Metz vs. Lorient – Ligue 1, October 4, 2020

Metz and Lorient are locked on four points just above the relegation zone as the two sides prepare to face off at Stade Saint-Symphorien on Sunday, October 4.

Both teams have lost three of their opening five games this season, so it’s fair to say that neither side will be happy with their start to the 2020/21 Ligue 1 campaign.

Who will pick up their second win of the season this weekend? Keep reading to see my Metz vs. Lorient prediction and betting pick.

10bet seems to think the home side has the upper hand in this fixture. After losing their opening three games, Metz (2.20) heads into this clash on a two-game unbeaten run, so it could be argued that the momentum is with the Maroons.

Lorient (3.20) ended a run of three straight defeats by securing a draw last time out, but the Ligue 1 newcomer has been conceding a lot of goals in the early stages of the campaign.

At first glance, the price for the draw (3.25) stands out to me. Let’s assess both teams’ prospects.

Metz has to be the unluckiest team in Ligue 1 this term. Not only have Vicent Hognon’s men been handed a seriously tricky fixture list, but they also lost each of their first three games by a single goal, with Lille and PSG both scoring last-gasp winners.

The Maroons dominated against Monaco on Matchday 1 but failed to make their dominance count. They then lost to an 88^th-minute Luiz Araujo goal against Lille, before Julian Draxler’s 93^rd-minute strike saw Metz agonizingly miss out on taking a point from the defending champions.

However, Metz’s persistence finally paid off on Matchday 4. An Ibrahima Niane double guided Hognon’s side to a 2-1 victory over Reims. Niane must have thought he’d scored the winner against Marseille last weekend, but the team conceded yet another late goal, this time in the 95^th minute!

I’m sure we can all agree that Metz has been extremely unfortunate so far this season. But having taken four points from their previous two outings, there is a sense the Maroons are heading in the right direction.

Lorient kicked off their comeback campaign with an impressive 3-1 win over Strasbourg, but the newly promoted side was soon reminded just how tough Ligue 1 can be.

Three straight defeats to St-Etienne, Lens, and Brest saw the club plummet down the standings, although a draw with Lyon last weekend put an end to their losing streak. Christophe Pelissier’s men gave a very good account of themselves against last season’s Champions League finalist.

Scoring goals hasn’t been a problem for Lorient. In fact, only four teams in the division have netted more. But the Merlucciidaes have the second-worst defensive record in Ligue 1 at the moment, and that is a cause for concern.

Lorient may have ended their losing streak against Lyon last time out, but it is difficult to ignore the team’s defensive issues. The newly promoted side is yet to keep a clean sheet this term and has conceded over 2.5 goals on two separate occasions.

Metz started poorly but was also very unlucky in their first three games. However, following a victory over Reims and a draw with Marseille, it feels like the Maroons have finally found their feet this season.

I’m backing the home side to extend their unbeaten run to three games with a win on Sunday.