Melbourne Victory vs. Western United Prediction – A-League (Saturday, May 21, 2022)

| May 19, 2022 4:21 am PDT

Melbourne Victory carries a 1-0 advantage into the second leg of their A-League semi-final against Western United on Saturday, May 21. Can the Boys in Blue complete the job on home soil? Or will John Aloisi’s team upset the odds?

After breaking down the latest odds, I will look back at the first leg before analyzing both sides. I will then share my Melbourne Victory vs. Western United prediction, along with a free betting pick for the second leg.

Melbourne Victory vs. Western United Odds

Melbourne Victory to Win1.77
The Draw3.75
Western United to Win4.00
Over 2.5 Goals1.75
Under 2.5 Goals1.95

Betway views Melbourne Victory (1.77) as the heavy favorite to win the second leg. Western United (4.00) heads into Saturday’s showdown as the clear outsider, while the price for the draw (3.75) is also notably high.

I have also decided to include a couple of goal-based wagers for you to consider. Since Victory and Western have the best defensive records in the A-League this season, this match could be a low-scoring affair.

What Happened in the First Leg?

As expected, the first leg was a close-fought encounter. Melbourne Victory (57%) enjoyed the majority of possession on Tuesday, but Western United (43%) saw plenty of the ball.

The only goal of the game came on 74 minutes, with Jake Brimmer scoring a spectacular half-volley from outside the penalty area. Funnily enough, Brimmer’s strike proved to be Victory’s only shot on target.
Meanwhile, Western racked up eight shots – two of which were on target. Despite the best efforts of top scorer Aleksandar Prijovic, Western failed to find a way past Victory’s resolute backline.

Melbourne Victory Analysis and Team News

Tony Popovic’s men extended their unbeaten streak to 16 games with Tuesday’s win. Having picked up ten wins and six draws since their last loss, they will be brimming with belief ahead of the second leg.

Not only have the Boys in Blue won five of their last six A-League outings, but they have also won eight of their previous ten. Of all the semi-finalists, they are undoubtedly the in-form team.

It is also worth pointing out that Victory boasts the best defensive record in the A-League this season. Popovic’s men have conceded a measly 25 goals in 27 games, highlighting their strength at the back.

At the opposite end of the field, Brimmer has scored four goals in his last five appearances. Having bagged five goals and four assists across his previous ten A-League games, the midfielder is Victory’s key man right now.

The Boys in Blue won four championships in 12 years between 2007 and 2018. If they carry on the way they’re going, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they added a fifth title to their collection in 2022.

Western United Analysis and Team News

It wouldn’t be unfair to say that Western United heads into the second leg in iffy form. John Aloisi’s men have only managed to win three of their past nine matches, recording two draws and four losses in the process.

After losing three of their final six regular-season outings, Western finished third on the ladder – three points behind Victory. That meant they had to go into the elimination finals.

Despite seeing just 37% possession, Western United racked up a whopping 22 shots against Wellington Phoenix in the elimination finals. Still, they only managed a narrow 1-0 win.

It is no secret that Western has struggled to find the back of the net this season. In fact, four teams scored more goals than Aloisi’s men during the regular season. They will need to address that issue on Saturday.

It is worth noting, however, that only Victory has a better defensive record than Western in 2021-22. This suggests that the second leg will be another tight and cagey affair.

Prediction for Melbourne Victory vs. Western United

Victory and Western have faced each other on four occasions over the past two seasons. Victory secured two 1-0 wins, while the last regular-season meeting ended in a 1-1 draw. That tells you everything you need to know about the nature of this fixture.

Given that so much is at stake, I expect the second leg to be a low-scoring encounter. Popovic’s men will be happy to sit back and defend their advantage, meaning Western should struggle to find a way through.

Ultimately, I’m confident that Victory will progress to the 2022 A-League Grand Final. The Boys in Blue appear to be slightly stronger than Western in every department.

Melbourne Victory vs. Western United Betting Pick

  • Under 2.5 Goals

Although I’m backing Victory to reach the Grand Final, Saturday’s clash could easily end goalless. For that reason, the under 2.5 goals wager is my pick for Melbourne Victory vs. Western United.

Nine of Victory’s previous 14 A-League games have produced fewer than three goals. If the first leg of this tie is anything to go by, Popovic’s men look set to feature in another low-scoring match.

Ben Morris
Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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