New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Preview – NFL Week 14, 2020

The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams face off on Thursday Night Football to get week 14 going in the NFL.

Bill Belichick and co. are back at .500 with a 6-6 record, but arguably need to win their remaining four games just for a shot at the playoffs in the AFC.

L.A. is sitting a bit more comfortably at 8-4 but needs to keep winning to fend off Seattle to win the NFC West. They could have trouble doing so, of course, especially if the last meeting with New England (a 13-3 loss in the Super Bowl) tells us anything.

Plan on betting on Thursday Night Football? Join me as I break down this game with my Patriots vs. Rams prediction and betting pick.

I was a bit surprised to see the Rams as such big favorites. If you take a quick look at my early week 14 NFL betting lines breakdown, you’ll see New England were even bigger underdogs when odds opened.

That’s changed slightly, but bettors are still salivating over the potential value they get with the Pats.

L.A. is 4-1 at home this season, and New England is just 2-4 on the road. Both of these splits could play into the pricing somewhat, while the Rams have obviously been the more cohesive unit on the year.

The value lies with the Patriots across the board, so you’ll have to ask yourself if you think they can stage the upset or which side of the spread you can trust. This game total feels tricky, though.

Los Angeles is capable of blowing up offensively, but the Patriots have looked dominant on defense in recent weeks. A weird 44 game total makes it tough to peg how bettors should approach this one.

The Patriots have not won games in a very pretty fashion, but they’re still grinding out victories. Cam Newton has been held under 85 passing yards in two straight games, but the Pats won both times.

New England has been extremely limited through the air on offense this year, but they also have played to their strengths. That’s led to the NFL’s third-best running game by the numbers, and Cam Newton’s presence near the goal-line must be accounted for.

The Pats are in good form, as they’ve won two in a row and four of their last five. The defense also just got done pitching a shutout against the Chargers, and the week before corralled Kyler Murray.

If New England’s defense is suddenly legit again, they will be a very tough out on TNF and beyond.

The Rams are the big favorites here, mostly because they’re at home, and it doesn’t seem like anyone believes in New England these days.

If we’re to put any stock in coaching, Sean McVay remains a brilliant mind, but it’s quite possible Belichick is still several notches higher. That was certainly the case when his offense got completely stifled on the game’s biggest stage two years ago, and you have to wonder if it happens again here.

Jared Goff bounced back with a nice performance last week, but just two games ago, McVay had to field questions about a possible benching.

Rams coach Sean McVay was asked on Monday whether he considered benching QB Jared Goff; McVay's answer wasn't as quick and dismissive as you'd expect https://t.co/9q1TIQdt32

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) December 1, 2020

If Goff struggles again in what may be a tough matchup, the Rams as a whole could have major issues.

Defensively, the Rams can match New England. They get a favor against the Patriots’ weak passing attack, and if they play the way they’ve been playing, they’ll have a shot to hold serve at home.

The total tells you all you need to know about this game. Both defenses are in a groove, neither passing game can be totally trusted, and you have two geniuses roaming the sidelines, looking to play chess.

It’s probably going to be the most thrilling 13-10 game we see all year.

The most unlikely scenario – in my mind – is either team coming out and just going off through the air. Both defenses are going to come in with a ton of energy, and we should not anticipate a lot of points in this one.

Given the way they’ve played, this favors the Pats greatly. It is rarely a good idea to bet against Bill Belichick, and after a slow start, he has his team focused and rolling.

Going into L.A. and getting a win won’t be easy, but the Pats just did it against the Chargers. I think they do it again, as seen in my week 14 NFL parlay pick. However, in the name of simply cashing, I love the Patriots to just beat this spread. If you want to be a bit bolder, go for the upset play.