MLB Predictions and Best Bets – September 10, 2020

| September 9, 2020 12:47 pm PDT

Baseball slows down considerably on Thursday, with just 12 games hitting the schedule. Normally that’d be a pretty healthy slate, but with COVID-19 demanding 15-20 games some days, this calls for some relaxation.

We have fewer games to work with, but there are still plenty of fantastic spots to target some nice betting value. Before we dive in, let’s see which games are worth betting on today.

  • Phillies vs. Marlins
  • Red Sox vs. Rays
  • Orioles vs. Yankees
  • Royals vs. Indians
  • Giants vs. Padres
  • Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks

These six games stand out the most to me, which gives us about half of the day’s MLB betting schedule to fawn over. Sometimes it’s as simple as picking a winner, but some spots demand a little finer detail.

For the best of both worlds read on for Thursday’s MLB predictions and top betting picks.

Phillies vs. Marlins Predictions

  • Phillies to beat Marlins
  • Predicted total: 7.5-8

The Phillies have a winnable game on Thursday, as they face a competitive, yet still middling Miami team. This is a spot where Jake Arrieta can look better than he actually is, while Philly’s offense could tee off on Sandy Alcantara.

That said, the Under is still in play here, given the ballpark downgrade.

Red Sox vs. Rays Predictions

  • Rays to beat Red Sox
  • Predicted total: 8-8.5

The pitching isn’t amazing for this game, either, as Josh Fleming and Mike Kickham are two young pitchers these teams hope don’t get blasted.

Boston sees a big park downgrade, while the Rays hope to stay hot at home in a positive matchup.

Orioles vs. Yankees Predictions

  • Yankees to beat Orioles
  • Predicted total: 8-8.5

Gerrit Cole hopes to keep things headed in a positive direction, as he’s back home against a still weak O’s lineup. Baltimore does have some power and gets to play in the ever-volatile Yankee Stadium, but it’s hard not to side with Cole here.

Cole should help the Yanks get a much-needed win, but there is too much power on both sides of this one. I would be hammering the Over.

Royals vs. Indians Predictions

  • Indians to beat Royals
  • Predicted total: 8-8.5

Aaron Civale (3-4, 3.63 ERA) gets a nice opportunity in front of him on Thursday, as he’s at home against a Royals lineup that isn’t quite 100%.

It isn’t such a favorable matchup for Brady Singer (5.58 ERA) on the other side, which leans into a Cleveland win. There’s enough offense in this park to approach the Over relatively safely, though.

Giants vs. Padres Predictions

  • Padres to beat Giants
  • Predicted total: 7.5-8

Chris Paddack has things set up nicely for him on Thursday, as he hopes to repair a middling 4.75 ERA against a pedestrian Giants offense.

San Diego’s offense should help him out in this spot, even if they’re facing an arm that has pitched above his talent level in Trevor Cahill (2.65 ERA).

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Predictions

  • Dodgers to beat Diamondbacks
  • Predicted total: 8.5-9

Madison Bumgarner is back home against the Dodgers on Thursday, and that sets up poorly for him. L.A. is a safer team to bet on when facing righties, but MadBum (8.44 ERA) just hasn’t been a useful pitcher in 2020.

The Dodgers are backed by talented youngster Dustin May (2.88 ERA), who should be able to have his way with a weak Arizona offense.

Best MLB Bets for Thursday, September 10th

  • Phillies to Win (-108)
  • Orioles vs. Yankees Over 8.5 (-120)
  • Royals vs. Indians Over 8.5 (-105)
  • Cubs to Win (+120)

There are some really rough prices on this slate. I’d say just go with my MLB predictions above, but you’re looking at moneylines in the -170 to -210 range, if not significantly worse.

You can still score some nice value with the Phillies at -108, though. They’re on the road and their pitching isn’t elite for this matchup, but they’re facing the Marlins in a game they should win.

While we can’t issue a bunch of confident straight up wagers on this slate due to pricing, the game totals feel exploitable. Gerrit Cole and Aaron Civale hit the dirt for their respective franchises, but I think there should be enough in each of their games to get nine or more runs.

Lastly, we can aim high with the Cubs. Yes, they’re facing Sonny Gray, but they’re at home and I won’t bypass this +120 price.

If you’re ready to rock for Thursday, check out the top baseball sportsbooks to place some bets.

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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