Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad Betting Preview – UFC Fight Night, March 13, 2021

| March 8, 2021 9:37 am PDT

Let’s talk betting on Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad ahead of the fights this Saturday, March 13, at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas.

This fight is a tricky one to call. Edwards is ranked #3 in the official UFC welterweight rankings, while Muhammad sits at #13. Understandably, the betting odds for Edwards vs. Muhammad favor the higher-ranked fighter.

But will cage rust be a problem for “Rocky” on the night? If so, the 170-pound contender might be a little overpriced.

I’ll be discussing the odds for Edwards vs. Muhammad, as well as providing the best bets for the bout.

Before I go any deeper on this welterweight scrap, let’s touch on my prediction for Edwards vs. Muhammad.

Edwards vs. Muhammad – Who Wins?

  • Belal Muhammad by Decision

Out of all my Edwards vs. Muhammad predictions, the one that looks more than likely is how the fight will end.

I can’t see this bout ending by stoppage. Therefore, I expect it to go the full five rounds.

Stick with me, for I will expand on my betting pick for Edwards vs. Muhammad a little later.

Before that, check out these odds.

Latest Odds for Edwards vs. Muhammad

Leon Edwards to Win-255
Belal Muhammad to Win+200

The best odds for Edwards vs. Muhammad I have come across so far are available at MyBookie.

With that said, is “Rocky” a good gamble at -255?

Even if your Edwards vs. Muhammad pick is in favor of the Brit, you should consider how cage rust could play a factor in this bout. The UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad headliner is scheduled for five rounds, and the Brit has not fought since July 2019.

Leon Edwards’ UFC Statistics
Category Stat
Takedown Average 1.39
Takedown Accuracy 31%
Takedown Defense 70%
Significant Strikes LPM 2.53
Striking Accuracy 47%
Significant Strikes APM 2.05
Striking Defense 55%
Submission Average 0.4
  • LPM = Landed Per Minute
  • APM = Absorbed Per Minute

If you’re betting on Edwards to beat Muhammad, it’s also worth pointing out that this is the longest gap between fights in his ten-year pro career.

At these odds, the betting value is with Muhammad.

He is on a four-fight streak and is coming off a win over Dhiego Lima at UFC 258 in February.

Not only this, but he will push the pace and have the staying power to dominate the latter stages of the fight.

Best Bets for Edwards vs. Muhammad

  • Muhammad to Win +200
  • Muhammad to Win by Decision (N/A)

I have whittled the top bets for Edwards vs. Muhammad down to the ones you see above.

First up, I see a bet on Muhammad to beat Edwards as the smart move here. This is down to the fact that he has been the more active of the two, and given his excellent cardio, he should have an excellent opportunity to push Edwards to his limits.

The second of my best bets for Edwards vs. Muhammad, as you can see above, is Muhammad by decision.

Before making my Edwards vs. Muhammad pick, I took both guys’ stoppage power into account. Neither are explosive hitters, but they do have solid chins.

I can see this one going all the way, with Muhammad coming on very strong in rounds 4 and 5.

The props for Edwards vs. Muhammad were not available at the time of writing, but you can find them on any of the top UFC betting sites a little closer to the fight.

Why Muhammad Beats Edwards

If you’re gambling real money on Edwards vs. Muhammad, I can’t see better bets than the ones above.

Put simply, I think Edwards will have problems against the Palestinian. I can’t see how he comes into this fight after such a lengthy layoff and wins three of the five rounds.

I am a fan of Edwards and believe that he would come out on top in this matchup if he was 100%. But he won’t be.

If the odds for Edwards vs. Muhammad could speak, they would say that the Brit is the better fighter with the greater chance of winning. At -255, the implied probability for Edwards to win is 71.8%. I don’t like that price at all.

Could Edwards beat Muhammad? Yes, he could. But this fight is 50/50 at best. Realistically, I’d put it at 60% in favor of Muhammad, which makes his odds of +200 look more appealing.

This one will be more of an endurance test than anything else. As such, the smart money is on Muhammad.

More UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad Betting Advice

Well, that’s that. You have the odds, best bets, predictions, and my pick for Edwards vs. Muhammad.

Understandably, you might be wondering what else there is left to share with you.

Well, how about predictions and best bets for all bouts at UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad? Or a rundown of more of the best UFC fights to bet on in March?

I’ll leave you with details of both below.

Enjoy the fights!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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