MLB Predictions and Best Bets – April 6, 2021

| April 6, 2021 4:04 am PDT

Baseball is a fickle beast. Just when you think you’ve got the league figured out as a bettor, Baltimore refuses to lose, and the Braves can’t buy a win.

It’s also crazy early, so putting any stock in what you see for the first week or two is just a bad idea.

That said, you can’t just wildly embrace MLB’s volatile nature. You still need to attack each game (and slate) with as much logic as possible. Just keep the insanity in mind when you seek out a little value.

With that in mind, let’s take a quick peek at everyone playing on Tuesday.

  • Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
  • Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
  • Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
  • Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
  • Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
  • Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins
  • New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
  • Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
  • Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
  • Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers
  • Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
  • Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Oakland Athletics
  • Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
  • San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres

It’s a fun slate that is largely a continuation of Monday’s series, but the big one that jumps out at you is the start of a Coors Field tilt between the Rockies and D’Backs.

There should be plenty of scoring there, but there are also numerous spots strewn across Tuesday’s MLB schedule that feature potentially low-scoring affairs.

Betting on game totals is one way to approach things, but for the best bets, read on for Tuesday’s MLB picks and predictions.

Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Predictions

  • Twins to beat Tigers
  • Predicted total: 8-8.5

The Twins and Tigers continue their series, with Casey Mize hoping to look a bit better than he did last year.

Mize is a long-term elite prospect for Detroit, but he’ll have his hands full against a loaded Minnesota offense.

J.A. Happ probably has the edge in this one, but given how the Tigers have played early in the year, the margin may be slimmer than most assume.

I like the Over here and tentatively prefer the Twins if you’re picking a side.

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Predictions

  • Nationals to beat Braves
  • Predicted total: 7-7.5

I wrote about this game in yesterday’s MLB picks, but the game got PPD.

Assuming the starting pitchers remain the same, fans will see Max Scherzer and Drew Smyly face off.

Obviously, Washington has the edge on the mound, but it could always be a bit of a wash given Atlanta’s elite offense.

That offense has failed to take flight during an 0-3 start, of course. On the road against Mad Max, I’m not excited to bet on the Braves suddenly tearing it up.

I’ll take the Nats here.

Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Predictions

  • Astros to beat Angels
  • Predicted total: 7-7.5

The Astros have been red hot to get 2021 going, and they don’t seem ready to slow it down.

They do have to take on the solid Griffin Canning in a pitcher-friendly park, of course. Zack Greinke is an asset on the other side, which has this one shaping up as a bit of a wash.

Houston makes sense as the team to back here because of Greinke and a loaded offense, but everything else points to the Under being a good secondary bet.

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Predictions

  • Yankees to beat Orioles
  • Predicted total: 8-8.5

Gerrit Cole prepares to silence the O’s, who have looked rather good to start 2021. New York hasn’t been as impressive, but they’re at home and get to face Dean Kramer.

Kramer actually worked the Yankees (14 Ks in two appearances) in 2020, but I think their power and the park factor still have things leaning their way.

Cole should slice up the O’s, but he does give up some hard contact, and it’s tough to pitch at Yankee Stadium. I love the Yanks and the Over in this one. 

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Predictions

  • Reds to beat Pirates
  • Predicted total: 8-8.5

Pittsburgh sees a massive park jump at Great American Ballpark, so logic suggests they might be able to get to Wade Miley a bit.

Perhaps, but Miley usually is solid at run prevention, and the Pirates just lack the necessary power to scare you here.

They have enough righties to possibly contribute to the Over, however.

Trevor Cahill thrives on keeping the ball on the ground, but that could be tough against a powerful Reds lineup in this park. I’d lean toward the Reds and the Over here.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins Predictions

  • Marlins to beat Cardinals
  • Predicted total: 7.5-8

The park factor nudges me to the Under when the Cardinals battle the Marlins. John Gant is nothing special, but a date with Miami is hardly scary.

On the other side is Sandy Alcantara, who was terrific during Spring Training and will look to carry that momentum into this one.

Miami has a slight pitching edge and are at home, so I actually like them on Tuesday. They are the preferred bet given the respectable pitching in this park is the Under, of course.

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Predictions

  • Mets to beat Phillies
  • Predicted total: 8-8.5

New York looks to play just their second game of the year on Tuesday, and they’ll try to dismantle Chase Anderson in the deadly Citizens Bank Park.

Anderson can be solid, but he historically gives up quite a bit of contact. In this setting against a pretty loaded Mets lineup, I’m not gaga about backing him.

New York has a ground ball ace in Marcus Stroman to lean on, but he’s probably in just as much trouble here. I like the Mets, but I love the Over.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Predictions

  • Rays to beat Red Sox
  • Predicted total: 8-8.5

I liked the Rays at Fenway yesterday, and I like them again on Tuesday. I prefer them against lefties, but they should have enough righty power to get to Martin Perez.

