MMA DFS Picks and Lineup Advice for UFC Fight Night 196

| October 21, 2021 7:29 am PDT

MMA fans are in for a treat this weekend, as UFC Fight Night 196 offers an awesome main event, and a strong overall card behind it.

I am feeling pretty good right about now, as last week’s MMA DFS picks were spot on. Had Aspen Ladd not turned in a truly horrible performance in the main event, readers of my weekly daily fantasy MMA picks could have won big.

Prior to Ladd, all of my fighters scored wins, and I was looking at a nice finish if she came through. I still cashed (and I assume you did, too.), and that’s a friendly reminder that getting a clean sweep in UFC DFS simply isn’t easy.

I also handed out some good bets, as Ariane Carnelossi won (-157), and Bruno Silva (+145) won by KO.

UFC Fight Night 196 features an intense clash between Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori, as well as an underrated overall card. Ready to play some daily fantasy MMA? Join me as I break down my top MMA DFS picks, my favorite lineup, and my preferred bets.

Top MMA DFS Picks for UFC Vegas 41

Last week’s MMA DFS picks core was strong. I hit on two of them, and one fighter bowed out of the event. I personally was successful finding a replacement, and I hope you were, as well.

This weekend’s fight card looks fun, and I have to believe most UFC DFS lineups will have at least one guy from the main event.

Let’s see who makes the cut in my top UFC Fight Night 196 DFS picks.

Paulo Costa ($7.6k)

If you’ve followed my MMA DFS picks, you’ll know that trying to predict the main event has been the bane of my existence.

I flip flop between the favorite and underdog, and I keep getting burned. Going into UFC Fight Night 196, I’m just swinging for the fences.

That brings me to Costa, who has periods of head-scratching inactivity, but has major power.

He’s undeniably the bigger threat to win by stoppage. His lone loss of his career? A rough TKO defeat by the hands of Israel Adesanya.

Nobody will raise an eyebrow to that. Marvin Vettori especially won’t, seeing as his latest loss came against – you guessed it – Adesanya.

I do think Vettori is the more well-rounded fighter in this one. If Costa can’t get the finish, it’s going five rounds and Vettori is almost certainly taking it.

Vettori has just one win via stoppage in his last 10 fights, and early domination is really all Costa knows. He’s cheaper, he has more upside here, and he’ll be eager to leave his frustrating loss to Adesanya.

I’m not alone here, either. Resident MMA betting expert Adam Haynes is with me on Costa getting the win. See how he thinks it all goes down in his Costa vs. Vettori betting pick.

Grant Dawson ($9.3k)

Costa is my cheap play in my MMA DFS picks this week, and Dawson is the best spend-up option.

KGD is 17-1 for his career and 5-0 in the UFC. The 27-year old has gotten KO’d one time in his career, but has won eight in a row since that defeat, and he’s displayed elite ability on the canvas.

In fact, that’s precisely his planned path to a win in this fight.

Dawson may be a bit vulnerable if this fight stays on the feet, as Ricky Glenn has 12 career knockouts. However, the 32-year old only has one KO to his name in his last eight bouts.

I favor Dawson on the ground, and if his defense is up to snuff, he looks like the right call. The top UFC betting sites have him listed as a hefty -350 favorite, and I’ll be hitching my wagon to that logic.

Daniel Lacerda ($7.5k)

Okay, I lied. I’m giving you two elite value plays in my core daily fantasy MMA picks here.

His name is actually Daniel Da Silva on DraftKings, so be sure to click the right guy. This is a very interesting prospect, as he’s making his UFC debut, and offers monster upside.

Jeff Molina is not an easy opponent, to be clear. He was straight fire with 188 significant strikes over three rounds in his own debut last time out (which he won), and he’s on a nice eight-fight winning streak.

I just think Lacerda is the sexier prospect, and he’s coming in to make his presence known. He does have a loss on his ledger, but he got a TKO back in 2019 due to an arm injury, and has otherwise worked his way to 11 finish wins.

Lacerda is ruthless, and one could argue he’s actually being disrespected as a +134 underdog at BetOnline. I think this fight is a really close call, but he has exceptional finishing ability, and he’s an elite value.

My Top UFC Vegas 41 Lineup

  • Paulo Costa ($7.6k)
  • Grant Dawson ($9.3k)
  • Daniel Lacerda ($7.5k)
  • Khama Worthy ($7.4k)
  • Nicolae Negumereanu ($9.1k)
  • Marvin Vettori ($8.6k)

You know I like Costa’s finishing ability, Dawson is a massive favorite that should get the win, and Lacerda is a rising prospect who will (hopefully) deliver a lasting first impression.

To round out my UFC Vegas 41 DFS picks, I’ll also turn to Khama Worthy, Nicolae Negumereanu, and Marvin Vettori.

Vettori is a tough sell for those that don’t like to use fighters from the same bout, but he’s in the main event, where you’re potentially getting five full rounds of points.

Win or lose, Vettori is a guy who can dish out some volume at times, and will also score some takedowns. Besides, not everyone will be rostering both guys from the main event.

Worthy gives me power and KO upside, and he’s facing a guy in Jai Herbert that has not had it easy (0-2) so far in the UFC. I’m going with the underdog here (+158), but this fight is going to be close, and he feels like the better bet to get a finish.

Negumereanu is a big -212 betting favorite. He’s a balanced fighter with one loss on his ledger, and he’s up against a battle tested but regressing fighter in Isaac Villanueva.

History still tells us the 37-year old can get the finish with his fists, but he’s just 1-3 over his first four fights in the UFC, and the losses are all of the KO/TKO variety.

Betting Advice for UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori

You can insert my top UFC Vegas 41 DFS picks into lineups and make changes as needed, but I also think there are some nice spots for betting purposes.

Here are my favorite MMA bets for this weekend’s card.

  • Daniel Lacerda to Win (+134)
  • Khama Worthy to Win (+158)
  • Paulo Costa to Win by KO/TKO (+225)

There is good value on this card. It comes with some risk, but for MMA DFS I’ll take it on to access the points upside. For the betting realm, there are just some logical, clear paths to plus money.

Lacerda is an exciting prospect who could make a strong first impression, Worthy has the power to side with at +158, and Costa is a fun play to get a finish at +225.

He’s plus money just as a straight up bet in general, too, but I like going the extra mile here.

Of course, I am usually handing out daily fantasy MMA advice. It would make sense to also see what else Adam Haynes has to say about UFC Fight Night 196. To get his thoughts, check out the posts below.

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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