MLB Predictions and Best Bets – April 12, 2021

| April 12, 2021 6:22 am PDT

Weekend baseball is either loads of fun or incredibly volatile. Well, it’s probably both.

Hopefully you made some money on Saturday and Sunday, but whether you did or not, I’m back to do what I can to help with Monday’s MLB picks and predictions.

First, let’s take a look at Monday’s 14-game baseball schedule.

  • Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
  • San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles
  • New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
  • Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
  • Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
  • Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
  • Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
  • Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
  • Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
  • Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals
  • Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros
  • Oakland Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants

This is a pretty fun way to get back to baseball betting.

There is an offensive showdown between the Red Sox and Twins to get the ball rolling early on Monday, while epic AL East (Yankees vs. Jays) and NL East (Phillies vs. Mets) clashes await not too long after.

Later in the day MLB fans get a rematch between the Cubs and Brewers, while the Indians and White Sox duke it out, as well.

It’s a loaded schedule, and there should be plenty of ways to profit. For game winner predictions and my favorite MLB picks, read on.

Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Predictions

  • Twins to beat Red Sox
  • Predicted total: 10-10.5

I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in this Twins pick. Boston went nuts on Sunday, but neither side has a very scary pitcher (Martin Perez vs. J.A. Happ), and both offenses are capable of blasting away.

I slightly favor Minnesota if they get Josh Donaldson back. He looked good in practice recently, so it’s possible his return comes today.

If Donaldson is in the lineup, Perez is suddenly dealing with a lot of lethal righties. Neither pitcher is safe (and my preferred bet is the Over), but the slight edge goes to the Twins at home.

San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions

  • Padres to beat Pirates
  • Predicted total: 7-7.5

The Padres got an emotional lift with recent news that slugger Fernando Tatis wouldn’t be out for the year. San Diego’s offense will suffer until he returns, but that’s a feather to stick in the ol’ cap.

In the meantime, the Padres still have enough pop to make quick work of Trevor Cahill. PNC Park can limit power potential, of course, but I still think they do some damage here.

Even if they don’t, the Padres feel like the pick with Yu Darvish on the other side. He rebounded from a weak debut to spin six innings of one-run ball in his second start, and I have to think he builds some momentum here.

San Diego stands out, but when you look at Darvish’s likely dominance and the park impact, I also love the Under.

Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Predictions

  • Mariners to beat Orioles
  • Predicted total: 8-8.5

The pitching is suspect on both sides, and the Mariners get a massive park upgrade when they visit Baltimore at Camden Yards.

The O’s have enough power to get to Justus Sheffield, but neither he nor Dean Kremer look scary in this ballpark. Seattle probably benefits greatly from the park shift, and I think they tee off here.

The Mariners look like a fine try, but the Over is the preferred bet when you consider the poor pitching and park factor. 

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Predictions

  • Yankees to beat Jays
  • Predicted total: 9-9.5

There is some fantastic pitching in this spot, as Gerrit Cole brings his nasty 1.46 ERA up against a loaded Jays offense.

He’s far from safe in this spot, but he should have the edge against Robbie Ray. The latter can miss bats, but he’s facing an endless string of powerful righties against New York.

Cole likely shreds, making all other points meaningless. However, Ray has contact and control issues. If he loads up the bases, the Yanks’ power will make him pay.

I love New York and the Over.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Predictions

  • Phillies to beat Mets
  • Predicted total: 8-8.5

Chase Anderson looks to keep things going in a somewhat tough road tilt against the rival Mets. He’s been fine to start 2021, but it’s never easy to win on the road, and New York’s loaded lineup is due to fire off at some point.

I think the Mets get it going here, but I question if it’ll be enough. Philly is in a sweet spot here, as David Peterson isn’t anyone to be afraid of, and the Phillies have a stacked roster.

Philly is where I lean if you need a winner, but keep in mind that they get a park downgrade, they’re on the road against a rival, and Anderson can be volatile.

All of that sets up a nice secondary bet in the Over.

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Predictions

  • Rays to beat Rangers
  • Predicted total: 8-8.5

Texas has flashed some nice power this year, but they’re the least surprising 3-6 team of all-time.

The Rangers can be fun, but this isn’t the park to back them in. They face an unexciting arm in Michael Wacha, and once they get past him, they have a nasty Tampa Bay bullpen to look forward to.

Texas is a big bowl of “no thanks” for me on Monday, while the park and middling offenses have me leaning toward the Under.

Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Predictions

  • Braves to beat Marlins
  • Predicted total: 7-7.5

Max Fried got lit up in his first start, but this should be a nice rebound spot for him at home. Miami are just 2-6 on the year, and they simply do not have an offense you run and hide from.

Miami does have some power to use against vulnerable lefties, but Fried is usually good with run prevention, and he handled the fish (2.70 ERA, 8 Ks) in two appearances in 2020.

Sandy Alcantara is a solid pitcher that is capable of containing the Braves, but Atlanta seems to be heating up.

The Braves aren’t really a team I want to bet against right now, but the park and pitching do keep me interested in the Under.