Tyler Glasnow is fully capable of silencing Boston bats from the other side, too. I mean, he’s kind of fully capable of anything.

Usually, I’m all about the Over in a park like this, but I’d expect the Red Sox to be held in check here. I like the Rays and the Under.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Predictions

  • Cubs to beat Brewers
  • Predicted total: 7.5-8

The Brewers and Cubs continue their rivalry series at Wrigley Field on Tuesday. The pitching isn’t amazing, but Freddy Peralta does offer elite strikeout upside.

I just think this game has the makings of a total mess on both ends. Peralta can dominate, but the Cubs have a tough lineup, and he can have major issues with walks.

The Cubs should get the job done at home, but don’t be shocked if there are quite a few runs in a potential shootout in this one.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers Predictions

  • Blue Jays to beat Rangers
  • Predicted total: 9-9.5

The Jays and Rangers face off in Texas with some suspect pitching on Tuesday.

Tanner Roark is probably good enough to handle the Rangers, but Dane Dunning isn’t going to be easy to trust on the other side.

Toronto has the better lineup and the better arm, so they get the nod by a hair. I’d expect a decent amount of scoring with the “meh” pitching, though, so I also like the Over.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Predictions

  • Rockies to beat Diamondbacks
  • Predicted total: 11-11.5

Speaking of the Over, I’m not sure there is a way around it with the D’Backs and Rockies squaring off at Coors Field.

German Marquez is pretty good and fully capable of keeping Arizona in check. However, the Diamondbacks are also a bit underrated and get a massive park jump here.

It’s worth noting that he handled Arizona (2.25 ERA) in two meetings last year, but he wasn’t great (1-4, 5.68 ERA) at home. That should shock nobody, so it’s fair to assume he lands somewhere in the middle.

Luke Weaver may not have as much luck. He can miss bats, and Colorado isn’t as good as they once were, but this is just an impossible spot.

Colorado has the edge here, but I’m smashing the Over.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Oakland Athletics Predictions

  • Dodgers to beat Athletics
  • Predicted total: 7.5-8

Even Clayton Kershaw couldn’t survive Coors Field, but he gets a chance at redemption on Tuesday when he takes on the A’s.

Oakland isn’t an easy opponent, but the park situation is light years better, and it’s unlikely Kershaw is awful in two consecutive starts.

I’d expect him to slay here, while the Dodgers are obviously capable of scoring earth every time out. Chris Bassitt is no match for them.

Bet on the Dodgers and the Under here.

Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Predictions

  • White Sox to beat Mariners
  • Predicted total: 7-7.5

This may be the best pitching matchup on Tuesday, as Lucas Giolito leads his White Sox up against James Paxton and the Mariners.

Seattle might have a shot in any other spot, but Paxton has his work cut out for him against a dangerous lineup filled with righty power.

Pax can still burn offenses, and this park is friendly to pitchers, but he could be in serious trouble here.

Giolito is the better arm at this point, too, and he has the much nicer matchup.

I still like the Under, but the White Sox are the priority bet.

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Predictions

  • Padres to beat Giants
  • Predicted total: 7.5-8

Lastly, fans get an NL West clash when the Giants visit the Padres. My condolences to Aaron Sanchez, who is likely to get tattooed in this spot against a murderous San Diego lineup.

Yu Darvish got blown up in his Padres debut, but I would like to think he can bounce back at home against the Giants.

The Under is viable here due to the park and Darvish’s presence, but I’d just go after all things Padres tonight.

Best MLB Bets for Tuesday, April 6th

  • Astros to Win (-118)
  • Orioles vs. Yankees Over 8.5 (+105)
  • Rays to Win (-145)
  • Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Over 11 (-120)
  • Dodgers to Win (-175)
  • Padres to Win (-210)
  • White Sox to Win (-140)

This is a pretty big MLB betting slate, but I have to admit, I didn’t think I’d be enamored with this many bets. Regardless, I love the MLB picks listed above.

Houston is on fire to start the year, and they look like the team they were a couple of years ago. If that’s the case, they’re a steal at -118 against the Halos.

New York is a good bet, but not at -290. You can go for it, but in that stadium, I’ll just go for the Over. All things considered, setting to nine runs really isn’t a tall order.

Tampa Bay has the pitching edge, and their lineup gets a huge boost at Fenway. I love them at -145, even on the road.

If you only bet on one game total, make it the one in Coors. The pitching is solid, but few survive a visit to Colorado. I love the Over in that one, with the Rockies being a fine secondary bet.

L.A. and San Diego are great bets to get wins. Their prices are steep, but they’re not close to that -290 Yankees price. If you want safer bets, they’re a great place to start.

Lastly, I love Chicago to get the road win. Their lineup can mash southpaws, and their pitcher is as good as anyone.

You can hit up the top MLB betting sites to go with any of these MLB picks. If you need a little extra advice before you get to betting, find out how to bet on sports online.

Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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