Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls – NBA, April 30, 2021

By Dean McHugh in NBA
| April 30, 2021 9:39 am PDT

Milwaukee pretty much has the Divisional Championship wrapped up. With little chance of catching the Nets at the top of the Eastern Conference, their main focus will be fine-tuning their game as we head into the business end of the season.

For the Bulls, it’s simple; they want to try and catch the Wizards and claim the final pre-playoff spot in the east. Perhaps the Bulls have more at stake in this one, but a free-flowing Bucks team with no pressure on them can be a dangerous animal.

They also have a fantastic record against the Bulls to uphold, having won the previous 13 meetings between them. The most recent of those wins was at the turn of the year when they emphasized their dominance of this fixture by putting on a clinic and beating the Bulls by 30-points.

The Bucks were unstoppable that night, especially from three-point range where they shot at 48% – a better success rate than the Bulls had from close range. The Bucks have also won on their last seven visits to Chicago, meaning it could be a tough night for the Bulls.

As you might have expected for such a one-sided record, the Bucks have averaged an enormous 15-points more than the Bulls over the previous ten matchups between them. They have dominated almost every department against them in these games, so the Bulls will have to pull out all of the stops if they are to claim the win.

Here are the game odds, my team analysis, and betting prediction.

Bucks vs. Bulls Odds

Bucks -3.5-110
Bulls +3.5-110
Bucks To Win-156
Bulls To Win+160
Over 220.5 Points-110
Under 220.5 Points-110

There is a load of money coming for the Bulls in this one, presumably because they have more to play for tonight. The betting has changed quite a bit since it opened as backers can’t seem to decide who they like here.

The Bucks have a perfect record of 9-0 against teams in their Division. Also, all three of their away fixtures against teams in the Division have gone under the betting total.

Backing the Bucks?

The Bucks have lost two of their last three games, with their most recent defeats coming against the hapless Rockets. Their sole win during those games came against the Hornets when they put in a solid defensive display to win 104-114.

Their form on the road has been excellent this season, and they have only dropped one more game than the top-ranked away team, the Brooklyn Nets. However, their form on the road hasn’t been great as of late and will concern the Bucks.

Here are the latest betting trends for Milwaukee:

Bet Type Trend
ATS They have won eight of their last 11 matches against the Bulls.
Total Five of their previous seven games on the road have gone under the betting total.
ATS Milwaukee has won on all of their last eight visits to Chicago.
ATS The Bucks have only lost one of their previous six matches against Eastern Conference opposition.
SU They have won their last 11 games in a row against teams in the Central Division.
SU Milwaukee is 13-7 in their previous 20 matches they have entered as the betting favorite.

All of the above statistics point towards a Bucks win tonight.

The Bucks has the number one offense in the NBA this season that has averaged 119-points per game. This is mainly due to their precise shooting, which stands at 48% from the field goal range and 39% from deep.

This astounding attack is led by Bucks big man Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is battling to become the league’s MVP this season. However, recently his chances of doing that were done when he limped out of the game against the Rockets after only a minute on the clock. Many thought it was stupid of the Bucks to risk their star asset as he carried an injury before the game. However, Jrue Holiday picked up the slack in Gianni’s absence, and he put in a monster display against the Rockets. But not even his efforts could lift Milwaukee over Houston.

Their defense has been below par, and they have struggled against teams that can shoot well from a distance as they tend to sit off teams to protect the basket.

However, this does help their defensive rebounding game. They’ve made the most defensive rebounds in the league this season; therefore, their ploy is working.

To play the style of basketball they play, you have to have discipline, and the Bucks have that in abundance.

It remains to be seen whether Giannis will feature tonight. He will want to play to aid his pursuit of another MVP title, but you have to feel it makes more sense for the Bucks to rest him tonight. Toupane is also listed as questionable to play this evening.

Backing the Bulls?

The Bulls have been very hit and miss as of late as they have alternated wins and losses in their previous six matches. Each time they lost during that run, it is clear the reason was down to the low scores they posted in those games. Although, in truth, the scores posted in the wins haven’t been much better either. Over their previous seven games, the highest score the Bulls have reached is 110-points. You feel they will need much more tonight if they are to get close to the number one attack in the league.

Chicago has lacked at home this season as they have one of the worst home records in the Eastern Conference. However, they have won their previous two home fixtures against the Cavaliers and the Hornets. On both occasions, they displayed superb defensive qualities in reducing their opponents to scores of 96 and 91.

Here are the latest betting trends for Chicago:

Bet Type Trend
ATS Chicago is 4-8 in their previous 12 matches.
SU They have only won four of their last 12 games.
Total Six of their previous eight matches against the Bucks have gone under the betting total.
Total Only two of their last 11 home games have failed to go under the points total.
Total The total has gone under in five of their previous six matches against teams in the Central Division.
SU They have lost their last nine games played on a Friday.
SU The Bulls have only won three of the last 15 matches they have entered as the underdogs.

These trends point towards a low-scoring but perhaps heavy defeat for Chicago tonight.

With so many games going under the points total and so many low scores posted recently, it will be no surprise to see the Bulls have a poor offense this season that has only averaged 111-points per game.

Their attack can be highly creative and often erratic as they make a high number of assists at the cost of a load of turnovers. Plus, their attack has been even worse at home as they are averaging two points fewer per game.

Their defense is marginally better than their offense; ranked 18th in the league for defense, and their offense is ranked 19th.

They try to play a high pressing game, and to a certain degree, it does work. However, they tend to get caught out behind far too often, and they have to get the balance right. It also means they don’t make many blocks either.

One area they certainly need to improve is making more steals. This is even more crucial given they make a high number of turnovers and therefore spend a lot of the game without the ball.

Nikola Vucevic’s trade to the Bulls probably hasn’t worked out quite as well as they thought it would. Although it is still far too early to judge the move, he hasn’t had the impact Bulls fans would have hoped for. However, it’s coming towards the end of the season, maybe now is the best time to make a judgment.

Vucevic has been listed as probable to play tonight as he is carrying a shoulder injury at present which certainly hasn’t helped him. They are also without LaVine and Brown this evening.

Top Bucks vs. Bulls Pick

As you all know, I am undoubtedly a stat man, and as such, I can’t turn my back on that this evening. The Bulls don’t like playing against the Bucks! All the money is coming for the Bulls as they have more to play for. On top of that, the Bucks could be missing their star player.

However, for me, the Bulls have too many weaknesses right now, and they haven’t dealt with the added pressure of their new signing very well. Therefore, why would they deal with the pressure they have on their shoulders to win this one and close the gap on the Wizards? The Bucks are at their best when they are playing free-flowing basketball, and that is what I expect to see tonight.

Take the Bucks to win this one straight up, as the odds are good.

  • Bucks To Win



Back to top