Picks and Predictions for MLB Games – April 28th, 2022

| April 27, 2022 4:18 pm PDT

Following a rough showing on Opening Day, my MLB picks looked strong on Tuesday. I correctly predicted 10 of the 14 games and hit on two of my three favorite bets. Hopefully you tailed because it was a profitable day.

We’re back with Thursday’s slate on MLB action. We have 13 games on the schedule, but the sportsbooks have three games off the board. Nonetheless, ten games give us ample betting options.

Before we talk about my predictions and favorite bets, let’s examine the odds.

MLB Odds for Thursday, April 28th 

  • Padres (-113) vs. Reds (+103), O/U 8.5
  • Brewers (-165) vs. Pirates (+152), O/U 7.5
  • Orioles (+204) vs. Yankees (-225), O/U 8
  • Tigers (+134) vs. Twins (-145), O/U 7
  • Astros (-171) vs. Rangers (+157), O/U 8
  • Royals (+148) vs. White Sox (-161), O/U 7
  • Red Sox (+148) vs. Blue Jays (-161), O/U 8
  • Guardians (+148) vs. Angels (-161), O/U 8.5
  • Cubs (+164) vs. Braves (-178), O/U 8.5
  • Diamondbacks (+152) vs. Cardinals (-165), O/U 7.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals is the lone matchup that won’t feature the final game of a series. The other matchups will either be the third or fourth game of the series.

It’s a bit surprising to see the San Diego Padres as a slight favorite over the Cincinnati Reds. San Diego has been among the best teams at covering the spread, while Cincinnati has the second-worst record against the spread. Not to mention, the Reds have the worst record in baseball.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens in the Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins matchup. They had a wild game Tuesday night, ending with a walk-off error. Both teams rank bottom ten against the spread.

On Tuesday, I mentioned how the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees were among the league leaders at going under their run total. Of course, they responded with a 12-8 game.

The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers matchup could get interesting because of the run total. Texas leads the MLB with 53.3 percent of their games going over the run total. Meanwhile, only two AL teams have gone under their run total more than Houston.

The betting trends should play a factor in Thursday’s action. Now it’s time to examine my predictions for the ten games on the board.

Top MLB Predictions for April 28th

  • Padres Over Reds
  • Brewers Over Pirates
  • Orioles Over Yankees
  • Tigers Over Twins
  • Astros Over Rangers
  • White Sox Over Royals
  • Red Sox Over Blue Jays
  • Guardians Over Angels
  • Braves Over Cubs
  • Cardinals Over Diamondbacks

I would say Thursday night’s slate, but MLB action kicks off early afternoon on Thursday. The San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers should kick off the day with a victory. Freddy Peralta has struggled this season, but he should bounce back.

The Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers have a good chance to pull off an upset. Detroit would’ve won Tuesday night if not for a series of mistakes. We can only hope something like that doesn’t happen again.

I’ll talk more about the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers later, but I’m all on the Astros for their pitching. We can say the same about the Chicago White Sox.

Chicago’s offense is dealing with many offensive injuries, but they’ll have Michael Kopech on the mound. Check out his numbers in three starts.

  • 0.64 ERA
  • 1.14 WHIP
  • 5 walks
  • 15 strikeouts

He shouldn’t have an issue shutting down the Kansas City Royals offense.

The Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays was a tough matchup, but I like the Red Sox offense to lead them to victory. It’s a similar story for the St. Louis Cardinals.

I jumped around at the end, but the Cleveland Guardians and Atlanta Braves should score another victory. Cleveland let me down on Tuesday night, but they should bounce back. Atlanta has the pitching advantage in what could be a low-scoring game.

Feel free to keep an eye on the best MLB sportsbooks to monitor any betting updates. They should add three more games before Thursday morning.

Best Bets for MLB Games on 4/28/22

  • Orioles to Win (+204)
  • Astros vs. Rangers Under 8 Runs (-115)
  • Guardians to Win (+148)

I may have raised a few eyebrows taking the Baltimore Orioles over the New York Yankees, but hear me out. Baltimore took two out of three from New York earlier this season. Their offense woke up on Tuesday night, but their pitching was terrible.

That shouldn’t be an issue Thursday as Baltimore sends Bruce Zimmerman to the mound. Zimmerman has looked great, holding a 1.20 ERA with 16 strikeouts. He shut out the Yankees on April 17.

His presence is why I’m taking the Orioles to pull off the upset.

Earlier, I mentioned how the Texas Rangers have gone over their run total more than any other team. So why am I taking them to go under their run total? They’ll be facing Justin Verlander. Take a look at his 2022 numbers.

  • 1.89 ERA
  • 0.74 WHIP
  • 4 walks
  • 20 strikeouts

The 39-year-old has looked great this season. He pitched eight scoreless innings in a victory over the Seattle Mariners on April 16. Texas has a good offense, but they’ll have a tough time scoring runs against Verlander.

The Cleveland Guardians offense has only scored one run in their first two matchups with the Los Angeles Angels. That could spell trouble, but they have a great matchup with Angels starter Reid Detmers.

Detmers has a 6.57 ERA, allowing at least two runs in three starts. He struggled in his last start against an Orioles team that has scored the fewest runs in the AL.

Cleveland’s offense looked good before this series. A big offensive performance would help them end their skid.

Thursday’s action starts at 12:35 p.m. ET. Head over to SportsBetting.ag to place your bets.

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Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with GamblingSites.com since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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