Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors – NBA, January 6, 2021

Both teams have started the season well and have positive win records as the Warriors have won four of their seven opening games and the Clippers have won five of their first eight that they have played.

The Clippers have won three of their last five games but they have lost two of the last three which is slightly concerning.

The Warriors have posted back to back wins for the second time this season and have won four of their last five heading into this one.

It’s the Clippers who lead the recent head to head record between the two, winning four and losing just one. Another stat that will go in their favour is that the away team on the day has won this fixture on seven occasions from the last eight match ups.

The spread looks a tiny bit bigger than I anticipated it would be. I thought that it would be around three point here. Let’s break the game down and see where the value is in this one.

The Clippers have had their first small blip of the season losing two of the last three matches played. However they haven’t recorded back to back defeats so far this season and they will certainly want to keep things that way.

On the road they have been very good winning three of their last four played. This includes a fine 112-107 win against a very good Phoenix team last time out. They will be hoping to start this game as well as they did that game as they led by 20 points at half time.

Against the spread the Clippers have done well against the Warriors recently winning four of the last six games. This has certainly been a trend that has been set on the road recently as they have won 14 of the last 18, which is an incredible record. They also seem to like playing on a Wednesday having won five of the last six match ups played on that day.

Their games against the Warriors have been action packed, especially on the road where nine of the last 11 games have gone over the betting total. This has also been the case in four of their last five games against teams in the Pacific Division.

The Clippers have been especially good from range so far this season averaging 41% from three pointers taken which is the second best record in the league. Small Guard Paul George has been a huge contributor to this as he has the fourth highest average of three pointers made per game in the league. However he missed the games against the Spurs last time out and was sorely missed. He remains a doubt for this one as he recovers from an ankle injury.

They are also shooting well from the free throw line with also the second highest average in the NBA behind the Magic.

Defensively they need to tighten up and produce more defensive rebounds as they currently have the fifth lowest count to date. In fact their overall rebounding needs to improve as they have the third lowest average in the league.

They are however holding on to the ball well, controlling games as they have the fifth lowest amount of turn overs this season.

Kawhi Leonard has also been particularly good for the Clippers this season and deserves a special mention as he has the third highest average of steals per game this year. He particularly played well in their loss against the Spurs last time out where he scored 30 points and had 10 assists.

After a slow start to the season the Warriors have started to gain some momentum winning four of their last five match ups.

At home they have made a good start winning two of their first three matches, which in actual fact was the last two that they have played. In both of those wins their offence was particularly good as they posted scores of 137 in both games.

Unlike the Clippers the Warriors don’t appear to like playing on Wednesdays and have lost nine of the last 13 against the spread on that particular day. They also don’t fair well as an underdog winning just two of their last six played.

They have also struggled against teams from across the coast as they have only won four of the last 20 games straight up against Western Conference teams.

One thing you can guarantee when your watching the Warriors is plenty of points as seven of the last ten have gone over the betting total. This is also the case against the Clippers with four of the last five going over and six of the last seven at home has followed this trend.

For a team that scores so many points per game you would expect the Warriors to have a much higher field goal percentage than they do. Their stat also mirrors their defensive record so it’s clear that their games are non-stop end to end action, with very little time for build up play.

However their field goal percentage increases significantly at home, as does their points total which is the second highest average home total in the league.

Although they are very good in attack, if they improve their offensive rebounding which is currently the fifth worst in the league they could be unstoppable.

Defensively they ship many points per game but they are producing plenty of blocks as they have the third highest average in the NBA.

They have great discipline too posting the lowest number of personal fouls in the league. Perhaps they are a little too disciplined and if they applied a slightly more aggressive defensive approach they might not ship so many points.

It’s no surprise that star point guard Stephen Curry is again their main man as he has the second highest points average in the league, followed by the third highest average of three pointers made. He really is on top of his game right now and posted his the highest score of his career two days again when he popped up with a massive 62 points against the Trail Blazers.

I quite like the Warriors in this game, I definitely think they offer more value than the Clippers. However there is a few trends that are putting me off going for them. I think these two offensive teams will push each other along throughout the game which I believe will produce plenty of points so I will take over the betting line here.