Michelle Waterson vs. Marina Rodriguez – UFC Vegas 26

| May 5, 2021 5:52 am PDT

A women’s flyweight clash between Michelle Waterson and Marina Rodriguez headlines the main event of UFC on ESPN: Waterson vs. Rodriguez at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas this Saturday, May 8.

I’ll be providing you with the latest odds for Waterson vs. Rodriguez, as well as the best bets you can place on the fight below.

Fight fans are not exactly delighted with this main event. But who can blame them, considering the initial bill-topper was set to be contested between T.J. Dillashaw and Cory Sandhagen? Dillashaw, who returns to the promotion after a two-year suspension, pulled out due to an eye injury sustained in his training camp.

But we make do with what we have, right? And let’s be honest, there is money to be made betting on Michelle Waterson vs. Marina Rodriguez, so it’s not all tears and slack posture.

Alongside the odds and bets for the fight, I’ll also provide my predictions and betting pick for Waterson vs. Rodriguez in this betting preview. Stick with me for a little analysis of the fight, too.

Waterson vs. Rodriguez – Who Wins?

  • Marina Rodriguez by Decision

I’m backing Rodriguez to earn the win over the “Karate Hottie” on the scorecards.

You’ll find out the reasons behind my pick for Waterson vs. Rodriguez a little later, as well as a bit of detail surrounding my predictions for the fight. These should help you choose the right bets for the UFC this Saturday and, fingers crossed, make you some nice pocket change in the process.

Let’s see what the bookies’ odds for Waterson vs. Rodriguez look like.

Odds for Waterson vs. Rodriguez

Michelle Waterson to Win+160
Marina Rodriguez to Win-200

If you’re betting on Waterson to beat Rodriguez, I have some good news for you.

Waterson’s odds to win the fight are +160 with BetUS, making her the dog in this one. Unfortunately, I don’t see a lot of value in this price. She is not a great shout for a bet on the moneyline, but I’ll be looking through some of the other top bets for Waterson vs. Rodriguez in the next section, so stay with me for those.

Rodriguez’s odds to beat Waterson are less attractive. For the straight-up win, at least.

Still, there is reason to believe that the Brazilian has more to her in this fight than her opponent, with the size difference possibly the greatest advantage of them all. And if you’re looking to keep things safe, it just might be the best bet for the night.

Best Bets for Waterson vs. Rodriguez

Rodriguez to Win-200
Rodriguez to Win by Decision+110

I don’t see any point in getting confused here and running the risk of deviating from what should work on the night. 

So, I’ll keep things simple with two bets. First, a bet on Rodriguez to beat Waterson should do the trick. Given that the fight is set to be contested at flyweight, or ten pounds above both ladies’ usual 115-pound threshold, this could look like good value after the contest.

Rodriguez comes in at 5’7″ with a 67″ reach. Waterson, at 5’3″ and with a 62″ reach, is clearly at a considerable disadvantage. Moving up in weight won’t be as difficult, making the task even tougher for Waterson.

Although I’m tempted to bet on Rodriguez to beat Waterson by KO/TKO, I will stick with my initial prediction of a win on the cards. She can live on the feet with her smaller opponent, despite having never gone five rounds before.

Why Rodriguez Beats Waterson

Marina Rodriguez holds the cards in this fight.

At 125-pounds, her advantages should be even clearer. While size doesn’t always dictate the winner of a fight, it certainly helps. This is especially true when the two fighters involved possess similar levels of skill.

I would go as far as to say that Rodriguez is the better fighter. Her only major weakness seems to be dealing with proficient grapplers, which Waterson is not. Of course, the American is an excellent striker, but he will find it very difficult to find the space and time to control the fight against a bigger and rangier fighter.

Expect Rodriguez to close Waterson down and bully her in the clinch quickly. As the bout progresses, her accuracy will improve, and she will coast to a unanimous decision on the cards.

Where to Bet on Waterson vs. Rodriguez

So, there go my predictions and pick for Michelle Waterson vs. Marina Rodriguez nailed to the notice board.

I’m confident we’ll see the Brazilian walk away with the win with the nod from all three judges. She will simply be too much for the Karate Hottie to handle on the night.

If you’re looking to wager on Waterson vs. Rodriguez, you can do so via our recommended sites.

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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