Melbourne vs. Geelong – AFL Preliminary Final (September 10, 2021)
And then there were four.
Following a string of dramatic matches, we have now reached the preliminary finals of the 2021 AFL Finals Series. The first prelim takes place on Friday, September 10, with Melbourne facing Geelong.
The Demons booked their place in the prelims with a dominant 33-point victory over Brisbane. The Cats, on the other hand, lost to Port Adelaide in the qualifiers before overcoming the Giants in the semi-finals.
Anyway, you’re here for my Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats prediction and betting pick, right? Let’s start by checking out the AFL odds for Friday’s clash before finding the best bet for the first AFL prelim.
Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Odds
You probably won’t be surprised to learn that all the top-rated Aussie rules betting sites view Melbourne (1.50) as the favorite to win this one. I mean, the Demons clinched the minor premiership in style before making light work of the Lions last time out.
You would be foolish to write off Geelong (2.63) altogether, though. After all, the Cats reached the grand final last season and have enjoyed far more success than Melbourne in recent years.
Before we settle on a betting pick for Melbourne vs. Geelong, we need to take a closer look at both sides.
Will the Demons Reach the Grand Final?
After sealing the minor premiership in the most dramatic way possible, it was difficult to predict how the Demons would fare against Brisbane in the first qualifying final. As it turned out, they ended up dispatching the Lions with ease.
Brownlow favorite Clayton Oliver starred in Melbourne’s midfield last time out, dominating his Brisbane counterparts. Bailey Fritsch also shone for the Demons, booting four goals.
The minor premiers head into Friday’s clash on a five-match winning streak – and they have only lost one of their previous eight games. They have also chalked up 90+ points in three of their last five outings.
Let’s not forget that Melbourne has already beaten Geelong twice this year, too. After securing a 25-point win over the Cats back in April, the Demons edged out Geelong by four points last month.
If Simon Goodwin’s men can produce a similar kind of performance on Friday, they could break the club’s 21-year grand final drought.
Can Geelong Upset the AFL Odds?
It wouldn’t be unfair to say that Geelong is pretty fortunate to be competing in this year’s preliminary finals. I mean, the Cats were crushed by Port in their qualifier and were then forced to produce a big performance to get past GWS.
Unsurprisingly, Tom Hawkins was the star of the show last time out. The veteran forward kicked five goals against the Giants, underlining his importance to the team.
Hawkins now has 61 goals to his name this season, with Jeremy Cameron (37) and Gary Rohan (32) playing supporting roles. If Hawkins misfires on Friday, his teammates will need to step up.
Due to a questionable end to the regular season, the Cats have only managed to win two of their previous five matches – recording three losses in the process. One of those losses, of course, came against Melbourne.
Prediction for Melbourne vs. Geelong
At the end of the day, it is difficult to predict the outcome of this clash. Sure, Melbourne has already done the double over Geelong in 2021. But the Cats always seem to rise to the occasion when the finals come around.
That said, I can see the Demons getting the better of Geelong for a third time this year. It feels as though Melbourne is the more complete team, while the Cats overreliance on Hawkins could work against them.
The Demons win is my Melbourne vs. Geelong prediction.
My Melbourne vs. Geelong Pick
Melbourne to Win By 1-24 Points3.10
I wouldn’t be surprised if this game went right down to the wire. The Demons claimed a narrow four-point win over the Cats last month, with the winning goal coming after the siren.
I’m confident that Melbourne will come out on top this time around, but it is likely to be another slender victory. For that reason, backing the Demons to win by 1-24 points makes perfect sense to me.
If you’re looking for a safe bet, the Melbourne win at 1.50 is a good option. If you want to make a serious profit, though, I recommend going with the 1-24 points market.