Best NFL Player Prop Bets for the Divisional Round 2022

| January 20, 2022 8:15 am PDT

My player prop bets from wild card weekend yielded a 2-3 result. My three misses lost due in part to game script. Sometimes, you have to account for that.

We’re down to eight playoff teams as they contend for a spot in the Conference Championship. My player props will feature some of the best players in the game. Let’s see who I’m targeting for the divisional round.

Joe Mixon Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 

Joe Mixon has quietly put together the best season of his career. Mixon was third in the league with 292 carries and 1,205 yards. His 13 rushing touchdowns were fourth.

Towards the end of the regular season and into the playoffs, we’ve seen the Cincinnati Bengals lean on Joe Burrow and their passing game.

Including last week’s playoff win, Mixon has cleared 59.5 rushing yards once in his last six games. His struggles have been a combination of lack of opportunities and efficiency.

In eight of his first 11 games, Mixon averaged over 4.0 yards per carry. He hasn’t cleared that mark in his last six games. Now, Mixon will face a Tennessee Titans defense that is stout against the run.

Tennessee’s defense fell 0.2 yards short of leading the league in rushing yards. They let a running back rush for more than 59.5 yards, only four times this season. Jonathan Taylor did it twice, with Chase Edmonds and James Robinson also accomplishing that feat. Those all came in the first eight weeks of the season.

The Titans’ pass defense has allowed the eighth-most yards. In my Bengals vs. Titans game pick, I mentioned that I expect a pass-heavy approach from the Bengals.

Van Jefferson Longest Reception Over 18.5 Yards (-115)

Van Jefferson has taken on a bigger role in his second season with the Los Angeles Rams. He became the Rams’ primary deep threat when they released DeSean Jackson and lost Robert Woods.

Jefferson excelled in his role, accumulating 50 receptions, 802 yards, and six touchdowns. His 16.0 yards per catch ranked sixth.

The Rams will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the divisional round. Los Angeles had their way in a 34-24 victory over Tampa Bay in Week 3. A big reason for their win was the deep ball. Check out every player who had a longest reception over 18.5 yards.

  • DeSean Jackson: 75
  • Cooper Kupp: 22
  • Van Jefferson: 21
  • Robert Woods: 20

Overall, Jefferson has cleared this mark 12 times this season. He hit that mark in every game from Week 7 to Week 14.

Los Angeles should employ a pass-heavy approach this weekend. Tampa Bay has one of the best run defenses in football, with their pass defense ranking mid-pack. The Rams had success on the ground last week, but we’re probably looking at a big passing day.

Jefferson should get loose for at least one big play.

Davante Adams Over 90.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 

I’m not a big fan of taking the over on players with a big projection, but I’m willing to make an exception for Davante Adams. It’s no coincidence that Aaron Rodgers’ late MVP surge coincided with a big end to the season for Adams.

Adams only cleared 90.5 yards three times in his first nine games. He hit that mark in five of his last seven games. We could honestly say five of his last six games, considering that includes the Week 18 game he only played 32 percent of snaps.

The Green Bay Packers have a tough matchup with the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers’ pass defense allowed the sixth-fewest yards. That might give people some pause, but Adams has excelled against them in his career.

Check out his receiving yards in five games against the 49ers.

  • 10/15/18 – 132
  • 11/24/19 – 43
  • 1/19/20 – 138
  • 11/5/20 – 173
  • 9/26/21 – 132

San Francisco got the best of him in their regular-season matchup in 2019, but Adams has burned them every other time. They might have a good pass defense, but their secondary has holes.

Adams is one of the best receivers in the game. I think we’ll see a big performance on Saturday night.

Gabriel Davis Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+300)

I wanted to include one value bet, and the best way to do that is via touchdown scorer. Gabriel Davis became a significant factor in the Buffalo Bills offense at the end of the season.

From Week 1 to Week 13, Davis never played more than 52 percent of snaps. Check out his snap percentage from the Bills’ final four regular-season games.

  • @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 83 percent
  • Carolina Panthers: 90 percent
  • Atlanta Falcons: 87 percent
  • New York Jets: 91 percent

Going back to Week 13, Davis had four touchdowns in his final five regular-season games. He extended that run with a touchdown in the Bills wild card victory over the New England Patriots. Can he keep up his success against the Kansas City Chiefs?

He only had one reception for 16 yards in the Bills Week 5 victory over the Chiefs, but he played a season-low 25 percent of snaps. Buffalo’s passing offense was eating all night, with Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox combining for three touchdowns. Davis has emerged alongside Knox as a top red zone option.

I think this gives you great value. A high-volume passing attack should do wonders for Davis’ touchdown chances.

My Top NFL Player Prop for the Divisional Round

  • Tyreek Hill Under 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Taking the under on Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards has become one of my favorite bets. Hill has fallen victim to teams playing with two deep safeties. Hill hasn’t cleared this mark in four straight games. Going against the Buffalo Bills, Hill has cleared this mark once in four games.

The divisional round has many great games on tap. We have game picks, DFS lineups, parlays, and more on our NFL picks page. Make sure you check them out today.

Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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