NASCAR Cup Series DFS Picks for Las Vegas – Sunday, September 26 (2021)

| September 24, 2021 10:04 am PDT

The Round of 16 concluded with Kyle Larson winning his sixth race of the season. Our top driver last week led 175 laps and had the fastest lap 97 times. Chase Elliott also had a great day that saw him lead 129 laps, but a late flat tire relegated him to a 25th place finish.

This week, the Round of 12 kicks off in Sin City. We’ll see the Cup cars at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday, September 26. Fans can tune in to NBCSN at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Here is my top DFS lineup for Las Vegas.

Kyle Larson ($11.2k)

It’s hard to bet against Kyle Larson right now.

The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet is coming off his sixth victory of the season. He has led at least 27 laps in five of the last seven races. 

This week, Larson heads to the track that he picked up his first win of the season.

When Larson came to Las Vegas in the Spring, he had never won on a 1.5-mile track. He had come close many times, including three top-three finishes at Las Vegas, but he could never finish the job. Larson put all that talk to rest with his performance in the Spring.

He led 103 of 267 laps en route to his first win of the season. He also had a race-high 57 fastest laps.

His success this season on 1.5-mile tracks goes well beyond Las Vegas. Check out some of his other top performances.

Finishing Position Laps Led Fastest Laps
Homestead (267 laps) 4th 5 18
Atlanta (325 laps) 2nd 269 104
Kansas (267 laps) 19th 132 67
Charlotte (400 laps) 1st 327 69
Pocono (130 laps) 9th 15 23

It’s clear that Larson knows how to run up front and lead laps on these types of tracks. He has been the best driver on 1.5-mile tracks, and I expect another strong run from him this weekend.

Larson starts on the pole, so you won’t see any points on place differential. But just look at that table and see all those laps led and fastest laps. They more than make up for the starting position.

Ryan Blaney ($9.1k)

No one entered the playoffs with more momentum than Ryan Blaney. He was coming off back-to-back wins that moved him up to second in the standings.

Blaney struggled to open the playoffs, but he is coming off a fourth-place finish and led 45 laps at Bristol. He’ll look to return to victory lane at one of his best tracks.

In 10 career starts at Las Vegas, Blaney has four top-five finishes and seven top 10 finishes. In the Spring 2020 race, Blaney was in position to pick up his first win at the track. Unfortunately, a caution with five laps to go erased his lead, and he fell back to 11th on the final restart.

He finished 5th in the Spring race earlier this season.

We’ve seen Blaney have a lot of success with the 550-horsepower package. Two of his wins this season, Atlanta and Michigan, came in races that used the package. He also finished fifth in the second Atlanta race.

In terms of layout, the track closest to Las Vegas is Kansas. Blaney was on the front row for the final restart there earlier this season when contact with Kyle Larson relegated him to a 21st place finish.

Blaney starts on the outside of the front row for Sunday’s race. Like Larson, you won’t be getting much point differential. However, I believe he can challenge Larson for the win.

If nothing else, we’ll see him up front leading laps and putting down some fast laps.

William Byron ($8.9k)

William Byron went into Bristol facing an 18-point deficit. It was a tough deficit to overcome, but a third-place finish earned him a spot in the Round of 12. With new life, Byron is ready to kick things off on the right foot.

Byron hasn’t had a ton of success in his career at Las Vegas. His eighth-place run there in the Spring was just his second top 15 finish in seven career starts. However, he did lead over 10 laps for the third time in his career at Las Vegas. His 31 fastest laps were second-most in the field.

The main reason I’m high on Byron this week is his success on the 550-horsepower tracks. Check out a few of his best performances with the package this season.

Finishing Position Laps Led Fastest Laps
Homestead (267 laps) 1st 102 33
Charlotte (400 laps) 4th 19 51
Pocono 1 (130 laps) 3rd 13 11
Pocono 2 (140 laps) 12th 22 16
Michigan (200 laps) 2nd 18 25

Byron had the lead in the second Pocono race but had to pit under five laps to go for fuel. At Michigan, he led on the final restart, but contact with Denny Hamlin forced him out of the lead.

It’s just little things like that that have kept Byron from picking up his second victory of the season.

After what happened in the Round of 16, I can’t see Byron starting slow at Las Vegas. He starts third, and I expect him to run in the top five all race.

Top NASCAR DFS Lineup for September 26

  • Kyle Laron (11.2k)
  • Ryan Blaney ($9.1k)
  • William Byron ($8.9k)
  • Chris Buescher ($7.3k)
  • Michael McDowell ($5.9k)
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6.8k)

Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, and William Byron are my top contenders for the win. I chose to fill out the rest of my lineup with drivers that can exceed their starting position.

Chris Buescher has seven consecutive finishes of 18th or better at Las Vegas. That includes a 9th place finish in the Fall race last season. He also led 10 laps in that race.

He has three finishes of eighth or better on 1.5-mile tracks this season. Buescher even led 57 laps at Homestead. He starts 25th on Sunday and has top 10 potential.

Michael McDowell is out of the playoffs, but we can’t ignore his success on 1.5-mile tracks. He finished sixth at Homestead and 13th at Kansas. A 17th place finish at Las Vegas probably isn’t wowing many people, but he has what it takes to improve upon his 23rd place starting position.

I wouldn’t rule out a top 15 run for McDowell.

We’ve seen Ricky Stenhouse Jr. run well in Las Vegas. He led 30 laps in the Spring 2020 race and came home with a third-place finish. This season, he finished 11th.

When you look at 550-horsepower tracks, Stenhouse has six finishes of 15th or better this season. It won’t be flashy, but a top 15 finish is within the range of outcomes this weekend. He’ll roll off the grid 22nd.

Betting on the 2021 South Point 400

So far, I’m two for two on my race winner and top option in my DFS lineup. I know he won last week, but I’m going with Kyle Larson to make it back-to-back and sweep the Las Vegas races.

I can’t deny their speed on 1.5-mile tracks as well as 550-horsepower tracks. In the playoffs, we typically see the best of the best rise to the top. That’s exactly what Larson will do as he punches his ticket to the Round of 8.

If you want more opportunities to bet on NASCAR, be sure to check out my best bets to win the Xfinity Series race at Las Vegas.

Nicholas Sterling
Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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