New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions Betting – NFL, October 4, 2020

After a dominant performance to kick off the year against Tom Brady and the Bucs, it’s all gone downhill for the Saints. Two straight losses and an ankle injury to Michael Thomas and suddenly New Orleans isn’t so hot.

On the flip side, Detroit finally garnered some momentum by picking up a road against a talented Cardinals squad.

Looking ahead to the week 4 matchup at Ford Field, here’s a Saints vs. Lions prediction.

Installed as a four-point favorite, this line quickly bounced to 4.5 at some of the top sports betting sites. Michael Thomas’ status was a bit murky as of mid-week, although Adam Schefter tweeted out that the plan is for “Cantguardmike” to suit up on Sunday.

Saints’ WR Michael Thomas (ankle) is eyeing a Week 4 return:https://t.co/kO5Tn65fn1

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 27, 2020

Worth noting is that the “over” has hit in each of the Saints three games thus far. Perhaps Sean Payton’s defense isn’t as stout as we may have thought. 

If Michael Thomas is unable to go, don’t expect Drew Brees to try and reinvent the wheel. Look for him to pepper Alvin Kamara, just as he did versus the Packers on Sunday night. The Saints running back was targeted 14 times – or 8 more times than any other pass-catcher on the team.

New Orleans will also want to assert themselves on the ground with a steady dose of Latavius Murray. The Lions are surrendering 172.3 rushing yards per game (30^th in the NFL) and have struggled to penetrate the line of scrimmage. Just three-team sacks thus far (31^st in the NFL) for Matt Patricia’s bunch bodes well for Brees and the air attack.

Just when all sounds hunky-dory for the Saints, remember that their defense hasn’t been up to snuff.

Trending in the wrong direction after allowing more points in each subsequent week, New Orleans’ inability to get off the field on third down is what could keep Detroit hanging around (opponents have converted 48.8% of third downs). Matthew Stafford does a tremendous job extending broken plays and will benefit from Kenny Golladay being another week healthier.

As for hoping to see rookie D’Andre Swift in action, not so much. Even Kerryon Johnson appears to be an afterthought now that AP is in the building.

DET used the 43rd overall pick on Kerryon Johnson. And the 35th overall pick on D'Andre Swift. They're both healthy. Touches yesterday:

* Adrian Peterson 23
* Kerryon Johnson 4
* D'Andre Swift 1

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 28, 2020

The early money from the public is getting poured in on the Saints. After seeing between 69-73% of the ATS tickets bet on New Orleans, you can guess which side I’ll be leaning.

In fact, I have no problem waiting this thing out until closer to Sunday’s kickoff. By then we may be able to latch onto Detroit at +5, possibly even 5.5.

I like Stafford at home, and it’ll be hard for me to trust “The Who Dats” until Michael Thomas’ left ankle is back to 100%.

My Saints vs. Lions prediction is that if Stafford doesn’t go on to win this game, he’ll at least have a shot to do so coming down the stretch on Sunday. That’s where that 4.5-point cushion should come in handy.