Pick for Lightning vs. Avalanche Stanley Cup Finals Game 1 – June 15 (2022)

| June 14, 2022 11:07 am PDT

It’s been a long season, but we are finally here. The Tampa Bay Lightning have returned to the Stanley Cup Finals, but this time they are taking on the mighty Colorado Avalanche. This is shaping up to be an incredible series with the season title on the line.

Tampa Bay is looking to be the first team to win the Stanley Cup for three years in a row since the 1980-1984 New York Islanders (4 wins in a row). It would be an incredible feat and they are certainly talented enough to pull it off.

Colorado is going to be an incredibly tough team to beat though, and they have home ice for 4 of the 7-game series. The ultimate NHL showdown starts this Wednesday at 8:00 p.m ET, so let’s check out the Lightning vs. Avalanche odds for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals.

Lightning vs. Avalanche Odds for Game 1

Site Review Welcome Bonus Lightning Odds Avalanche Odds
Visit BetOnline 60% up to $1,000 (+141) (-156)
Visit MyBookie 100% up to $1,000 (+135) (-160)
Visit Bovada 50% up to $250 (+135) (-160)
Visit BetUS 125% up to $2,500 (+140) (-160)

The Lightning vs. Avalanche betting odds for Game 1 are favoring Colorado by a decent margin. A big reason for this is because of the amount of rest they have gotten compared to Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay is coming off a tough 6-game series with the Rangers and will have just 3 days of rest before the Stanley Cup Finals begin. Colorado was able to sweep the Edmonton Oilers and played last on June 6th (Monday), giving them more than an entire week of rest.

The Avalanche also gets home ice for Games 1, 2, 5, and 7 in this series. It’s not a surprise to see them favored in Game 1 given their location, and don’t be surprised to see them favored in their other home games either.

That doesn’t mean the Lightning can’t win these games, as they are more than capable of doing so. The Lightning vs. Avalanche odds for Game 1 have them as an underdog with plus money, or you can take their +1.5 puck line (-195) for less risk.

With this being the Stanley Cup Finals, you can really go either way when making your Lightning vs. Avalanche predictions. They’ve made it this far, which means either team can win any given game.

The over/under is set at the usual 6 for this game as well, with the Over (-114) favored to hit more than the Under (+104).

Head over to the top NHL betting sites to find these Lightning vs. Avalanche odds for Game 1.

Lightning vs. Avalanche Matchup Preview

Before we get into our official Lightning vs. Avalanche betting picks for Game 1, let’s break down how these teams match up against each other. They’ve both earned the right to be here, but it will all be for nothing if they can’t get the job done.

The Avalanche have the advantage when it comes to rest, but they will probably be missing one of their best players for at least Game 1. That is Nazem Kadri, who had to get thumb surgery after the Oilers’ series.

Kadri was their 3 leading point scorer for them in the 2021-22 season (87), and had 14 points in 13 games in this year’s playoffs. Not having one of their best players in their lineup will hurt, so hopefully, Colorado made a strong plan while being off for 8 days.

As for the Lightning, they are actually getting one of their best players back in their lineup. That would be their center Brayden Point. He missed the entire Rangers’ series, but they were still able to win. He should only make them stronger by returning to their lineup.

It will be interesting to see how these players’ presence (or lack thereof) will impact their lineup.

Let’s see which team will have advantages in their head-to-head team stats;

  • Goals per game: Colorado (3.76)
  • Shots on Goal per game: Colorado (35.1)
  • Shooting Percentage: Tampa Bay (11.2%)
  • Faceoff Percentage: Tampa Bay (50.1%)
  • Goals Allowed per game: Tampa Bay (2.78)
  • Shots on Goal Allowed per game: Tampa Bay (29.8)
  • Penalty Minutes per game: Colorado (9.1)

As you can see, the Avalanche has the offensive advantage, but the Lightning has the defense advantage. It is often said that “defense wins championships,” which is a big reason why the Lightning have won the last two.

Let’s get into our predictions for Game 1, which includes our Lightning vs. Avalanche expert picks for player props.

Lightning vs. Avalanche Predictions for Player Props

Darcy Kuemper 28+ Saves-122
Valeri Nichushkin 3+ Shots on Goal-170
Nikita Kucherov 4+ Shots on Goal+136
Mikhail Sergachev 2+ Shots on Goal+100

Starting off our Lightning vs. Avalanche predictions are our player prop bets. If you are struggling with picking a team to bet on, maybe consider doing some player props instead.

For starters, Darcy Kuemper’s return to the lineup will be a big boost for the Avalanche. He was injured in the last series but could have returned. Colorado opted to rest him with a comfortable series lead, so he should be nice and fresh for Game 1. He’s also faced Tampa Bay twice in the regular season, registering 29 and 36 saves in those games.

Nichushkin is a player who should be getting more shots because of Kadri’s absence. He got 2 and 5 shots in the last two games that Kadri missed. He also was able to get 7 shots in one of the regular season games against Tampa Bay as well, which was with Kadri in the lineup.

The odds for Kucherov to get 3+ shots are (-228) on BetOnline. That means they are expecting him to reach at least 3, so why not one more for (+136) odds? He got 8 the last time he played the Avalanche and has gotten 4+ shots in 3 of his last 6 games.

I’m surprised that the Lightning vs. Avalanche betting odds for Sergachev to get 2+ shots are in positive territory. We can take advantage of that here, and maybe consider hitting 3+ shots line for (+221). He’s reached 2+ shots in 4 of his last 5 games and was able to get 3 and 6 shots against Colorado in the regular season.

Now that we’ve made our Lightning vs. Avalanche picks for player props, let’s make our official game pick.

Lightning vs. Avalanche Pick for Game 1 – 6/15/2022

My Pick: Colorado Avalanche to Win (-156)Bet on the Avalanche on Bovada

At the end of the day, you can roll with either team for your Lightning vs. Avalanche picks. Both teams have been incredible this season and Game 1 really could go either way. Tampa Bay is on the road, but they have plus odds with their moneyline. Colorado is at home while having less value in their odds.

Brayden Point and Darcy Kuemper returning to the lineup should boost both teams, but they also might show a little bit of rust. If that happens, predicting this game becomes even more difficult.

Having 5 more days off and being at home should help the Avalanche, so ultimately I will give them the edge. They’ve fallen short in the last few seasons, but this year feels a little different. Starting off Game 1 with a win would be huge for them.

With that being said, Tampa Bay has proven that they are very capable of winning their third Stanley Cup in as many seasons. Go with your gut here, because both teams can pull it off.

Head over to our sports betting picks page for more recommended bets.

Anthony Haage
Anthony Haage

Anthony is a sports writer for GamblingSites.com covering the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and more. He also covers other various topics such as entertainment, general sports betting tips, and more.

His favorite teams are the Chicago Bears, Bulls, Cubs, and Blackhawks. He also will be a temporary fan of any team if it means winning him bets.

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