Prediction and Picks for Marion Reneau vs. Miesha Tate (UFC Vegas 31)

| July 14, 2021 5:07 am PDT

Former UFC women’s bantamweight champ Miesha Tate makes her return to the Octagon this Saturday, July 17, against Marion Reneau.

It’s been almost five years since we have last seen “Cupcake” in action, and there is a genuine sense of interest in this fight. 

The Reneau vs. Tate betting odds make the former champ a slight favorite, and I’ll be discussing why a little later. In addition, I’ll be making my prediction and betting picks for Reneau vs. Tate and providing a few of the top bets to target in this fight at UFC Vegas 31.

If that sounds good, let’s get going!

Reneau vs. Tate – Who Wins?

  • Miesha Tate by Decision

I had put together my predictions for the Tate and Reneau fight as soon as the fight was announced.

As it happens, I see nothing in the past few weeks that have changed my mind on things. Tate should have enough to win this bout, despite being away from the Octagon for such an extended period.

The American is still only 34-years old. Reneau, despite being the more active fighter, is ten years older at 44.

But as you will find out later, my prediction for Reneau vs. Tate is not based solely on age or cage rust. So, stick around for that. 

I’m moving on now to the odds for UFC Vegas 31’s co-main; would you like to join me?

Odds for Reneau vs. Tate

Marion Reneau to Win+123
Miesha Tate to Win-143

You can get these odds for the fight at UFC Vegas 31 over at BetOnline.

As mentioned above, Tate’s odds to beat Reneau make her a slight favorite on the night. That is despite almost five years away from competitive action.

But in that time, she has kept herself in shape and looks to be in excellent condition ahead of Saturday’s co-main event. Having opened as a plus money underdog (+115), it’s clear she is as popular as ever.

Reneau’s odds to win are +123, and I can see plenty of bettors backing her to pull it off.

Returning from such an absence is bound to have some effect on Tate. Reneau will be gearing up to use every ounce of experience she has garnered in her career to take advantage of that. 

But with four straight losses, Reneau is arguably the best opponent the Washington-native could have hoped to fight in her comeback bout. 

Best Bets for Reneau vs. Tate

Tate to Win-143
Tate to Win by Decision+137
Fight to End in a Draw+6600

Tate’s odds to win are good enough to recommend.

Clearly, questions are surrounding how she will fare, having been out of the game for so long. But in Reneau, she faces a fighter that won’t ask the type of questions she will struggle to answer.

Although Tate has seven submissions and three KO/TKOs in her professional career, Reneau’s seven losses have come by way of decision.

She is not known to have a shaky chin or to be particularly vulnerable on the mat. Still tough as they come, I don’t see Tate finishing her. Therefore, the odds for Tate by decision make sense to me.

The prop bets for Reneau vs. Tate make for an interesting read. But perhaps the juiciest of them all is betting on this bout ending in a draw. 

Striking power and BJJ are unlikely to make a huge difference in this one. That means we could see a fairly close three-round bout that might go either way.

Hey, you can’t ignore Tate’s five-year absence, nor Reneau’s inability to win a fight as of late. Throw all of this into the mix, and you could have a back and forth bout that is difficult to call for the judges.

At those odds, I think you can part with some small change if you’re keen to take a gamble.

So, about my prediction for Reneau-Tate at UFC Vegas 31…

Why Tate Beats Reneau

I won’t be the only one making predictions for Tate vs. Reneau this weekend that mentions cage rust.

To be completely honest, it is something you have to look out for. As part of a UFC betting strategy, you must factor these things into the equation. I have, but I believe that it won’t play a major part in this fight.

Why? Well, let’s just say that Tate is one of the greatest fighters in the history of the UFC women’s bantamweight division. She has not stalled athletically and has put a lot of work in to make this comeback a success. 

Tate could not have asked for a more straightforward task than taking on Reneau. Of course, there are no easy fights in this game, and I do not mean to disrespect “The Belizean Bruiser” in any way, shape, or form. But she has suffered more bruising in recent years than she has inflicted on her opponents.

Without a win since February 2018, the 44-year-old is likely finished. A loss here should be the final nail in the coffin. But her chance to earn a nice paycheck despite her loss to the fan favorite could mean that everyone is happy—kind of.

All things considered, Tate by decision is the most likely outcome here.

Wrap Up

As I see it, Miesha Tate beats Marion Reneau by way of decision to take her first victory since winning the 135-pound title against Holly Holm in 2016.

Much like the main event of the evening between Islam Makhachev and Thiago Moises, I don’t think the fight will be a barnstormer. But it will be nice to see Cupcake back in the sport. 

Feel free to take a look at more UFC picks ahead of Sunday’s fights. When you’re done, perhaps you’d like to see the remaining top bouts heading our way in July?

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Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

More Posts by Adam Contact Adam

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