Los Angeles Chargers vs. New Orleans Saints – NFL Week 5, 2020

By Admir Aljic in NFL
| October 5, 2020 4:48 am PDT

Week 5’s Monday night matchup features the struggling Los Angeles Chargers and a somewhat inconsistent New Orleans Saints. In their Week 4 loss to Tampa Bay, the Chargers blew a second-quarter 17-point lead. They also took a 3-point lead into the fourth quarter, but that evaporated too. The good news for Chargers fans is that Justin Herbert was pretty good going 20 for 25 for 290 yards and three touchdown passes.

The Saints racked up 30 or more points for the third time in four games this season. New Orleans fell behind early to the Detroit Lions, but put up 35 unanswered points to take a commanding 35-14 lead halfway through the third quarter. Detroit was able to make it closer thanks to a pair of touchdowns, but the Saints survived.

Chargers vs. Saints Odds

Bet Odds
Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 -115
New Orleans Saints -7.5 -105
Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline +287
New Orleans Saints Moneyline -370
Over 52 -105
Under 52 -115

This matchup features a high-flying Saints offense going up against a pretty solid Chargers defense. Los Angeles’ offense is probably looking forward to taking on a porous New Orleans defense too. Even though the Chargers scored 31 points in their Week 4 loss, this offense has struggled to score. In fact, they have only eclipsed the 21-point plateau one other time in their last 10 overall.

Los Angeles Chargers Form

The Chargers are a difficult team to figure out. They barely eke out a victory over the lowly Bengals in Week 1, and then they take the mighty Chiefs into overtime in their 23-20 OT loss in Week 2. They fall flat against Carolina in Week 3 and then more or less hang in with the Bucs in their Week 4 loss.

There are a couple of consistencies in there though. Even though they are 1-3 to start the season, the Chargers are 3-1 ATS. The Under is also 3-1 so far. Interestingly enough, the Chargers are 9-3 ATS in their last dozen games as an underdog of seven or more points and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of any size. They seem to play well against good teams and poorly against weak teams.

New Orleans Saints Form

The Saints have so far failed to live up to expectations. This isn’t on the offense which is averaging 30 points per game. New Orleans also happens to be giving up 30 points per game. They just gave Detroit 29 points, which is the Lions’ highest scoring output of their last 10 games. It sure makes it difficult to pick a side in this game. Fortunately, we have an alternative with the total which is set at 52.

All four Saints games this year have resulted in the Over and the Over is 9-3 in their last 12 overall. It helps that the Saints have scored 30 or more points in 13 of their last 16 games. Here’s where it gets interesting. Despite playing in so many high-scoring contests over the past couple of seasons, the Under is 6-2 in their last eight games when favored by 7 or more.

Chargers vs. Saints Prediction and Pick

The Los Angeles Chargers’ defense is arguably the best defense the Saints will have faced this year. It also happens to be one of the weakest offenses they’ve seen. Neither team can be trusted against the spread which leaves us with the total.

Pick
  • Under 52
    -115

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