NBA DFS Picks and Advice for Friday, October 29, 2021
Luka Doncic chalk can go wrong, it seems. I didn’t hand out NBA DFS picks last night, but judging by the Mavs star’s 58% ownership, you were probably on him.
And he failed miserably.
Meanwhile, Maxi Kleber went off, and Montrezl Harrell was insanely good chalk. It was a weird night, but I found a way to cash, which might mean the process was fine.
Going into Friday, Malcolm Brogdon is out, while a slew of other big names are at risk of sitting. You’ll need to monitor the news and adjust accordingly. Until then, here are my favorite NBA DFS picks, a few sleepers, and my top overall lineup for Friday, October 29.
Top NBA DFS Picks for October 29
- Luka Doncic, PG, Mavericks ($11k)
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker, SG, Pelicans ($6.7k)
- Brandon Ingram, SF, Pelicans ($8.7k)
- Domantas Sabonis, PF, Pacers ($9.4k)
- Anthony Davis, C, Lakers ($9.5k)
Luka Doncic may be an auto play again if Kristaps Porzingis is out for the second straight game.
Kristaps Porzingis: Will be re-evaluated Friday https://t.co/tBHAlpMxyd
— RotoWire? (@RotoWireNBA) October 28, 2021
You can play Doncic no matter what – and you can also be mad about his performance last night – but the reality is he’s got the best projection of anyone on the slate. The only question is if he’s totally necessary.
On the other side of that game is NAW, who remains a palatable salary. He’s coming off of a down game, but this is a sublime matchup. He’s been steady, otherwise, topping 32+ fantasy points in every other contest this season.
A blow-up performance is just around the corner.
Ingram is in a smash spot, as the top NBA betting sites have his game with the Kings (26th in defensive efficiency) pegged for a nice 220 game total.
Sabonis feels like a fantastic stud to build around, or pair with Doncic. His price is right about where it should be, although he’s exhibited enough upside to broach 60+ fantasy points with ease.
It hasn’t happened yet, but he’ll see even more work with Brogdon out. Sabonis averages 1.39 fantasy points with a 23.3% usage rate in such situations, and the Nets (8th in pace) are a solid matchup for him.
I doubt the ownership will be high, as Davis remains a constant in-game injury risk, and a James return would cloud his upside. Without James, however, Davis can break the slate.
He’s too cheap if that ends up being the case (as would be Russell Westbrook), so consider rolling the dice for this late-night hammer.
Best NBA DFS Sleepers for Friday
- T.J. McConnell, PG, Pacers ($5.5k)
- Malik Monk, SG, Lakers ($4.4k)
- Bruce Brown, SF, Nets ($3.8k)
- Maxi Kleber, PF, Mavericks ($3.3k)
- JaMychal Green, C, Nuggets ($3.1k)
I don’t love McConnell’s price. It’s pretty arguable he isn’t a true sleeper, either, seeing as there’s a good chance he’s a chalky play with Brogdon sidelined.
Coach Carlisle provided the following injury updates during his media availability today:
Isaiah Jackson is going to be out for “a while.”
Malcolm Brogdon has a strained hamstring and will be out tomorrow.
— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) October 28, 2021
Chris Duarte is as much of a sleeper, then, but hey, McConnell looks like a good play. He comes in with the third best points per dollar projection per RotoGrinders.com, and he averages 1.13 fantasy points per minute with Brogdon off the floor.
LeBron James is still sidelined, which could leave the door open for Monk to be a solid value play. He’s topped 30 minutes in his last two games, and he’s capable of getting hot offensively. He’ll be a tough sell, though, as the Lakers are the last game of the night.
I was one of the people that rostered Bruce Brown on opening night and lived to speak of the horrors. It was regrettable, but the Nets have given him his role back.
With Brown a starter again and seeing his minutes climb every game (up to 35 minutes last time out), he’s impossible to ignore.
Kleber went nuts last night, so hopefully you were able to bask in the glory of his nice double-double outing.
I don’t expect that to happen again, but he will again be on the table should Porzingis remain out.
Lastly, there’s Green, who could end up drawing a start if Nikola Jokic can’t go. Jokic exited his last game and didn’t return. Here’s what Mike Singer of the Denver Post had to say.
This sounds more like a pain tolerance or team caution decision. Considering how important The Joker is, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him take it easy and sit one out.
It’s not like Green is a lock to smash if that’s the case, but he’s just too cheap if he gets the nod.
My Favorite NBA DFS Lineup for October 29
- PG: Luka Doncic – Mavericks ($11k)
- SG: Bruce Brown – Nets ($3.8k)
- SF: Michael Porter Jr. – Nuggets ($6.5k)
- PF: Aaron Gordon – Nuggets ($5k)
- C: JaMychal Green – Nuggets ($3.1k)
- G: De’Aaron Fox – Kings ($8.4k)
- F: Maxi Kleber – Mavericks ($3.3k)
- UTIL: Brandon Ingram – Pelicans ($8.7k)
I will flirt with some NBA DFS lineups where I fade a potentially chalky Doncic. However, this slate has a lot of options up top, so if ownership is at all low, I’ll gladly go back to the well.
He and Kleber are a fine pairing if Porzingis is going to be out again, while the Nuggets guys all make sense if Jokic sits. MPJ could have his first blow-up game of the year, while Gordon and Green are fine values. Monte Morris would even be another fine option to consider.
Fox is too cheap, and he and Ingram pair together as a mini Kings vs. Pels stack. Bruce Brown closes things out with a cheap starter who could pay off his price tag.
There are always going to be several paths to take, but this is a good start for a 7-game slate. If you love DFS and want help in other areas, check out some of the posts below for this weekend.