NASCAR Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Sleepers for 2021

| March 19, 2021 11:25 am PDT

Chewing on some numbers and stats earlier today, I quickly noticed something a little crazy.

Three of my four sleepers for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 last year won’t feature in this race. Jimmy Johnson, Matt Kenseth, and Clint Bowyer have all hung up their helmets. 

A lot can change in a year, especially when betting on NASCAR. Even so, there is a familiar face in my 2021 sleeper picks for the QuikTrip 500 this Sunday in Atlanta. One that looks as appealing as he did ahead of last year’s edition of the race.

I’m sure you’ll recognize this first name.

Kurt Busch +2200

Let’s start with Kurt Busch. 

If you’re looking for the best sleeper pick for the QuikTrip 500 this weekend, he just might be it. Why? Well, let’s just say that Busch has a very impressive record here. 

Here are a few of the reasons why Busch could be the top Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 value bet for 2021.

  • Busch has won three times at Atlanta
  • He has failed to finish outside of the top 10 just once in his last ten races
  • Busch has 12 top-10s from his last 16 races, with two top-13s and one DNF
  • He has six top-4s in that same timeframe
  • Busch finished 6th in 2020’s edition and is the fifth-best driver here since February 2018

At odds of +2200, Busch is one of the top outside betting picks for NASCAR this weekend.

I backed him to do well in 2020, and he finished a very respectable 6th place. I’m predicting another strong showing from the Las Vegas man on March 21.

Aric Almirola +5000

Aric Almirola is another driver bettors are sleeping on ahead of the 2021 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.

At the very least, the oddsmakers aren’t giving Almirola the respect he deserves at Atlanta. I mean, with an average finish of 12.67 since February 2018, Almirola has fared better at Atlanta than drivers such as Joey Logano. So, he’s definitely a longshot bet for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 this Saturday.

The driver behind the wheel of the No. 10 Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing was never going to be among the favorites for the QuikTrip 500. Still, in 2019 he finished 9th and there is reason to believe that he can do better this time.

With a bit of luck, anything can happen. If you’re keeping a shortlist, add Almirola to Finish in the top-3 (+1200) as one to target. 

One of the best NASCAR longshot wagers this week, in my opinion, is a low stake bet on Almirola for the win. Stranger things have happened.

Austin Dillon +6000

The last of my sleeper picks for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 in 2021 is Austin Dillon.

Dillon will take to the grid in the No. 3 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 1LE this weekend looking for his first win at Atlanta. Now, I’m not quite sure he will be confident of seeing off the betting favorites for the QuikTrip 500, but there is no doubt that he has the potential to beat his best finish of 11th on Sunday.

Dillon is +1500 to finish in the to-3, which is also worth a pop. Once again, make it short change or low stakes as the odds are against him.

Still, I’m comfortable closing out my QuikTrip 500 sleepers with Dillon. 

More Bets for the 2021 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500

I’m playing things a little simple ahead of this weekend’s race. 

My predictions for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 are contained to a handful of drivers, as I don’t consider this a race that is going to be mega open.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that long shot NASCAR bets for Sunday’s trip to Atlanta are a bad idea. As we have already seen this season, anything can happen. So, if you’re looking to win money with some smart 2021 NASCAR QuikTrip 500 sleepers, feel free to consider my recommended drivers.

However, if you want to keep things a little tighter, check out my predictions and betting pick for the QuikTrip 500.

Enjoy the race!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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