Predictions and Betting Tips for the NASCAR South Point 400 (2021)

| September 24, 2021 5:21 am PDT

Kyle Larson. How could I have ever doubted you?

Larson’s odds for the 2021 South Point 400 at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway this Sunday, September 26, are unsurprisingly short.

Following last weekend’s sublime win at Bristol, “Young Money” is the favorite to win the Cup Series Round of 12 opener, and it takes a brave bettor to look past him.

With that being said, there are some genuine threats to Larson on the field. But perhaps more pertinently, some great Cup Series odds for the South Point 400 that you should look over. 

Let’s start with the bookies’ prices for NASCAR’s latest battle in Vegas. 

Latest Odds for the South Point 400 in 2021

I’ve cut the NASCAR odds for the 2021 South Point 400 off at Christopher Bell.

Head over to the best online sportsbooks for the prices of anyone further down the pecking order.

So, as we have established, Larson is the favorite for the Cup Series Playoff race this weekend. At +350, he’s almost 50% shorter than the next in line, Kyle Busch, who looks intriguing at +600.

Although the Las Vegas-native will be one of the hometown heroes this Sunday, Busch has just one win here (2011).

Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex, Chase Elliott, and Joey Logano are all viable picks for Vegas on September 26. However, I can also see bettors looking to last weekend’s runner-up, Kevin Harvick, as a top prediction to win the South Point 400.

Outside the top ten, there are Cup Series prop bets for this weekend also worth looking at. Remember, you’re not restricted to just betting on who wins the race.

2021 South Point 400 Best Bets

Kyle Larson Top-3 Finish+120
Kevin Harvick Top-5 Finish+140
Martin Truex Jr. to Win+900

Larson’s going to be right up there. 

And although there is a chance this might come back to haunt me, I’m going to go with the safe bet.

Instead of making the #5 the focus of my best picks for the South Point 400, I’ll take him to finish in the top-3 at a very reasonable +120.

If not for some crafty teamwork last weekend, Kevin Harvick would have likely won in Bristol.

I think we’re seeing a bit of the old devil in recent weeks and think he is one of the top bets for the Cup Series Round of 12 opener. But once again, I’m taking a safer approach and backing him to push his way into the top-5 at a nice +140.

As for who wins the South Point 400 in 2021? Well, it’s hard to look past Martin Truex Jr. 

Truex was my pick for 2020’s edition of the Vegas run-off but could only manage 6th place on the night.

This weekend, however, he should be in much better form. Let’s hope that UFC president Dana White, who is set to give the command, gets him going.

Betting on the 2021 South Point 400 Winner

There are some really good options on the field, with the likes of Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch as top contenders.

Busch will be desperate to get the bragging rights over last year’s winner; his big brother, Kurt.

Chase Elliott should not be ignored, but 26th, 22nd, and 13th places from his last three starts here are offputting.

Denny Hamlin has never won in Las Vegas and is another driver that might flatter to deceive on the day. His chances are not reflective of the odds available (+700), thus why I’m passing on the Floridian.

It might be tempting for some bettors to put their money on Kevin Harvick’s odds for the South Point 400 this weekend, but as stated above, I’m not keen on him winning the race.

Other usual suspects like Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski might tempt, but erratic form suggests that they are not wise punts.

You can claim that a few drivers looking in from the outside have a shot. But from the perspective of a smart bettor who advocates expert NASCAR betting strategies, you want more than that.

Thus, that brings me to Martin Truex Jr.

Odds of +750 to win the race are nice for a driver that has been in solid form as of late. He has claimed 4th, 1st, and 7th in the 2021 Cup Series Playoffs thus far and has an impressive average finish of 10.74 from 19 starts at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Breaking down his stats, Truex has two wins and six top-5s from those 19 races, with two wins coming from his last eight at “The Diamond in the Desert.” 

He has finished outside the top-8 just twice from his last ten races, too. 

A good track record plus form makes Truex my top pick for the South Point 400 in 2021.

That’s a Wrap

If betting tips for the 2021 South Point 400 this Sunday is what you are after, I’m confident that my predictions and picks should help.

Truex gets the nod for the second year running, and I really like his chances of putting in a good shift. The conditions should suit him just fine, with a starting place of 4th on the grid fairly ideal.

If you’re looking for more recommended NASCAR bets and sleepers, as well as some quality Cup Series DFS advice from in-house guru Noah Davis, hit up the following section of our site.

Enjoy the race!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

More Posts by Adam Contact Adam

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