay been favored by less than five points.

Check out Brady’s passing yards in each game.

  • Week 3: 432
  • Week 8: 375

Both of those came in road losses.

This game has the highest point total of the week at 53. If you put Brady in a shootout, he’ll put up a lot of passing yards. That’s probably why multiple Buccaneers players are in our optimal DFS lineup.

Do yourself a favor and bet the over.

Najee Harris Under 71.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Over the last four or five weeks, Najee Harris has been one of the top running backs. From weeks five to 10, he cleared 80 rushing yards four times.

Even with the success, I’m fading Harris for Week 12.

Last week, Harris went up against the worst run defense and only managed 39 rushing yards. It’s a combination of the Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line struggling and them falling behind in games.

This week, Harris will face the Cincinnati Bengals for the second time this season. Harris had 102 receiving yards against them in Week 3, but check out his rushing stats.

  • 14 carries
  • 40 yards
  • 2.9 yards per carry

If you take out a 20-yard run from that game, his average comes down to 1.5.

Cincinnati’s run defense has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per game this season. Nick Chubb had his way with them in Week 9 but for the most part, they’ve shut down the opposing teams’ run game.

The Bengals passing defense is also among the worst in the league. It probably makes sense for the Steelers to employ a pass-heavy approach.

For fantasy football players, maybe Harris will give you points through the air.

Kirk Cousins Over 270.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Can someone tell me why Kirk Cousins takes so much criticism? The Minnesota Vikings quarterback is having a great season with 2,775 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and two interceptions.

Because of him, Minnesota is in playoff contention. I have them as a wild card team in my NFL playoff prediction.

This week, it’ll be a tough matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.

Their passing defense has played at a high level all season. Jared Goff is the only quarterback to clear 265 yards against them, and most of those came in garbage time.

Over the last two weeks, Cousins has faced the Los Angeles Chargers (fifth-best passing defense) and the Green Bay Packers (seventh-best passing defense).

Check out his passing yards in each game.

  • Week 10 (Chargers): 294
  • Week 11: (Packers): 341

He led the Vikings to victory in both games and threw five touchdowns.

Right now, Cousins is playing at such a high level that I don’t think anyone can slow him down. His favorite target, Justin Jefferson, has 312 receiving yards in the last two games.

I expect another big day from both players, with Cousins clearing 270.5 passing yards.

Tyler Higbee Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Despite playing for one of the best passing offenses in the league, Tyler Higbee hasn’t made a big impact this season.

Higbee hasn’t had over 55 receiving yards since Week 1 and has just three touchdowns this season.

Perhaps there was some hope he would take on a bigger role when Robert Woods tore his ACL. However, the Los Angeles Rams brought in Odell Beckham Jr. and he should see a bigger role in Week 12.

Basically, you’re swapping out Woods for Beckham. Therefore, Higbee will likely have the same role.

When looking at this prop bet, Higbee has cleared 39.5 receiving yards four times. In two of those games, his longest reception came over 25 yards. That’s the key to holding him under his projection.

This week, Higbee and the Rams will face the Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay has had trouble against tight ends this season, but it’s against players you would expect.

  • T.J. Hockenson: 66 yards
  • George Kittle: 92 yards
  • Travis Kelce: 68 yards

For the most part, those players are number one options. Higbee is likely the third or fourth option in his offense.

I don’t think he hits 39.5 receiving yards.

My Top NFL Player Prop Bet for Week 12

  • Zach Pascal Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Zach Pascal cleared 35 receiving yards in six of his first nine games. In three of those games, his longest reception was over 30 yards.

Over the last two weeks, Pascal has two receptions and nine yards on three targets. Right now, he doesn’t have much of a role in the Indianapolis Colts offense.

Sometimes, it’s nice to switch things up and check out some game picks. Here are some of our favorites.

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