Mexico vs. Canada – 2021 CONCACAF Gold Cup Semifinal

| July 28, 2021 6:37 am PDT

Surprise, surprise – Mexico is on the verge of reaching another CONCACAF Gold Cup final!

If the defending champions can overcome Canada at NRG Stadium on Thursday, July 29, they will book their place in the Gold Cup showpiece for the seventh time since 2003.

On the flip side, the Canadians haven’t featured in a final since 2000. Still, they have produced a series of impressive performances to reach this stage and will surely be confident of causing the 11-time winners some problems.

Before we go any further, let’s check out the Mexico vs. Canada odds.

Mexico to Win1.52
The Draw4.00
Canada to Win6.00
Both Teams to Score2.00
Over 2.5 Goals1.95
Under 2.5 Goals1.76

As you would expect, Mexico (1.52) is the bookmakers’ clear favorite to win on Thursday. I mean, the reigning champs dispatched Honduras with ease in the previous round and have yet to concede a goal this summer.

Although Canada (6.00) is the obvious underdog here, you would be foolish to write them off altogether. After seeing off Costa Rica in the quarterfinals, the Canucks could frustrate Mexicans.

In this betting preview, I analyze the teams, give my score prediction for Mexico vs. Canada, and share my best bet for Thursday’s semifinal showdown.

Mexico Should Come Out on Top

When Mexico was held to a goalless draw by Trinidad and Tobago on Matchday 1, the entire CONCACAF region was stunned. Since then, however, El Tri has been unstoppable.

Tata Martino’s men crushed Guatemala 3-0 in their next game before edging out El Salvador 1-0. After winning Group A, they turned up the heat in the quarterfinals.

The defending champions enjoyed 66% possession and racked up 15 shots against Honduras, blowing their quarterfinal opponent away with three goals in a devastating 12-minute period.

Rogelio Funes Mori added to his brace against Guatemala by opening the scoring last time out, taking his Gold Cup tally to three goals in four outings. But it’s the Mexicans’ displays at the other end of the pitch that have impressed the most.

Martino’s men have yet to concede a single goal in the tournament, adding to their three consecutive shutouts in the lead-up to the Gold Cup. Will Canada be able to find a way through?

Will Defensive Frailties Cost Canada?

Canada headed into the Gold Cup on a six-game winning streak in all competitions and extended that run to eight games with back-to-back 4-1 victories over Martinique and Haiti.

Although they suffered a 1-0 loss to the USA on Matchday 3, the Canucks bounced straight back and beat Costa Rica 2-0 in the quarterfinals – underlining their new-found strength.

Even without star striker Jonathan David, the Canadians have been able to find the back of the net with ease this summer. Stephen Eustaquio and Cyle Larin have both bagged three goals in three appearances, while Junior Hoilett has notched two goals and two assists.

Having conceded in all three of their group games, though, John Herdman’s men clearly have defensive issues.

Considering they were unable to prevent CONCACAF minnows like Martinique and Haiti from scoring, they will almost certainly struggle to keep out the free-scoring Mexicans.

Score Prediction for Mexico vs. Canada

The Canadians have given a good account of themselves this summer, but their Gold Cup journey is likely to come to an end on Thursday. Unfortunately, they have been drawn against the kings of the CONCACAF region.

I can see Canada scoring, but Mexico shouldn’t struggle to outscore Herdman’s side. With that in mind, my score prediction for Mexico vs. Canada is a 3-1 win in favor of El Tri.

My Mexico vs. Canada Betting Pick

  • Over 2.5 Goals

Although odds of 1.52 for the Mexico win are pretty attractive, my best bet for Mexico vs. Canada concerns the goal-based markets. In my eyes, backing over 2.5 goals makes perfect sense.

The Mexicans have scored three goals in two of their last three games, while the Canadians’ four Gold Cup matches have produced a combined total of 13 goals (3.25 goals per game).

Ben Morris
Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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