Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 11 of the 2021 NFL Season
Week 10 was one of those weeks where things didn’t go our way. The NFL continues to be unpredictable, so a lot of player prop bets have unforeseen outcomes.
In Week 11, I’m looking for a bounce-back week. With all the upsets, betting on player prop bets seems more predictable than picking the spread and/or moneyline.
Here are my top player prop bets for the week.
Justin Fields Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Two weeks ago, we finally saw a glimpse of Justin Fields’ potential. He passed for a career-high 291 yards and nearly led the Chicago Bears to a comeback victory.
Following a bye week, Fields and the Bears will host the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens seem like one of the top teams in the AFC, but they’re coming off a disappointing loss to the Miami Dolphins.
Now the Ravens have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game this season. On the other side, their pass defense has allowed the most yards per game. Combine that with the early betting lines having the Ravens as (-6.0) point favorites and you should have a pass-heavy approach.
In terms of rushing yards, I believe that’s in Fields’ favor. In his first two starts, Fields didn’t attempt over 20 passes or rush for over 10 yards.
Check out his averages in his last four starts.
- 28.8 passing attempts
- 57.3 rushing yards
As the passing attempts go up, so do the rushing yards. The biggest reason for that is a lot of his yards come from scrambles.
The Ravens cover zero blitzes should lead to multiple scrambles.
Tyreek Hill Under 86.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
By now, it’s widely known teams have adjusted their defense against the Kansas City defense. They are playing two deep safeties to limit the deep ball.
While that has hurt the whole offense, it affects Tyreek Hill the most. Check out his receiving yards in his last four games.
- Week 7: 49
- Week 8: 94
- Week 9: 37
- Week 10: 83
In Week 8, it took 12 receptions on 18 targets to hit that mark. That was also a rare down game for Travis Kelce (three receptions).
Last week was also the first time since Week 4 Hill had a reception over 20 yards.
The matchup with the Dallas Cowboys isn’t very imposing, but I imagine they continue the trend of two deep safeties. Hill will have his opportunities, but they’ll likely only go for 10-15 yards.
He’ll likely see a lot of Trevon Diggs in coverage.
Unless Hill has another Week 7 like workload, I don’t see him clearing 86.5 receiving yards.
Jalen Hurts Over 203.5 Passing Yards (-115)
This one might surprise some people but bear with me.
The Philadelphia Eagles have employed a run-heavy approach over the last three weeks. In that time, Jalen Hurts is averaging 18 passing attempts and 147.7 passing yards.
When I look at things this week, I don’t believe that approach will work. Why? Because of the Eagles matchup with the New Orleans Saints.
Do you remember when no one could run on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Well, the new vaunted run defense is the Saints. Check out their numbers over the last four weeks.
- 96 carries
- 261 yards
- 2.7 yards per carry
On the other side, their pass defense has struggled lately. Tom Brady and Matt Ryan passed for over 340 yards on them. Ryan Tannehill didn’t have the best day, but he had 213 yards last week.
I understand the Eagles want to run the ball, and I’m sure they’ll at least try to in the beginning. I don’t think it’ll take long for them to realize that won’t work.
Truthfully, I think they should come into this game with a pass-first approach.
It would be the second time since Week 4 Hurts cleared the 200-yard mark.
Derek Carr Over 285.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Despite losing Henry Ruggs, the Las Vegas Raiders passing game hasn’t taken a big hit. Derek Carr has had a big season and ranks second with 314.0 passing yards per game.
Last week, he failed to hit 290 yards for the first time since Week 5. I like his chances to bounce back against the Cincinnati Bengals.
This season, the Bengals have held four quarterbacks under 220 yards. That seems encouraging until you realize who those quarterbacks are.
- Justin Fields/Andy Dalton
- Trevor Lawrence
- Jared Goff
- Baker Mayfield
None of those players are averaging over 235 passing yards.
Just about every other quarterback the Bengals have played has had success against them. In their defense, they’ve played against Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, and Lamar Jackson.
But what is their excuse for Ben Roethlisberger and Mike White? It was a season-high for both players, and a career-high for White.
I don’t think we’ll all of a sudden see the Bengals find a way to slow down one of the top quarterbacks.
Look out for another big week from Carr and the Raiders passing offense.
My Top NFL Player Prop Bet for Week 11
- Laviska Shenault Jr. Under 34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
When D.J. Chark fractured his ankle in Week 4, the expectation was Laviska Shenault Jr. would receive the vacated targets. Instead, we’ve seen Jamal Agnew and Dan Arnold step into that role.
Since the Jacksonville Jaguars Week 7 bye, Shenault has 52 receiving yards in three games. I have a hard time believing he’ll get it going against a San Francisco 49ers team that just shut down the Los Angeles Rams passing offense.
I know game picks have been tricky lately but if you’re up for the task, check out our top selections for Week 11.