The Best NFL Against the Spread Picks in Week 5
My favorite time to attack NFL lines is early in the week. By the time Sunday morning arrives, the markets have had time to adjust, and the lines are generally more efficient.
Getting bets in early means having a chance to beat the closing lines – that’s really the name of the game when you’re making NFL picks against the spread.
Studying the week 5 slate (specifically the 14 matchups taking place on Sunday), four games have caught my attention.
These are my top NFL picks ATS in week 5.
Raiders (-5.5) vs. Bears -110
This game opened at Raiders -7, so right away, you know there’s some built-in value. I’m not overreacting to Vegas’ loss on MNF; the Chargers are a really talented bunch led by one of the top-tier QBs in football. Likewise, I’m not ready to extoll Justin Fields and Bears just because they beat an abysmal Lions squad at home.
Not only are the Bears averaging a measly 10 points per game as a visitor, now they’re going to battle without their top offensive performer. David Montgomery is out for at least the next month as he recovers from a sprained knee.
The Raiders scored over 30 in each of their two contests held at Allegiant Stadium; I just don’t see any way the Bears can keep pace in this spot.
Chargers (-1) vs. Browns -115
After validating a road win at Kansas City by beating an undefeated Raiders squad, the cat’s out of the bag in LA. The Chargers are a really good team with genuine Super Bowl aspirations.
The Browns also have thoughts of playing in SoFi Stadium in February, but they’ve got a long way to go on the offensive side of the ball if their dream’s going to turn into a reality. In the interim (with Jarvis Landry on the sidelines), Cleveland’s passing game is among the weakest in the league.
Kevin Stefanski would love to hang his hat on his run game, but his offensive line is banged up, and the Chargers front seven will be locked in.
In the event this game goes down to the wire, and it comes down to quarterback play, Brandon Staley and his group hold a massive edge.
Baker’s still trying to figure this out and get the ball out on time; Justin Herbert’s name is getting thrown around in the same breath as Patrick Mahomes and Dan Marino.
Confirmed: Justin Herbert is good at football ? pic.twitter.com/WlJaOqHiI4— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 5, 2021
Buccaneers (-10) vs. Dolphins -110
After laying an egg at home against the winless Colts, the Dolphins face a brutal test Sunday in Tampa Bay. Coming off a 10-point loss in Los Angeles, the Buccaneers played soppily on Sunday Night Football, just barely getting by the Patriots. My gut tells me Tom Brady and his men lock in for this matchup and bludgeon Miami in week 5.
Unfortunately for fans in South Beach, issues with their protection scheme are just the beginning of their problems. Miami was supposed to boast a reliable D, so far, they’re ranked 24th in yards allowed, and 25th in points surrendered. As far as their ability to get after Tom Brady, I don’t like their chances.
Only the Jaguars, Giants, and Saints have amassed fewer sacks on defense. Not to mention, the Bucs o-line does a tremendous job protecting their most valuable asset.
Most pass-blocking snaps without allowing a sack this season | among tackles:— PFF (@PFF) October 5, 2021
?☠️ Tristan Wirfs – 195
☠️ Kolton Miller – 185
⚡️ Rashawn Slater – 176 pic.twitter.com/LLxoyoFdtU
All things considered, this is just a bad matchup for Miami. Hence, the Bucs are one of the best NFL week 5 picks ATS.
My Top NFL ATS Pick for Week 5
Bengals (+3.5) vs. Packers-120
Of all my Week 5 NFL picks against the spread, grabbing the Bengals at home with the points is my favorite bet on the board. Frankly, one of my NFL predictions in week 5 is that Cincy wins this game outright.
Having said that, the goal here is to deliver my best ATS picks. That means latching onto the Bengals +3.5, quick, before all of the NFL sportsbooks online move this line to +3.
Sure, Aaron Rodgers has rallied his troops, and the Packers are back on track, but let’s not discount who’s under center for the team playing at home.
Joe Burrow weeks 1-2:— Cris Collinsworth (@CollinsworthPFF) October 1, 2021
69.9 PFF grade (21st)
Joe Burrow weeks 3-4:
91.9 PFF grade (1st)
This Joey B makes the Bengals a playoff team
Burrow is playing fantastic football and is limiting his mistakes. Tee Higgins is all but certain to rejoin the lineup, as are key defenders Jessie Bates and Chidobe Awuzie (all three missed week 4).
Throw in the fact that Cincinnati’s at home and on extra rest. I like the Bengals to cover the spread.