Newcastle United vs. Arsenal – English Premier League, May 2, 2021

Arsenal’s late penalty on Thursday has given the Gunners some hope in its Europa League semifinal tie against Villarreal – and that is crucial given that it now looks like the club will not be able to finish in the top seven.

If anything, Newcastle is the form team of the two and has done enough in the last few months to almost secure its Premier League status.

I think league positions have influenced BetOnline in the pricing of this one. But they don’t consider the recent form of these two clubs or the troubles that Arsenal sometimes has on the road.

I think the draw bet, or even the home win, looks more promising here.

Rewind a few months, and it was looking very bleak for Newcastle. There were injuries to many key players, and those that were available were second best to nearly every team they faced. But now there has been just one defeat in the last eight Premier League games, and the Magpies are nine points above the drop zone with just five games to play.

Steve Bruce has been fortunate that the likes of Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin have been able to return.

Bruce’s tactics haven’t always been that clear, but it does look as though he has steered the club to safety now.

Arsenal will be wary of a Newcastle team that has refused to take it easy in the last few weeks. That kind of opponent is probably the last Mikel Arteta would want to face after a Europa League semifinal first leg just days earlier. Thanks to the close result against Villarreal, he will now have to plan for this game with the second leg firmly in mind.

Thankfully there are no new injury worries, although Alexandre Lacazette may miss out. Kieran Tierney could even return at the back – but it is more likely that he will be rested in case he is available for next Thursday’s European game. That is the all-important fixture now, and it could have a big effect on how Arsenal shapes up for this game on Sunday.

The more I think about this game, the more I think that Newcastle will end up with all three points. Arsenal can be temperamental at the best of times and will surely have half a mind on Villarreal. That could allow Saint-Maximin and Almiron to exploit tired legs and attack the Gunners defense at will.

It could be another good day for Steve Bruce on Sunday.