Michelle Waterson vs. Angela Hill Betting Preview – UFC Fight Night, September 12, 2020

| September 9, 2020 8:35 am PDT

The bookies have made Angela Hill a betting favorite over Michelle Waterson for their key headline bout this Saturday, September 12. The fight goes down at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Waterson enters the fight looking to get back in the winning column, having dropped decision losses to former strawweight champions Carla Esparza and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Her last win came against Karolina Kowalkiewicz in March 2019, in a fight that many have claimed should have gone the other way.

Hill, on the other hand, is coming off a chin-scratching loss to Claudia Gadelha in May. That controversial loss snapped a three-fight win streak for “Overkill,” but her impressive form has not gone unnoticed.

I’m breaking this one down for you today with odds, best bets, and analysis thrown in. I’m going to make my pick for Waterson vs. Hill straight out of the gate before I walk you through the other important bits to know when betting on this fight.

Let’s go!

Waterson vs. Hill – Who Wins?

  • Angela Hill by Decision

I like Hill’s chances in this fight and believe she has what it takes to beat Waterson on the judges’ scorecards.

Following that split decision loss to Claudia Gadelha in May, expect Hill to be fired up for this one. A win here could push her closer to a top-five slot, and that’s the immediate aim for the 35-year-old.

I’ll give you my reasons for backing Hill a little later. First, let’s check out the odds for this fight.

Latest Waterson vs. Hill Odds

Angela Hill to Win-135
Michelle Waterson to Win+105

I think there will be a few heads that will turn at these odds. But I am not one of them.

Sure, I would not have been shocked to see Waterson enter this fight as the favorite to beat Hill. But the line is fairly close. As it should be.

Hill’s odds of -135 have come in from the -170 mark over the past few days. While she is a former Invicta strawweight champ, there is still the notion that “Overkill” is not on the same level as Waterson. But I believe she has probably hit the best run of form of her career over the past year or so.

This fight marks the second time in six fights that the likable Hill has been a minus money favorite. The only other time she has opened as a dog in that time frame was against Loma Lookboonmee in February. Hill would go on to win that one by decision.

Waterson is +105, which means that she enters as a minus money favorite for the third time in a row. But considering her last opponents were Carla Esparza and Joanna Jedrzejczyk, that is not majorly surprising.

I have no doubt that the “Karate Hottie” will be happy to enter this fight as the underdog, especially on account of losing both of her last fights.

So, with all that in mind, let’s move on to the best bets to place on Waterson vs. Hill.

Top Waterson vs. Hill Bets to Make

My top bets for Waterson vs. Hill are in. I’ve decided to go for a total of four wagers, so feel free to pick from any of them that you like the look of.

This one is a very hard fight to call, so there will be many bettors who will find themselves umming and ahhing about who to pick.

You don’t have to choose all of these bets. As obvious as it might sound, you don’t have to choose any of them. But these are the best bets to go for, in my opinion.

Hill to Win

I’m backing Hill to get the job done. Despite her contentious loss to Claudia Gadelha, I think she is the fighter with the momentum behind her.

You can odds of -135 on Hill to beat Waterson, and I don’t see anything wrong with that price at all. I expect them to close even shorter, so it might be a good idea to hold off if you want to avail of a better price.

The closing range for Hill should settle between -130 and -115, depending on the sportsbook or sportsbooks for UFC bets that you opt to wager with.

Hill to Win by Decision

The Waterson vs. Hill props have not yet been released as I am writing this, but you can expect them to hit the market a few days before the fight.

If you are not fussed on the moneyline odds, you might be interested in looking at those. If that is the case, I’d back Hill to win by decision. I don’t see her winning by stoppage on the night, even though I wouldn’t rule it out.

You will get slightly better odds for this bet.

Waterson to Win

If you’re looking to take Waterson on the moneyline, her current odds are decent.

The 34-year-old will have her fair share of fight week backers. The line is already moving fast in her favor, on account of her higher profile and larger reputation among casual to part-time bettors.

Waterson is currently bringing money in at +105, and she will likely close no higher than +120.

Waterson to Win by Submission

The biggest money you will get from any of these bets is to take Waterson by submission.

Despite her grading as a BJJ purple belt under Rafael Freitas, Waterson’s submission game is still considered as dangerous.

She has three subs, which all came in a three-year period between 2013 and 2016. The last opponent she forced to tap was Paige VanZant in what was a very popular fight, for obvious reasons…

In her next fight, Waterson was on the end of a submission loss to former UFC strawweight champion Rose Namajunas. But since then, she has not been involved in a fight that has been ended inside the distance.

Why Hill Beats Waterson

As I said earlier, this will be a close fight — partly because it’s tough to really say what version of Waterson will turn up.

If it is the one that we witnessed in her last few fights, Hill wins this one. Not only is “Overkill” the hungrier fighter, but she seems to have really evolved of late, which is in direct contrast to Waterson’s decline.

Is decline the right word to use here? Or would it be better to substitute it with something else? Perhaps I could lean towards a more diplomatic way of summing things up for the 34-year-old —  she seems to have lost her drive to fight.

When the going gets tough inside that cage on Saturday, who do you think will rise to the challenge? Will it be Hill, who saw what should have been the most important victory of her career snatched from her in May? Or Waterson, who doesn’t seem to have the same spark anymore?

That question answers itself, right? But if we remove the psychological aspect — and instead focus on the technical differences between this pair — who comes out on top?

I don’t think there is going to be a lot of difference between the two. Sure, Waterson is a better technical striker, but if she can’t find the space and time to fire off her shots, how long will it be before frustration sets in and she gives up?

Hill won’t want to feel “robbed” again. Expect her to come into this one on fire.

How Hill Beats Waterson

Angela Hill’s path to the UFC was a little unique. Basically, she started a Muay Thai class to stay in shape and ended up taking her first fight at 25.

Hill has demonstrated a lot of improvement since turning pro in the MMA game in 2014. Over the past six years, she has upped her striking, but perhaps more importantly, has also worked on her takedowns and takedown defense.

The challenge for Hill here is to deal with Waterson’s better striking. To shut her down and make life as difficult as possible for her opponent. If she allows her the space to strike from range, she will be in trouble. So, this performance is going to require a lot of energy, heart, and dogged determination.

Those qualities might not sound like good enough reasons to back Hill in this fight. But that’s not all she has. She is a solid all-round fighter who should be sitting on a win over #6 ranked Claudia Gadelha.

Interestingly, Waterson earned a controversial split decision over Karolina Kowalkiewicz to mark her last win. She should be 2-3 from her last five while Hill’s record ought to read 3-2.

There is not a great difference between these two fighters in terms of skill. But when comparing heart and hunger? Unless Waterson enters this fight like a crazy banshee, Hill takes it here.

I see this going to decision, with the favorite (Hill) getting the nod from all three judges.

My prediction is Hill by unanimous decision.

More UFC Fights to Bet On in September

Angela Hill beats Michelle Waterson, according to yours truly, and I don’t think I’ll be the only one making that prediction for Saturday night’s main event.

This fight has taken a bit of flak from some quarters, as it’s not really what we have come to expect from a UFC main event. To those folks who think it’s not up to par, I say this — enjoy it, because we are going to have some insane headline bouts over the next few weeks.

The pick of them all in September is, of course, Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa for the UFC middleweight title. Both men are unbeaten. Both are just ridiculously talented, in their own ways. It will be WAR.

With that in mind, I’ve put together a comprehensive guide for betting on UFC 253. Head over to that page for the latest odds and bets for Izzy vs. Costa, Reyes vs. Blachowicz, and much more.

With that, I am out. Enjoy the fights!

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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