New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks – NBA, February 12, 2021

By Dean McHugh in NBA
| February 12, 2021 4:24 am PDT

A win for the Pelicans would see them overtake the Mavericks in the Southwest Division and, perhaps more importantly, move them closer to the Eastern Conference’s playoff spots.

However, it won’t be easy as Dallas has won the last four meetings between the two. Their games in Dallas have been much closer as two of the previous three matches have been level at the end of regular time and gone into overtime. Looking at the way these teams match up, I see this game being no different.

Here is my Pelicans vs. Mavericks game preview.

Pelicans vs. Mavericks Odds

Pelicans (+2.5) -110
Mavericks (-2.5) -110
Pelicans To Win +128
Mavericks To Win -145
Over 233.5 Points -110
Under 233.5 Points -110

This game has been priced up immaculately in my eyes, which, unfortunately for us, punters, is not such good news. However, I have plenty of information and trends to base an education play on, so carry on reading.

Pelicans Analysis

The Pelican’s best run of the season came to an abrupt end last night as the Bulls comfortably beat them. It was a strange game that neither team could dominate as they both won two-quarters of the match each. Before that loss, they had won their last four games in a row.

Although worryingly for them, they have been terrible on the road this season, winning only four of their 12 games. They have only won one of their previous five road trips, a narrow one-point victory against the Pacers. They almost blew that win as they let an 11 point lead heading into the final quarter slip.

Here are the latest betting trends for New Orleans:

Bet Type Trend
ATS They have won four of their last five matches.
Total The total has gone over in 15 of their previous 19 games.
ATS New Orleans has only won two of their previous seven games against Dallas.
Total Five of their last six matches on the road has gone over the betting total.
Total Only one of their previous five visits to Dallas has failed to go over the points total.
ATS They have a poor record against teams from the Western Conference, winning just six of their last 18 games.
SU The Pelicans thrive on playing their neighbors as they have won four of their previous six games against teams in the Southwest Division.

The Pelicans have an average looking offense that is good in some areas and weak in others.

They shoot well within the D, and they are rebounding well, but teams have worked out that if you sit back against them and close those gaps, you can stop them as they won’t hurt you from deep. They also haven’t shot well from the free-throw line, so their opponents know that they can also be aggressive in their approach. The Pelicans are seldom aggressive, which highlights the importance of taking this approach against them.

Unsurprisingly their attack hasn’t been as potent on the road this season, averaging four fewer points per game than their overall record.

Their defense follows a similar pattern, which is probably why they have been inconsistent for large parts of the season. One area that needs improving considerably is their blocking as they have the fifth-lowest average per game in the league.

They will be hoping that Josh Hart can return to the fine form that he showed against the Rockets recently by making a little piece of history.

The Pelicans have a healthy line up with no injury concerns.

Mavericks Analysis

The Mavericks have also won four of their last five games, including the previous three in a row. They won those three games by margins of two, five, and one showing that they can show guys and heart when it’s needed.

They have a slightly negative record of 5-7 from their 12 home games this season. After going six games without a win, they have picked up three in a row.

Here are the latest betting trends for Dallas:

Bet Type Trend
ATS The bookies appear to have overestimated the Mavericks recently as they have only won one of their previous 11 games.
Total Their last five matches have all gone over the betting total.
Total The total has gone over in eight of their previous 11 games against the Pelicans.
ATS Dallas has lost their last nine games in a row at home.
Total Four of their previous five matches against teams in the Western Conference have gone over the points total.
SU Like their opponents tonight, the Mavericks have also enjoyed playing familiar teams as they have won 12 of their last 17 games against teams in their Southwest Division.

The Mavericks have a very similar offense to the Pelicans, with the only real difference being their rebounding is no way near as good. Like their opponents tonight, they don’t shoot well from the three-point range; they are, in fact, worse.

They also don’t particularly move the ball around the court very well, which means they don’t make many assists. Their style of play focuses more on dribbling, which does mean they don’t tend to turn the ball over much. However, they certainly need to be more aggressive when driving to the basket. If they’re not, this could play into the Pelican’s hands.

Their defense is also alike, which is what makes this matchup so close and intriguing.

Luka Doncic has shown time and time again this season what a prized asset he is for the Mavericks. Speaking of prized assets, someone recently paid $800,000 for a limited-edition Luka Doncic rookie card, which shows just how well he is thought of throughout the game.

The Mavericks also have no injury worry tonight, so neither team can have any excuses.

Pelicans vs. Mavericks Betting Pick

I will throw the rulebook out the window for this game and ignore all of the trends that suggest that this game will go over the points total and pick under the points total. Neither team have an outstanding offense, and they both have decent defenses. With them being so closely matched, it could also mean that they are both slightly cautious. This is by far the largest total that either team has faced recently, which gives the selection even more hope.

  • Under 233.5 Points



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