Player Prop Bets for Browns vs. Chiefs – NFL Divisional Round, January 17, 2021

| January 14, 2021 8:14 am PDT

The game in the 2021 NFL Divisional Round with the largest point spread may honestly end up being the most compelling.

On one side are the 14-2 Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is a yearly MVP candidate, this team is beyond stacked, and they’re looking to defend their Super Bowl title of a year ago.

Kansas City is well-rested thanks to a bye, and they welcome a seemingly inferior Browns team to town.

On the other side are those fiery Browns, who stomped all over the Steelers last week and just might have the pillars of a title contender. 

Cleveland might need to play borderline perfect football for even a chance of staging the upset, but after what was seen in the Wild Card round, can bettors really write them off?

You don’t need to pick a side to profit from this game, luckily. If you do, just check out this Browns vs. Chiefs Divisional Round betting preview. For another way to cash in, read on for my favorite Browns vs. Chiefs player props.

Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115)

The Chiefs are well-rested, at home, and have a pretty good matchup in front of them. Cleveland’s defensive weakness has long been their secondary, and Ben Roethlisberger exploited that with 500+ yards and four touchdowns last week.

I tend to think Patrick Mahomes can do something similar.

Mahomes put up 38 passing scores across just 15 games during the regular season and fired in at least three touchdowns six different times. He threw multiple scores 13 times.

The matchup and Mahomes’ production tell us that he will at least be in a position to convert this bet for you. All things considered, it feels like a strong bet at a nice -115 price.

Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125)

If Mahomes gets it going in this one, I’m guessing it will eventually force Baker Mayfield to take it to the air, too. Mayfield did that last week even with a lead, as he hung three touchdowns on Pittsburgh.

Cleveland prefers to run the ball, and that is admittedly where this matchup demands they go. That said, this game has a huge total (57.5 at BetOnline), and Mayfield can be very effective working off of the run as the game matures.

Unlike the Mahomes prop, you don’t need three scores from Mayfield; you just need two. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns 10 times now this year, and he’ll likely be needed in a high-scoring affair.

Patrick Mahomes Over 320.5 Passing Yards (-112)

It’s a Chiefs game, so if you’re eager to place bets, you should have an interest in multiple wagers dealing with the star of the show.

That’s none other than Mahomes, who threw for over 4,700 yards across 15 games and averaged 316 yards per contest.

This prop puts him slightly ahead of his average, which is something he accomplished seven different times during the regular season.

With the matchup looking the best through the air for KC and the game total being so gaudy, I like the Over here.

Nick Chubb Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

This game should feature quite a bit of scoring, but the bread and butter for the Browns remains their rushing attack.

It also happens to be Kansas City’s main weakness on defense.

Cleveland is going to have more success in this matchup than people think, and Chubb is a huge reason why. He’s quietly topped 100+ rushing yards six times this year, and he’s cleared this 78.5 yardage total eight times.

Last week he came close to a ninth (76) and probably should have got there. He does have to share the workload with Kareem Hunt, but Chubb is what makes this offense go. 

I find it hard to believe he doesn’t have a good amount of success against a Chiefs run defense that gave up the 10th most rushing yards to running backs in 2020.

Tyreek Hill Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

If Mahomes is going to top 320+ passing yards like I think he will, it’s pretty likely some of his receivers benefit from the big day.

The main guy to look to for the yardage is Hill, who can cover this total in his sleep. Hill can turn broken plays into majestic ones, and he’s topped this 76.5 yardage total eight times this season.

Let’s just say the Browns won’t want to lose track of him.

Hill isn’t always totally necessary to KC’s dominance on offense, but I think he’ll be needed in this spot. Cleveland stops the run pretty well, but they really don’t have anyone that can consistently keep tabs on someone like Hill.

This yardage prop honestly feels low when you consider how much the Chiefs throw the ball and how explosive Hill can be.

Kareem Hunt to Score a Touchdown (+170)

Revenge game! I wasn’t lying when I said that the Browns lean on Nick Chubb a lot, but they also just run the ball a ton in general.

Hunt is a big part of that, and there’s no doubt he’ll be featured against the team that drafted him. There’s some bad blood here between Hunt and the Chiefs, too, as they released him following an off-field incident.

Do you think he forgot? I sure don’t. 

I mean, he literally made it known that it is.

Hunt has already been busy proving his worth in the 2021 NFL playoffs, as he punched in two scores against the Steelers last week. He’s also been regularly used in the red-zone by Cleveland, which is evident by his 13 total scores on the year.

The Browns need Hunt to play well in order to win this game, and it’d only be fitting for him to step up with a big score or two against his former squad. Oh, and just look at that welcoming +170 price tag.

Travis Kelce to Score a Touchdown (-155)

Lastly, I can’t wrap up a post dealing with Browns vs. Chiefs player props without singling out Kelce and his tendency to score touchdowns.

Kelce is the main guy Patrick Mahomes looks to near the end-zone (11 touchdowns), and he simply gets the ball thrown his way a ton in general (105 catches).

Cleveland’s pass defense is the obvious weakness in this matchup, and the Browns also have had issues stopping opposing tight ends. On the year, the Browns have allowed the 5th most catches, the 8th most yards, and the 4th most touchdowns to the position.

I’m not sure anyone should feel great about Cleveland keeping Kelce out of the end-zone this week.


I’ve handed out 2021 NFL Divisional Round player props for every game now, and this one has by far the most interesting wagers.

That’s seven Browns vs. Chiefs player props to get the ball rolling, and I like them all. In fact, there are probably even more that are worth targeting at your favorite pro football sportsbooks.

The seven listed above are simply my favorites. Pick them out and bet as you wish, but I think each one has a good shot at paying off.

Beyond that, this is a really interesting game, and both sides will give it their all as they fight for the right to advance to the AFC Championship game.

If you want to dabble in more NFL player props for the Divisional Round, check out my links below.

Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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