Napoli vs. AC Milan – Serie A, November 22, 2020

By Admir Aljic in Soccer
| November 20, 2020 10:05 am PDT

After suffering a surprising 2-0 home loss to Sassuolo, Napoli responded with a pair of road wins over Rijeka in the Europa League and Bologna in Serie A. They climbed up to the top of their UEL group with six points, while Gennaro Gattuso’s side is in 3rd position in the league with 14 points after seven rounds, three points behind the league leaders AC Milan.

AC Milan is experiencing the worst period of the season so far because they failed to get a win in the last two matches. Following a heavy 3-0 home loss to Lille in the Europa League, they barely salvaged a point against Verona at home as Zlatan Ibrahimovic scored the equalizer in injury time. Still, the Rossoneri are at the top of the table with 17 points, but that could change if they suffer a defeat on Sunday.

Take a look at my Napoli vs. AC Milan betting prediction and get the latest news, stats, and H2H record along the way.

Napoli vs. AC Milan Odds

Napoli pk-130
Milan pk+129
Napoli to Win+133
Milan to Win+206
Draw+290
Over 2.5-137
Under 2.5+129

Napoli Team News and Stats

Without a draw in 16 matches (W10, L6), Napoli is a narrow favorite here, despite trailing Milan by three points. They have won five (L1) of their previous six Serie A home games, with the Rossoneri winning the second 45 minutes with a clean sheet in four of those five wins.

A significant 13 of the last 15 games in Napoli’s current streak of competitive games won/lost have favored the opening scorers. Within that span, the same can be said about ten of Napoli’s previous 11 Serie A matches, and the average win/loss difference in those 11 games stands at 2.27 goals.

Gennaro Gattuso will be without Elseid Hysaj (illness) and Victor Osimhen (arm).

AC Milan Team News and Stats

AC Milan remains without a loss in Serie A (home/away) since the end of the previous campaign’s COVID-enforced hiatus (W14, D5). Eleven of those victories came via a 2+ goal difference, while eight of the last nine wins therein saw Milan leads at halftime by one goal. In turn, Milan boasts an impressive 73.33% rate of halftime/fulltime doubles in their last 15 Serie A wins.

The visitors are on the first run of five Serie A road victories since 2005, and the run was halted on that occasion via a 2-1 loss. In relation to their high rate of halftime/fulltime wins, Milan scored the opening goal inside 20 minutes on four occasions during their current five-match streak of road wins in the league.

Stefano Pioli cannot count on Mateo Musacchio (muscle) and Rafael Leao (thigh).

Napoli vs. AC Milan Pick

Pick
  • BTTS YES
    -154

Napoli won four of the previous ten H2H encounters (D5, L1), but is without a win in the last four (D3, L1), while the Blues were victorious in three of the past four meetings at Stadio San Paolo (D1). Milan recorded just one win at this venue in this century, and it was in 2010, so I seriously doubt the Rossoneri can win here. I am leaning toward Napoli in this one, but I will avoid betting on the winner.

Seven of the last ten H2H duels produced goals on both ends, and I am backing BTTS for that reason.

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