New York City FC vs. FC Dallas – MLS, September 14, 2021
New York City and FC Dallas meet for a cross-conference matchup this Tuesday, September 14, with both sides looking to snap a two-match winless streak.
NYCFC sits fourth in the Eastern Conference, although back-to-back losses have seen the club lose ground on the top three. Over in the West, the Texans find themselves third from bottom – four points outside the playoff places.
In this post, I analyze the teams before sharing my prediction and pick for New York City FC vs. FC Dallas. But first, let’s check out the odds and see what the bookies make of this clash.
New York City vs. FC Dallas Odds
As you would expect, New York City (1.40) is the bookmakers’ clear favorite to win this one. After all, Ronny Deila men’s have 34 points to their name, while Dallas (6.50) only has 26.
Although the high prices for the away win and the draw (4.75) are bound to attract plenty of attention, it is important to remember that NYCFC is in far stronger position than Dallas right now.
Let’s take a closer look at the teams.
Why I’m Backing New York City
If you look at New York City’s recent results, you will see they have suffered three defeats in their previous four games. That said, it is worth noting that Deila’s side has faced a series of tricky tests of late.
The Boys in Blue have lost to Philadelphia, Nashville, and New England in the past month – three of the top five teams in the East. Let’s not forget that they also beat the Revs 2-0 at the end of August.
When you look at the bigger picture, NYCFC has won ten of their 22 MLS matches this year. Only one team in the conference – New England – has picked up more wins in 2021.
Valentin Castellanos has been immense throughout the campaign, notching 11 goals and seven assists. With seven goals and four assists coming in his last nine outings, the in-form Argentine will be licking his lips at the prospect of exploiting Dallas’ leaky backline.
As well as boasting the joint-second best defensive record, Deila’s men are the joint-second highest scorers in the East – and Castellanos is the main reason for that.
Why FC Dallas Will Struggle
Not only have the Toros failed to win each of their last two outings, but they have also managed to win just one of their previous six. With two draws and three losses coming in that time, things don’t look great from a Dallas viewpoint.
Thanks to Ricardo Pepi’s equalizer, Luchi Gonzalez’s team claimed a 1-1 draw with San Jose on Saturday. The teenage sensation has been a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy campaign for Dallas, bagging 12 goals and in 22 MLS games this year.
After chalking up a goal and two assists in the USMNT’s 4-1 WCQ rout of Honduras last week, Pepi has managed five goals and two assists in his past four appearances for club and country. That said, the Toros’ overreliance on the 18-year-old is a cause for concern.
At the opposite end of the field, Gonzalez’s men can’t stop conceding goals. Having achieved just a single shutout in their previous nine matches, you probably won’t be surprised to learn that Dallas has the worst defensive record in the West.
Considering NYCFC’s goalscoring record this season, Dallas’ defensive record is only going to worsen on Tuesday.
My NYCFC vs. FC Dallas Prediction and Pick
New York City FC to Win2.20
In my eyes, this game provides New York City with the ideal opportunity to get back on track and return to winning ways. The Boys in Blue have faced a host of tough opponents in recent weeks, but Dallas isn’t likely to cause them too many problems.
As for the Texans, their playoff hopes look set to take another hit this week. Gonzalez’s men have taken just five points from a possible 18 over the past month and have conceded 12 goals during that period (two goals per game).
For that reason (and for many other reasons!), I’m backing free-scoring New York City to win by two clear goals on Tuesday.