New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors – NBA, May 14, 2021

By Dean McHugh in NBA
| May 14, 2021 8:56 am PDT

The Warriors host the Pelicans tonight, as fourth in the Pacific meets fourth in the Southwest. Both teams still have plenty to play for with two games to go, making this a mouth-watering matchup.

Although the Warriors have already claimed a pre-playoff berth and know who they will face in that matchup, they will still want to win their last two games of the regular season to try and wrestle home-court advantage away from the Grizzlies.

For the Pelicans, the equation is simple. They must win their remaining two games and hope the Kings lose theirs to try and claim the last pre-playoff spot in the west. However, it must be said that likely; they wouldn’t qualify even if that were to happen.

These two teams have split the last six games between them, alternating wins in the process. If that continues tonight, then it will be the Warriors coming away with the victory. They last met a little over a week ago in a doubleheader in New Orleans.

The Warriors claimed the first game-winning by 15-points, but they couldn’t follow that up the next night and went down by five. What’s strange is the Pelicans scored precisely 108-points in both games.

Could that happen again tonight? They indeed appear fired up to win the season tiebreaker between the two.

New Orleans won on their previous visit to the sunshine state, but they haven’t always enjoyed their visits as they have lost the last six matches there.

The Warriors tend to dominate the early proceedings between these two as they have taken an average of a five-point lead into the second half over the previous ten meetings.

Here are the game odds, my team analysis, and betting prediction.

Pelicans vs. Warriors Odds

Pelicans +3-110
Warriors -3-110
Pelicans To Win+130
Warriors To Win-142
Over 229 Points-110
Under 229 Points-110

I thought the spread might have been a point or two bigger than it is here, especially seen as the Pelicans have a poor record away to the Warriors.

However, saying that when they met in the double headers recently, it was the Warriors who the bookmakers gave the lead. It’s also worth noting the spread has almost halved since the betting opened as the money flocks in for the Pelicans.

The points total looks spot on and appears hard to take on either way.

All of the trends this season point towards a Warriors win as they have an excellent record at home to Western Conference teams, and that record improves when the bookmakers have made them the favorites.

Assessing the Pelicans

Looking at the Pelicans’ results recently, it would appear they have given up and are winding down towards the end of the season. They have lost three of their last four matches, with their only win coming against the Hornets.

New Orleans has been terrible travelers this season after only beginning 13 of their 35 games on the road this season. Although they have won three and lost three of their previous six road trips, they have lost three of the last four, including the previous two against the Grizzlies and the Mavericks.

Here are the latest betting trends for New Orleans:

Bet Type Trend
ATS New Orleans is 8-2 in their last ten games.
Total Five of their previous six matches have gone under the betting total.
SU They have lost four of their last six games.
SU The Pelicans have only one a quarter of their previous 20 matches against the Warriors.
ATS New Orleans has only lost one of their last eight games on the road.
SU They have only won on two of their previous two visits to the Chase Center.
Total Only two of their last ten matches against Western Conference opponents have failed to go under the betting total.
ATS The Pelicans have won five of their previous six games against teams based in the Pacific Division.

This trend suggests that the Warriors will win a low-scoring game, but they won’t cover the small handicap.

The Pelicans have a top ten offense this season that can give anyone a game on their day. Although their three-point shooting has been an area for concern, and you feel if this were marginally better, they would undoubtedly be playing postseason basketball this year.

They haven’t shot well from the free-throw line either, suggesting they have bottled the high-pressure shots this season.

Their most significant attribute in attack is their offensive rebounding which is second to none this season.

However, their defense has been dreadful and almost non-existent at times throughout the season.

Thankfully, like their offensive, their defense has also produced many defensive rebounds this season, and only God knows where they would be without that part of their game.

They also have an excellent disciplinary record. However, I believe they have been too ‘nice’ at times this year. The Pelicans can undoubtedly be a team referred to as non-aggressive.

The Pelicans have a long list of absentees tonight, and they include Ball, Hart, and Williamson. They also have the likes of Adams, Ingram, and Iwundu listed as questionable to feature.

Assessing the Warriors

The Warriors are playing some fantastic basketball at present after winning their last four straight. Their previous two victories include wins over the Jazz and the Suns, which shows which kind of form they’re in.

They have only lost one of their last seven matches, which came against tonight’s opponents.

Their form at home has been solid as they have won 23 and lost 11 of their 34 home fixtures this season. They have only dropped one loss from their previous nine games at the Chase Center.

That loss came at the hands of the Mavericks in a crushing 30-point defeat. What makes the loss worse is the fact the Mavericks were missing quite a few that night.

Here are the latest betting trends for Golden State:

Bet Type Trend
ATS The Warriors have only lost one of their previous seven matches.
Total All of their most recent five games against the Pelicans have gone under the betting total.
ATS They have won six of their previous seven matches against teams in the Western Conference.
Total Only two of their last ten games against teams from the Southwest Division have failed to go under the points total.
Total Four of their previous five matches played on a Friday have gone under the betting total.

Much like the Pelicans stats, these trends suggest the Warriors will win a low-scoring matchup.

The Warriors have a decent offense this season which has been particularly good at shooting from deep.

Given how poor the Pelicans have been in this area, the Warriors will look to dominate this department of the game tonight. Stephen Curry is a player who indeed excels in this area and, in fact, most areas.

The league’s leading scorer is up on most of his averages this season, showing age truly is nothing but a number.

However, an area they certainly won’t win is making more offensive rebounds as we have the team with the highest average in the league going up against the team with the lowest average.

The Warriors play a free-flowing style of basketball which is very easy on the eye and leads to many assists per game. Draymond Green has been one of the critical playmakers this season, and he has indeed shown he is much more than just a defensive player this season.

They have attacked much better at home, averaging three more points per game this season.

Despite them being one of the best teams to cover their opponents this season, particularly in and around the basket, their defense has been sub-standard.

Unlike their opponents tonight, the Warriors cannot be described as nice, and they certainly live up to their name most nights.

However, they have been known to overstep the mark on occasions, and this is something they will need to keep in check tonight and heading into the playoffs.

The Warriors have their own long list of injuries tonight, but you have to feel many of them are precautionary heading into the playoffs. Tonight, they will miss Thompson, Oubre Junior, Lee, and Wiseman.

The players carrying knocks and who might not play include Curry, Green, Wiggins, and Mulder. They are hopeful of having Paschall back tonight following a hip injury.

Pelicans vs. Warriors Pick

  • Under 22 Points

I fancied the Warriors strongly to win this one until I saw their injury list. While I still believe they will win given the Pelicans’ long list of absentees, my faith has dwindled slightly.

With both teams potentially missing their star players in Zion and Curry, you have to feel both offenses will be affected. Therefore, it seems to make more sense to pick under the betting total here.

Primarily seen as so many of their games recently has fallen under the points total. If you combine their two averages, this season also falls short of the total set tonight by a couple of points.