New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Betting Preview – NFL, Week 17, 2020

By Dean McHugh in NFL
| December 30, 2020 8:53 am PDT

Up until two weeks ago, the Jets were winless this season, and it was hard to see where a win was going to come from. But fast forward two weeks, they are now looking to post their third win in a row.

With the Patriots season over, it seems like the team have given up and are on holiday already as they have lost their last three in a row showing little signs of a resurgence.

One thing they will want to maintain, however, is their dominance over the Jets, and a win here would make it ten wins in a row against New York. They have also won the last nine in a row at Gillette Stadium, so there is that record to uphold also.

Jets vs. Patriots Odds

Jets (+3.5) -110
Patriots (-3.5) -110
Jets To Win +155
Patriots To Win -175
Over 43 Points -110
Under 43 Points -110

Up until a couple of weeks ago, you could have put a one in front of the Jets handicap lead here, but their last couple of games have got the bookmakers thinking. One thing that is clear is that they expect a low-scoring game, which you could question as both teams have no pressure on them, so they should be able to play free flowing football.

Jets Form

The Jets looked dead and buried and seemed destined to go the season winless, especially looking at their last three fixtures. However, a defensive resurgence has seen them pick up back to back wins and give them some real hope heading into next season.

Many assumed their win against the Rams was just an off day for LA as the Jets almost threw away a 13 point lead going into the last quarter of the game. But they backed that win up with a marvelous win against the Browns last time out, where they controlled the game from start to finish.

Apart from their win in LA last time out, they have been appalling on the road this season, only losing by less than a touchdown once from their six defeats.

However, against the spread, they have done well in recent weeks, winning five of their seven most recent games. But on the road, this drops dramatically as expected, only winning two of seven. They haven’t done well against New England either, only winning two of the last six games.

Their defensive resurgence has seen a reduced number of points scored in recent weeks as four of the last five games has seen under the betting total scored. Although they have been poor on the road, this trend has continued with five of the last six going under also. However, this is probably down to the fact that the Jets have posted single figure scores in four of their last six games on the road. Against the Patriots, the games have also gone under the betting total, with seven of the last nine doing so.

Although the Jets have picked up defensively over the past couple of weeks, they still have the worst offense in the league averaging only 15 points per game. It’s easy to see why when you see that they are averaging just 275 yards per game and only 170 passing yards. This is largely down to a poor completion passing rate of just 57%, which is the third-lowest in the league.

As highlighted, their defense is improving, and it must be said that they have defended well against running teams this year, reducing their opponents to just over 100 rushing yards per game this season. However, they do have to get better at defending against teams that like to throw the ball around as their opponents are averaging a 69% passing completion success rate, which is the fourth-highest in the NFL. They also need to continue to make more tackles as they still have the second-lowest amount made this year.

However, another area that has picked up defensively in recent weeks is the number of forced fumbles made, as they now have the fourth highest made in the league.

Patriots Form

Since it was mathematically impossible for the Patriots to qualify for the playoffs, they have pretty much given up on the season, and they have produced three poor performances in a row losing by 21, 10, and 29!

Despite that, they still have a positive record at home to maintain, having won four of their seven fixtures. Furthermore, they have won 19 of their last 25 games at home, and three of those defeats have come in the last five games.

They haven’t done well against the spread recently, only winning two of the last six games.

Much like the Jets, their games have also gone under the betting total recently as six of the last seven have done so. However, unlike the Jets, this is largely down to a good defense, which is only averaging 22 points conceded per game.

Also, unlike the Jets, they defend against passing teams much better, only allowing an average of 221 yards per game. However, they have made the second-highest number of interceptions this year, just narrowly behind the Steelers. Cornerback JC Williams has been an integral part of this as he has made the second-highest number of interceptions in the league.

Another contrasting statistic is the number of forced fumbles made as the Patriots have the lowest count in the league.

Probably the key area in this game will be how well the Jets defense square up against the Patriots rushing game, which averages 145 yards per game, the fourth-highest in the league.

Jets vs. Patriots Pick

Pick
  • Under 43 Points
    -110

So you have two good defenses (in recent weeks for the Jets) going up against two mediocre offenses, this game has to be under the betting total. Yes, the total is very low, but under’s seems to stand out a mile here.

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