Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees – MLB, September 26, 2020

It is a battle of playoff teams with very little to play for when the Miami Marlins take on the New York Yankees. Miami (30-28) is locked into the second position in the NL East and are winners of their last two games. However, they are just 5-5 in their last 10 and would like to get a little momentum going heading into the playoffs.

New York (32-26) is also locked into the second position in their division, the AL East. New York is looking to regain their momentum, as they have dropped five of their last six games since there nine-game win streak ended. That is not the kind of situation a team likes to find itself in just three days from the playoffs beginning, even a veteran team like the Yankees.

New York is clearly the favorite because of the starting pitching matchup. Putting in the $195 to receive $100 does not seem like a smart play, but the Yankees at -1.5 paying in $105 might be a smart pick. The pitching matchup should be good enough to support this kind of investment.

Pay special attention to the total as well. Both teams have starters going who have not been particularly good the season. The 9.5 runs is probably on the low side.

Miami starts left-hander Trevor Rogers who is 1-2 with a 6.84 ERA in six starts. About the only thing Rogers has going for him is that he has never faced the Yankees before. The left-hander has been lit up this month, giving up 17 earned runs in 16 innings, including five homeruns. It is true that he has not given up any homers in his last two starts, but he has not made it out of the fourth inning in any of his last three outings.

New York starts right-hander Deivi Garcia. He is 2-2 with a 4.88 ERA in five starts this season. Garcia has also had a disastrous September, giving up 15 earned runs in 21.2 innings. He has given up six homers this month, including two in each of his last two starts.

Neither team can count on their starter to provide six outstanding innings, as both have been rocked this month. The difference will be who can take advantage of the other starter’s woes. It appears that New York is in the better position to be able to do this. The Yankees have 91 homers this season, fourth-most in baseball. They have also scored the fourth most number of runs at 304.

Miami is 19^th in baseball in run scored at 254 runs, an average of a little over four runs per game. The big discrepancy in this game is in home runs, as Miami has hit just 58 this season.

This game will likely see both starters knocked out by the fourth inning. That leads to a battle of bullpens where the Yankees have the decided advantage. The bullpen has a 4.59 ERA for New York, while the Marlins are at 5.34.

There should be some serious runs scored in this game. Do not be surprised if there are as many as 12 or 13, making the total set at 9.5 seem almost laughable. I look for the Yankees to score early and role in this contest. Take New York to win, 8-5.