Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Chiefs vs. Chargers – Week 15 (2021)
Week 15 kicks off with a marquee matchup between a pair of AFC West teams. The Kansas City Chiefs will head out west to take on the Los Angeles Chargers.
Kansas City is on a six-game win streak and looks like one of the best teams in football. Los Angeles defeated the Chiefs in Week 3 and can take the division lead with a victory on Thursday night.
Here are a few player prop bets I’m checking out for Thursday night.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Last week, the Kansas City Chiefs had their way with the Las Vegas Raiders. They dominated both sides of the ball, holding a 35-3 lead at halftime. Theoretically, that would benefit Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the second half.
Kansas City had such a big lead that they opted to go with third-string running back Derrick Gore. Because of that, Edwards-Helaire failed to clear 50 rushing yards for the first time since returning from IR.
I don’t think he’ll have that issue this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers have struggled to contain the run game all season. That was prevalent in their Week 3 matchup with the Chiefs.
- 17 carries
- 100 rushing yards
- 5.9 yards per carry
I know that was a while ago, but their run defense is still one of the worst in the league. Only twice this season have they held opposing running backs under 90 rushing yards.
Kansas City should lean on him throughout the game. He should clear 50.5 rushing yards, with his eyes on another 100-yard game.
Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (-130)
Travis Kelce is going through a bit of a slump. In each of his last two games, he has three receptions for 27 yards. He is on pace to have his lowest yards per game since 2015.
But this prop bet is about his receptions.
The Los Angeles Chargers have one of the best passing defenses in the league, but that doesn’t apply to tight ends. In Week 3, Kelce had one of his best games of the season.
- 7 receptions
- 11 targets
- 104 yards
Los Angeles plays with two deep safeties to slow down players like Tyreek Hill. That leaves them susceptible in the run game and the short routes.
Kelce operates in the middle of the field, so you’ll likely see Patrick Mahomes look his way early and often.
The early betting lines have the Chiefs as (-3.5) point favorites. It’ll likely be a close battle, with Mahomes leaning on his playmakers.
I like Kelce’s chances to have a bounce-back performance.
Keenan Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150)
The Los Angeles Chargers don’t have many prop bets because of injuries and COVID. Touchdown scorer is our only option, and Keenan Allen is my top choice.
Truthfully, we don’t know if Allen will suit up for Thursday night’s matchup. He missed last week with COVID and remains on the reserve/COVID list. However, head coach Brandon Stanley expects Allen to return this week.
Last week, they didn’t need Allen to beat the New York Giants. I can’t say the same for this week.
Since the Chargers bye week, Allen has been extremely productive. Check out his numbers in six games.
- 47 receptions
- 66 targets
- 510 yards
- 3 touchdowns
He doesn’t have as many touchdowns as you’d like, but his receptions and targets give me a lot of confidence in him.
Kansas City has been firing on all cylinders lately. The Chargers will either play from behind or hang with the Chiefs. Either way, their passing attack should be in full force.
I’m looking for Allen to pick up his fifth touchdown of the season. Justin Herbert should look at him a lot in his first game off the reserve/COVID list.
Patrick Mahomes Under 26.5 Completions (-130)
I don’t typically look at completion and attempt prop bets, but there aren’t many options this week. I didn’t like the passing attempts, so completions it is.
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs aren’t the type of offense that takes their foot off the pedal. Well, that used to be true.
Mahomes has only cleared 26.5 completions in two of his last seven games. Surprisingly, one of those came in a 41-14 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders.
Since a blowout loss against the Tennessee Titans, the Chiefs defense has been one of the best in the league. Check out their points allowed in their six-game win streak.
- Week 8: 17
- Week 9: 7
- Week 10: 14
- Week 11: 9
- Week 13: 9
- Week 14: 9
Those weren’t easy matchups. They beat the Raiders twice, Dallas Cowboys, and Green Bay Packers (Without Aaron Rodgers).
Kansas City is facing a Chargers team that is much better against the pass. It’ll be tough to slow down the Chargers offense, but if they can, Mahomes might not need to do a lot.
I don’t think we’ll see him clear 26.5 completions.
My Top Chiefs vs. Chargers Player Prop for Week 15
- Tyreek Hill Under 81.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
We’ve been building up to this point.
The Los Angeles Chargers have a strong pass defense that wants to limit the big play. Hill had 56 yards in Week 3, and has only cleared 81.5 yards twice in his last nine games. I’m all on the under this week.
These are my top player prop bets for the matchup. If you’d like a more in-depth breakdown, make sure you check out Anthony Haage’s game pick.