Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds – MLB, September 21, 2020

By Admir Aljic in MLB
| September 21, 2020 12:47 am PDT

The ultimate week of the 2020 MLB regular season is ahead of us, and the race for the playoff spots in the National League is complete madness. Monday brings a high-stake NL Central showdown at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, so here’s the best Brewers vs. Reds betting pick along with the latest odds.

The 26-26 Brewers and 27-27 Reds enter this three-game series tied for the third spot in the NL Central, and the second-placed Cardinals were only half a game ahead on Sunday (and they were losing 1-0 in Pittsburgh at the end of the fifth).

Brewers vs. Reds Odds

BET ODDS
Brewers +1.5 -180
Reds -1.5 +160
Brewers to Win +113
Reds to Win -123
Over 8.0 +105
Under 8.0 -125

Both Milwaukee and Cincinnati went 4-1 over their last five games. The Reds have won seven of their previous eight contests overall; they are playing at home, so the bookies favor them slightly over the Brewers.

These two foes played seven games at Miller Park in Milwaukee this season, and the Reds won four times. The under is 4-3 in that stretch, and the bookies don’t expect to see a firecracker Monday, setting the line at 8.0 runs with the over at +105 odds.

Brewers vs. Reds Preview

The Brewers went bonkers a couple of times this month, scoring 19 runs against Detroit and 18 against St. Louis. They’ve tallied 25 runs over the last four outings, but the Brewers are averaging only 4.39 runs per contest (21st in the majors).

The Reds haven’t impressed either, averaging 3.91 runs per game (28th). Over their previous five showings, the Reds scored 19 runs in total.

Luis Castillo will toe the slab for the Reds in the opening contest of this series. After a shaky start of the season, the righty has improved over the last few weeks and will be searching for his fourth straight win on Monday. Castillo is 3-5 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 2020, and he’s 3-5 with a 3.70 ERA in 10 career starts against Milwaukee.

He’ll get the Brewers for the second time in 2020. Back in August, Castillo was charged with a loss in the Reds’ 3-2 defeat at Milwaukee. He yielded three runs (one earned) on five hits and four walks while striking out nine through six innings.

Brandon Woodruff will take the hill for the Brewers, and the righty tossed six frames in that 3-2 win over Cincy, allowing a couple of runs on four hits and a walk while punching out eight.

Woodruff is 2-4 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 11 starts this term, while he’s 3-2 with a 4.25 ERA in five starts and a couple of relief outings against the Reds in his career.

Brewers vs. Reds Pick 

This should be a very tight contest with so much on the table for both sides, so I would avoid taking the side bet. Wagering on the under seems like the best option, as both teams have been struggling offensively for most of the season.

Furthermore, these two foes know each other very well, so I expect both starters to do a solid job on the mound. Woodruff is probably the Brewers’ top ace, while Castillo has been excellent over his previous three starts.

Pick
  • Under 8.0 runs
    -125

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