Osaka vs. Swiatek Pick for 2022 WTA Miami Open Final (April 2)

| April 1, 2022 4:06 am PDT

The future WTA no.1 Iga Swiatek is squaring off with the former no.1 Naomi Osaka in the final of the Women’s Singles tournament at the 2022 Miami Open. Bookmakers suggest Swiatek will win, giving the odds as short as -182 on the Polish 20-year-old.

Whether she wins or not, Swiatek will get to the summit of the WTA Rankings, as the current no.1 – Ashleigh Barty – has decided to retire.

Still, Swiatek does have an incentive to win on Saturday. If she does it, she’ll win her third title of the year, extending her winning streak to 17 matches. She’ll also become only the fourth female player in history to do the Sunshine Double in one year.

The bad news for Swiatek is that she’s taking on in-form Osaka, who’s been nothing short of impressive this year at Miami Gardens. She did drop one set in the semifinal against Belinda Bencic, but we also saw Osaka shoot record-breaking 18 aces – more than any other player in any other match in 2022.

Osaka vs. Swiatek Odds

Naomi Osaka to Win+150
Iga Swiatek to Win-182
Over 21.5 Games-125
Under 21.5 Games-110

Leading tennis sportsbooks like Betway see Iga Swiatek as the favorite to win the 2022 WTA Miami Open. No surprise there as, starting next Monday, she’s going to be the highest-ranked female tennis player in the world.

Osaka too is going to move up in the rankings, possibly even by a few dozen spots. Still, she won’t get anywhere near Swiatek, the reason being that her current position is 77.

There’s an explanation behind Osaka’s disappointing ranking. She’s played just 56 matches since 2019. In comparison, Swiatek has played as many matches within the past 12 months.

Are Bookies Right to Think of Swiatek as Odds-On Favorite?

In just two days, Swiatek will take over the WTA world no. 1 from Barty, thus becoming the first player born after the year 2000 to get to the top of the Women’s Singles Rankings.

There are two reasons why Iga is going to ascend to the WTA throne. The first one is that the current no.1 has decided to retire. The other reason is that Swiatek has been superb over the past couple of months, collecting plenty of ranking points along the way.

Last year, she won two titles total. Just three months into 2022 and she’s already won as many, with a great chance of adding another one to her collection. 

The first tournament she won in 2022 was the WTA Doha in late February. Next came the Indian Wells where we saw her form improve significantly. After winning the first three matches by 2-1 each, she won the next three in straight sets. This includes the final against WTA no.3 Maria Sakkari.

After winning the title in the first tournament of the Sunny Double, her next destination is Miami. Since coming to Florida, we’ve seen her win every single match by 2-0 in sets.

In fact, she’s dropped only 22 games in total in the five games played at Hard Rock Stadium. That’s just 4.5 games against her per match on average. In comparison, Osaka’s average is 7.6 games dropped per match.  

Are We Witnessing Osaka’s Resurgence?

Iga Swiatek hasn’t dropped a single set in this tournament. Actually, she’s won each of her previous eight matches by 2-0. Naomi Osaka hasn’t been as impressive, but she did put on some great performances at Hard Rock Stadium.

For instance, her display against Olympic gold medalist Belinda Bencic in the semifinal was nothing short of brilliant. She did lose the first set, but we then saw her bounce back to win the next two.

Osaka pulled off the comeback thanks to her amazing serve. She served 18 aces in the Miami Open semifinal, the most aces in one match in 2022.

If she’s playing so well, how come is she ranked so low in the WTA Rankings? It’s because Osaka was very disappointing in the tournaments leading to the 2022 Miami Open.

For example, she got knocked out of the Australian Open by unseeded Amanda Anisimova, losing most of the points she was defending as the 2021 champ.

Before that, we also saw her exit the WTA Melbourne early, which was her first tournament after a four-month hiatus.

2022 WTA Miami Open Final Prediction

  • Iga Swiatek to Win

Thirteen days after winning the Indian Wells, Swiatek has a chance to win the Miami Open, thus completing the Sunshine Double.

By doing that, she would join an elite club of players who have won the Sunshine Double in a calendar year. To date, there are only three women in history who have achieved that feat – Victoria Azarenka, Kim Clijsters, and Steffi Graff.

It’s not going to be easy, though. Osaka is on a roll, with some pretty good performances over the last couple of weeks. Plus, the Japanese player seems to be happy playing tennis, which wasn’t the case just a few months ago.

As a reminder, Osaka skipped the last year’s French Open, citing mental health issues as the reason. But now, she seems to be in a very good spot. History teaches us that when she’s happy, Osaka usually does very well. Still, in this case, “well” doesn’t mean winning. However, we could see her winning plenty of games (or even a set) on Saturday.

That said, I have another Miami Open prediction for you – Osaka vs. Swiatek Over 21.5 Games (-125).

Zarko Naric

Zarko Naric – the World's Greatest Sportswriter, according to his grandma.

Zarko started writing for in 2019, covering sports like soccer, tennis, and basketball,  as well as some more niche sports like cycling, for example.

In addition to writing news, picks, and blog pieces focused on sports, Zarko’s also been covering politics, TV/music contests, and so on.

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