Player Prop Bets for Bills vs. Chiefs – NFL Championship Round, January 24, 2021

| January 20, 2021 1:46 pm PDT

The 2021 NFL Conference Championship Round is here this weekend, and with it comes numerous ways to make money betting on the NFL.

One way is to bet on NFL player props, and with so many star players taking the field, there are a lot of ways to attack these games.

I’ve already broken down my favorite Buccaneers vs. Packers player prop bets, and now it’s time to turn my sights to the AFC title game.

The elephant in the room is that Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes isn’t officially active for this game just yet, so I’ll avoid dealing with props concerning him.

I’m sure there will be fun Patrick Mahomes wagers to target when the time comes, but this breakdown of Bills vs. Chiefs player props should showcase the other bets worth attacking.

With that, let’s dive into my favorite NFL player prop bets for this contest.

Josh Allen to Score a Touchdown (+135)

I want to target Patrick Mahomes props like everyone else, but it’s tough to know if he’s even playing yet.

Josh Allen is a full go for sure, though, and he has the Bills in a position to make their first Super Bowl since 1993.

Buffalo has already enjoyed a successful season just by getting here, but Josh Allen and co. aren’t done just yet.

Most of their success stems from Allen’s big arm and propensity to deliver chunk plays down the field, but it’s also due to his dynamic ability as a runner.

Defenses constantly need to account for Allen all over the field, and once the Bills get in the red-zone, it’s impossible to know how he’ll burn you.

What bettors should know, however, is Allen has scored with his legs 25 times in his career and eight times this season. Considering KC has allowed seven rushing touchdowns this year, he’s a very real threat to do so again this week.

Travis Kelce to Score a Touchdown (-115)

An even better bet is assuming Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce will find the end-zone. Kelce has been a touchdown machine this year, as he’s hauled in 12 scores (including playoffs), with at least one coming in 11 different games.

He had one game where he scored twice. I’ll give you one guess who it was against.

Yeah, that’s right, the Bills.

Buffalo actually has a strong pass defense, but they didn’t fare well against tight ends during the regular season. On the year, Buffalo allowed the second-most receptions to tight ends, the second-most receiving yards, and eight scores.

With much of their focus spent on containing the explosive Tyreek Hill, it is understandable that the Bills might lose track of Kelce.

Devin Singletary Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Kansas City’s defense is a little better than anyone ever cares to admit, but like Buffalo, they do have a clear weakness.

It’s on the ground, where the Chiefs gave up over 1,600 rushing yards to running backs.

Just look at what Football Outsiders had to say about their run defense before facing Cleveland.

Buffalo doesn’t run the ball that much, but with the Super Bowl within reach, they may opt to balance things out a bit. If not to exploit Kansas City’s main defensive weakness, perhaps at least to throw them off a bit.

Whatever the case, the matchup is there to attack. Singletary is a shifty, explosive runner, too, so topping 40 yards (if the touches are there) isn’t a tall order.

Singletary topped this mark seven times this year. If he can get the totes, he could easily hit the Over.

Stefon Diggs Over 7.5 Receptions (+108)

One more bet that stands out is this prop asking how many catches Stefon Diggs will have.

Diggs is a heavily targeted receiver that is crucial to Buffalo’s success, so my first reaction is the Over, and there’s little hesitance there.

It’s not a small total, but he’s cleared eight catches nine times this season – including last week.

He has another difficult matchup in front of him, but I feel better targeting his reception total than betting on his yardage. Whether based on his role or just necessity, I think he can get there.


There is a lot of value to be had in NFL player props this week. That’s a tad shocking, given the small slate and everything that is at stake.

Regardless, you can make money betting on NFL player props, and these Bills vs. Chiefs props tend to stand out.

I’d certainly refrain from betting heavily on anything dealing with Patrick Mahomes, while I’m not as excited to bet on Tyreek Hill’s production at the moment, either.

The other props above look like good options. I’d still shop around for the best odds at the top NFL betting sites, but the props themselves (and my picks) should be of assistance.

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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