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Predictions

  • Cubs to beat Brewers
  • Predicted total: 8-8.5

Chicago comes to Milwaukee to battle the Brewers for the second series of the year between these rivals.

The Brewers won the first series, and will hope to play more winning baseball as they look to add to a 5-4 record.

That could be easier said than done, with star outfielder Christian Yelich getting hurt on Sunday.

Milwaukee does have a promising pitcher in Freddy Peralta on the mound, but this is a tough park to pitch it, and the Cubs have a solid lineup.

Potentially at less than full strength (Travis Shaw also got hurt), I won’t back the Brew Crew here. I like Chicago and the Over.

Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals Predictions

  • Cardinals to beat Nationals
  • Predicted total: 7-7.5

The pitchers aren’t known for this game, but we know Washington won’t have Max Scherzer or Patrick Corbin for this one.

One way or another, a watered down Nats team will be on the road in a pitcher-friendly park.

I’ll need more information to make a better call here, but early indications are that the Cards and Under look like solid plays.

Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox Predictions

  • Indians to beat White Sox
  • Predicted total: 8-8.5

Carlos Rodon pitched a gem in his 2021 debut, but I am betting the wheels fall off in this one.

He’s a talented southpaw, but he also has never really put it all together when it comes to walks and contact. Cleveland isn’t the same lineup they’ve been in recent years, but this is not an easy park to pitch it in, and the Indians lit him up last year.

There are some spots to back Rodon, but Cleveland has enough right-handed power to give him fits. That, and Tristoin McKenzie is a quality pitcher on the other side of this one.

Overall, I like Cleveland as a sneaky play, and the offensive upside leads me to the Over.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals Predictions

  • Angels to beat Royals
  • Predicted total: 8-8.5

This year’s Halos look ready to do some serious business. It’s just nine games, but L.A. is bringing out the bats en route to a nice 6-3 start.

Los Angeles should keep it going in a winnable series in Kansas City, and the first guy they face is the beatable Brady Singer.

Neither team has great pitching in this one (Alex Cobb is pitching for L.A.), but this park also isn’t amazing for putting runs on the board. That said, I just trust the Angels more.

Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Predictions

  • Astros to beat Tigers
  • Predicted total: 8-8.5

Casey Mize has looked sharp so far (2.25 ERA), but he has the daunting task of matching wits with Zack Greinke (1.38 ERA) and slowing down a stacked Houston lineup.

I actually think Mize has a fine shot at doing both, but it’s still a road start where he probably won’t get a ton of run support. That, and completely stifling the Astros just feels like a stretch.

The park and pitching should give the Under a real shot, but Houston should ultimately be a bit too much for Mize and the Tigers. 

Oakland Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions

  • Athletics to beat Diamondbacks
  • Predicted total: 9-9.5

I don’t fear the pitching in this one, so don’t be shocked if you witness a nice little shootout as Monday night wraps up.

Chris Bassitt is a decent pitcher and Madison Bumgarner was once considered elite, but I’m not enamored with either in their respective spots tonight.

Bumgarner is turning into a bit of a gas can, which could give the left-killing A’s a nice opportunity to tee off. Bassitt usually doesn’t implode too much, but he could still contribute to the Over.

I think Oakland has a shot at turning things around after a slow start, and it starts on Monday.

Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants Predictions

  • Reds to beat Giants
  • Predicted total: 7-7.5

The Reds and Giants are both 6-3. Go figure. I doubt both stick as winning clubs by the end of the year, but they’re presently getting the job done.

It’s tough to expect a lot of scoring in the home run-combative Oracle Park, while Wade Miley tends to be pretty good with run prevention.

Aaron Sanchez can get lit up at times, but the Reds are more feared against lefties, and they might not be nearly as deadly in this park.

Cincy still comes off as the better team with the scarier offense. I tentatively back the Reds, but the best play here is surely the Under.

Best MLB Bets for Monday, April 12th

  • Red Sox vs. Twins Over 9 (-121)
  • Padres to Win (-211)
  • Mariners vs. Orioles Over 9 (+100)
  • Cubs to Win (+122)
  • Indians to Win (+123)
  • Athletics (-1.5) +125
  • Reds vs. Giants Under 8.5 (-110)

There are a lot of MLB games worth betting on – and a number of appealing wagers – but the MLB picks above are my favorite for April 12th.

I’ve gone over most of them, but to summarize, I think the Red Sox vs. Twins game will be straight fire. Seattle also gets too nice of a jump at Camden Yards, and neither of these games have overly frightening pitching.

San Diego is pricey at -211, but it actually feels like a nice price with Darvish toeing the rubber. I also will snatch up the Cubs and Indians as fun underdogs.

Chicago looks healthier than Milwaukee, and they get a big park boost. They look like a great bet, while Cleveland’s righty power could give Rodon issues en route to a nice upset.

Oakland winning by two runs gets you nice dog money at +125, as well. Madison Bumgarner is not the big name he once was, and he and the D’Backs feel attackable here.

Lastly, the park and pitching should keep the total in check when the Reds and Giants face off.

Hopefully my favorite MLB bets help you on Monday. If you’re ready to dive into the action, head over to the best MLB betting sites.

Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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