Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies – MLB, June 17, 2021

| June 17, 2021 3:13 am PDT

The Milwaukee Brewers ran cold at home against the Cincinnati Reds but will hope their fortunes change on the road against the Rockies.

Coors Field usually is kind to teams looking for an offensive jolt, but sports bettors should certainly pay mind to the quality pitching matchup on display here.

Milwaukee heads into a hitter’s paradise with Brandon Woodruff toeing the rubber, while German Marquez will battle for Colorado on the other side. The quality pitching could make this a tougher game to bet on than some would expect.

To help you figure out the best way to attack it, join me for Thursday’s Brewers vs. Rockies betting pick and prediction.

Brewers vs. Rockies Latest Odds

Brewers to Win-161
Rockies to Win+148
Over 10+100
Under 10-120

The Brewers are the favorites at the best MLB betting sites, largely because of Brandon Woodruff’s presence and the park boost.

Woodruff had dazzled for much of 2021 and will enter this game with a 5-2 record and a sparkling 1.52 ERA. His Brewers have dropped three in a row but are a solid 18-12 on the road. They are easily regarded as the better team in this matchup.

Colorado pushes perhaps their best arm in Marquez forward, and he does get a good strikeout matchup against a usually punchless Brew Crew.

The Rockies have been atrocious on the road, but they’ve actually been tough to beat (22-14) at home.

The matchup still leans toward the Brewers, and the value isn’t terrible. The game total is what immediately stands out, of course, as this park generates tons of offense, and 10 runs is a low starting point.

Bettors may want to hammer the Over as soon as possible and never look back, but this game still deserves a closer look.

Game Preview for Brewers vs. Rockies

Woodruff gets a major park downgrade, but he’s somehow been way better on the road this year. He’s had six road starts, and he’s piled up 48 Ks with a .092 opposing OBA and a 0.67 ERA.

That’s all downright filthy, but it’s hard to imagine Woodruff keeping those numbers so tight in such a difficult park. For what it’s worth, Blake Snell is one of the more talented arms in the league, and he just got tattooed in this same park yesterday.

Still, Woodruff doesn’t really have any weak points. He whiffs at an elite rate (31.8%), and he doesn’t walk anyone. Considering the Rockies typically do their best work against southpaws, this just looks like a bad matchup for them.

Marquez is better than his numbers show. His 4.60 ERA isn’t great, and he’s just 4-6, but he has 80 strikeouts (27th in the majors), and he has to pitch half of his games in a terrible park for pitchers.

Oddly enough, he’s been at his best at Coors. Marquez owns a respectable 3.99 ERA in this park and has only allowed two home runs here. Against a K-happy Brewers lineup, he’s actually in a solid spot.

Overall, this is a closer matchup than the odds suggest, and the pitching is pretty good. The question, of course, is if Coors will wreck the party.

Brewers vs. Rockies Pick for June 17

I respect Woodruff a ton, and Marquez is better than anyone ever cares to admit. Colorado’s lineup also isn’t that scary, and despite all of their winning, one could argue Milwaukee’s is even less daunting.

All of that is true. Milwaukee does stand out as a good bet here if you just look at the pitching, splits, and team talent. However, if we’re talking pure value, the Over is a smash hit here.

Woodruff will get his, but the park won’t do him any favors. Ditto for Marquez, as Milwaukee will see a big park upgrade here. Ultimately, 10 runs feels too light for this park—Hammer the Over.

Pick
  • Over 10
    +100
Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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